What if the Americas of 1907 ISOT'ed to the world of 1607 ?

[Rob]

Here is what the political map of the world looks like in consequence:

Loading Image...

The American continents, the Caribbean, Greenland, the Falklands and New South Georgia are from 1907. So are all the lands of the Pacific up to the international dateline.

Everywhere else on the planet is from 1607.

Mean temperatures might be a bit cooler in 1607 than in 1907, I think the Little Ice Age was still on.

To give an idea of western hemisphere political leaderships, we have:

Canada - Sir Wilfrid Laurier

USA - Theodore Roosevelt

Governor of Virginia - Claude A. Swanson

Mexico - Porfirio Diaz

Governor of Bermuda - Sir Josceline Wodehouse

Governor of Bahamas - Sir William Gray-Wilson

President of Cuba - under US occupation - Charles Edward Magoon

President of Haiti - Pierre Nord Alexis

President of Dominican Republic - Ramon Caceres

President of Brazil - Afonso Pena

President of Argentina - Jose Figueroa Alcorta

President of Chile - Pedro Montt

President of Peru - Jose Pardo y Barreda

President of Colombia - Rafael Reyes Prieto

President of Venezuela - Cipriano Castro

For the eastern hemisphere leaderships this year we have:

England & Scotland & Ireland- James I

France - Henry the IV, the Green Gallant

Spain & Portugal - Philip III

Holland - Maurice of Orange

Holy Roman Emperor - Rudolph II

Sweden - Regency years of young Gustavus Adolphus

Poland - Sigismund III Vasa

Russia - Vasiliy IV, time of troubles

Ottoman Sultan - Ahmed I, the Fortunate

Persian Shah - Abbas I

Mogul Emperor - Jahangir

Chinese Emperor - Wanli Emperor

Japanese Shogun - Tokugawa Hidetada, but with his father Ieyasu in "retirement"

[Rob]

The US will lose whatever ships are on station in the Western Pacific, East Atlantic or Mediterranean, but thankfully the "Great White Fleet" hasn't been sent on tour yet by April 17th when this ISOT takes place.

The "Great White Fleet" won't be needed to assert deterrence against a now nonexistent Japanese threat, but it might instead be used to explore the differences in the world. It would be overkill, of course, and smaller USN units could do the same job at a fraction of the cost.

[Rich Rostrom]

Post by Rob
The American continents, the Caribbean, Greenland,
the Falklands and New South Georgia are from 1907.
So are all the lands of the Pacific up to the
international dateline.
Everywhere else on the planet is from 1607.

American and Canadian scholars rush to England to
interview William Shakespeare (OTL, he died in 1613),
look for lost plays, etc.

Canada will assume custody of the orphaned British
colonies.

That leaves some orphaned French, Dutch, and Danish
colonies. The US probably assumes custody of them,
except for St Pierre and Miquelon, which Canada would
take over.

The US would also assume custody of the orphan
colonies in the South Pacific.

[Rob]

Post by Rich Rostrom

Post by Rob
The American continents, the Caribbean, Greenland,
the Falklands and New South Georgia are from 1907.
So are all the lands of the Pacific up to the
international dateline.
Everywhere else on the planet is from 1607.

American and Canadian scholars rush to England to
interview William Shakespeare (OTL, he died in 1613),
look for lost plays, etc.

Great point-

Hadn't thought of that.

Meanwhile, Captain Christopher Newport, John Smith and the passengers of the Virginia Company flotilla headed for Jamestown will be interviewed, filmed and recorded.

The Americans will start to believe their stories once they notice that transoceanic cable messaging has stopped and once a US ship crosses over and back to observe this is not the Britain and Europe he was expecting.

Post by Rich Rostrom
Canada will assume custody of the orphaned British
colonies.

Yes - I think all the Governors of those British territories will seek protection from/federation with Canada.

Theodore Roosevelt and the US Navy can contest it if he wishes, but he could just as well think:

a) The USA does not need/want said Caribbean territories and their populations

b) There are plenty of other opportunities to expand

c) Wilfred Laurier's Canada is a civilized, orderly government that Washington can easily do business with.

d) The Falklands/Malvinas may be an exception. Laurier may want to reach a settlement with Argentina rather than resist Argentine claims.

Greenland? Not British, Roosevelt might want it, but the Canadians are closest from Labrador and Baffin Island.

Post by Rich Rostrom
That leaves some orphaned French, Dutch, and Danish
colonies. The US probably assumes custody of them,
except for St Pierre and Miquelon, which Canada would
take over.
The US would also assume custody of the orphan
colonies in the South Pacific.

---

On the Pacific, I see Theodore Roosevelt's US taking a possibly new strategy. He has modern Hawaii and Midway, but 1907 Guam and the Philippines will be replaced by their 1607 versions.

The default course would be to simply reclaim those territories (and add in any other desired island territories between the western Pacific and Hawaii). Roosevelt will certainly send ships to investigate the situation on those islands and if there is any sign of the US presence.

However, by 1907, there were some bad memories of the Filipino-American war within the U.S. and even Roosevelt was expressing second thoughts about owning the vulnerable territory of the Philippines.

Now, given tech differentials, the US could take and hold the Philippines if it wishes, but the US public and Roosevelt would still regard the islands as unassimilable.

So I think Roosevelt would promote an alternate Pacific expansion strategy-

1) The US leaves the Philippines alone after confirming its the 1607 Spanish version, however, the US claims Guam and all of Micronesia, which are less populous and easier to manage. Bases in Saipan and Guam position the US close enough to promote and protect Far Eastern trade.

2) However, this is balanced out by a new, more aggressive, northern Pacific strategy. Roosevelt decides to annex the Russian Far Eastern Coast, Kurils, Sakhalin and Hokkaido as they are lightly populated and he thinks they offer a frontier that Americans actually could settle and assimilate, unlike the Philippines and other tropical areas. Plus, these also offer bases for protection of Far Eastern trade.

