Can Germany allow Russia to defeat the Austro-Hungarian Empire?

[SolomonW]

Let say that in 1914, Germany decided not to intervene.

Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire go to war.

Russia then had many complaints about the A-H. The Russian government felt
that A-H had betrayed Russia in the Crimenian war, that the A-H Empire was
fanning the Polish and Ukramnian nationalist movement as well as blocking
Russia in the Balkans, and it would want blood.

Now as the odds are that the Austro-Hungarian Empire would suffer a major
defeat it is most likely, the A-H empire will lose almost all its territory
and influence to Russia.

Can Germany allow this to happen?

[Rich Rostrom]

Post by SolomonW
The Russian government felt
that A-H had betrayed Russia in the Crimenian war...

Tsar Nicholas I made the following comment in response.
He asked a courtier "Who were the two stupidest kings
of Poland?" The man had no answer, of course, and so
the Tsar continued: "John Sobieski - and me! Because
we both saved Austria!" (Nicholas had sent Russian
troops to help Austria defeat Hungarian rebels in 1849.)

Post by SolomonW
that the A-H Empire was ... blocking
Russia in the Balkans...

Russia was angry with Austria for annexing Bosnia,
which violated a tacit(?) agreement with Russia.

However...

If Germany does not back Austria to the hilt, issuing
the so-called "blank check", Austria will be constrained
in its actions and will not give Russia provocation that
would result in war. That is, Austria will not force war
on Serbia. They will either issue a much less severe
ultimatum, or they will accept Serbia's near-total
compliance.

Besides that, however, while there was enmity, Russia
didn't want to destroy the Austria Empire or overthrow
the House of Habsburg - that would be a very dangerous
precedent.

[SolomonW]

Post by Rich Rostrom

Post by SolomonW
that the A-H Empire was ... blocking
Russia in the Balkans...

Russia was angry with Austria for annexing Bosnia,
which violated a tacit(?) agreement with Russia.

Which is something A-H would not dare to do without Germany as an ally?

Post by Rich Rostrom
However...
If Germany does not back Austria to the hilt, issuing
the so-called "blank check", Austria will be constrained
in its actions and will not give Russia provocation that
would result in war. That is, Austria will not force war
on Serbia. They will either issue a much less severe
ultimatum, or they will accept Serbia's near-total
compliance.

Probably his would not have lasted. Serbia would soon be under Russian
domination.

Post by Rich Rostrom
Besides that, however, while there was enmity, Russia
didn't want to destroy the Austria Empire or overthrow
the House of Habsburg - that would be a very dangerous
precedent.

It agree. However, a reduced and compliant A-H would be very much in
Russian interest. It would reduce the Polish and more importantly the
Ukramnian nationalist movement. It also would have cleared the way for a
Russian move to the Turkish Straits.

Post by Rich Rostrom
--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.