3) Roosevelt probably also makes a preemptive claim to Australia and New Zealand for the United States, regardless of what Canada says, because it is likewise a frontier Americans could settle and assimilate.

Local opposition in all these areas is probably very weak compared to local opposition the US faced in the 1899-1902 Philippines, would face in Latin American interventions, or would face in the downtime Philippines.

The only exception/more dangerous frontier would be the southern portions of the Russian Pacific Coast, near the lands of the growing and militarizing Manchu peoples.

[The Horny Goat]

On Sun, 25 Feb 2018 08:47:47 -0800 (PST), Rob

Post by Rob
Yes - I think all the Governors of those British territories will seek protection from/federation with Canada.

I would think TR takes what he wants and Canada gets the leavings

Post by Rob
a) The USA does not need/want said Caribbean territories and their populations
b) There are plenty of other opportunities to expand
c) Wilfred Laurier's Canada is a civilized, orderly government that Washington can easily do business with.
d) The Falklands/Malvinas may be an exception. Laurier may want to reach a settlement with Argentina rather than resist Argentine claims.

Likely true - the Canadian navy pre WW1 was pretty small.

Post by Rob
Greenland? Not British, Roosevelt might want it, but the Canadians are closest from Labrador and Baffin Island.

Post by Rich Rostrom
That leaves some orphaned French, Dutch, and Danish
colonies. The US probably assumes custody of them,
except for St Pierre and Miquelon, which Canada would
take over.

Don't automatically assume that - French fishermen were fishing the
west and south coasts of Newfoundland pretty much continuously for 200
years up until WW1.

Post by Rob

Post by Rich Rostrom
The US would also assume custody of the orphan
colonies in the South Pacific.

On the Pacific, I see Theodore Roosevelt's US taking a possibly new strategy. He has modern Hawaii and Midway, but 1907 Guam and the Philippines will be replaced by their 1607 versions.
The default course would be to simply reclaim those territories (and add in any other desired island territories between the western Pacific and Hawaii). Roosevelt will certainly send ships to investigate the situation on those islands and if there is any sign of the US presence.
However, by 1907, there were some bad memories of the Filipino-American war within the U.S. and even Roosevelt was expressing second thoughts about owning the vulnerable territory of the Philippines.
Now, given tech differentials, the US could take and hold the Philippines if it wishes, but the US public and Roosevelt would still regard the islands as unassimilable.
So I think Roosevelt would promote an alternate Pacific expansion strategy-

I agree. Bear in mind that the Canadian Pacific navy in that era was
at most 5 ships (and small ones at that - nothing as large as a
cruiser). Nor do I see any of the Latin American countries playing a
role outside their home areas.

The now worked out coal mines near Nanaimo on Vancouver Island would
be going full tilt to serve the Pacific fleets. Thus making Robert
Dunsmuir even more important than in OTL. He would be "King of
Vancouver Island" in all but name!

Post by Rob
1) The US leaves the Philippines alone after confirming its the 1607 Spanish version, however, the US claims Guam and all of Micronesia, which are less populous and easier to manage. Bases in Saipan and Guam position the US close enough to promote and protect Far Eastern trade.
2) However, this is balanced out by a new, more aggressive, northern Pacific strategy. Roosevelt decides to annex the Russian Far Eastern Coast, Kurils, Sakhalin and Hokkaido as they are lightly populated and he thinks they offer a frontier that Americans actually could settle and assimilate, unlike the Philippines and other tropical areas. Plus, these also offer bases for protection of Far Eastern trade.

Why not Japan?

Post by Rob
3) Roosevelt probably also makes a preemptive claim to Australia and New Zealand for the United States, regardless of what Canada says, because it is likewise a frontier Americans could settle and assimilate.

Agreed.

Post by Rob
Local opposition in all these areas is probably very weak compared to local opposition the US faced in the 1899-1902 Philippines, would face in Latin American interventions, or would face in the downtime Philippines.
The only exception/more dangerous frontier would be the southern portions of the Russian Pacific Coast, near the lands of the growing and militarizing Manchu peoples.

I would think TR would be interested in areas that could be swiftly
industrialized particularly with shipbuilding industries.

[Rob]

Post by The Horny Goat

Post by Rob
2) However, this is balanced out by a new, more aggressive, northern Pacific strategy. Roosevelt decides to annex the Russian Far Eastern Coast, Kurils, Sakhalin and Hokkaido as they are lightly populated and he thinks they offer a frontier that Americans actually could settle and assimilate, unlike the Philippines and other tropical areas. Plus, these also offer bases for protection of Far Eastern trade.

Why not Japan?

Too many Japanese live there, and TR would have to figure out what to do with them. He was not an optimist on racial integration. Hokkaido is conceivably digestible because its ethnic Japanese population is small and its Ainu population is small and "savage". Honshu, Kyushu and Shikoku on the other hand have millions of people even in the 1600s.

If Roosevelt's imperial vision includes colonies with large subject populations as no obstacle, then I guess he'd colonize Japan, but also the Ryukyus and Philippines and basically anything else in the world he wanted.

[Rich Rostrom]

Post by Rob
On the Pacific, I see Theodore Roosevelt's US taking
a possibly new strategy. He has modern Hawaii and
Midway, but 1907 Guam and the Philippines will be
replaced by their 1607 versions.
The default course would be to simply reclaim those
territories...

No, the default course is to leave those territories
alone. The US doesn't need them in anything like the
sense of OTL, and doesn't want to rush into overseas
entanglements.

The astonishing event that just happened will make
Americans very cautious (except for those who become
manically active).

Post by Rob
So I think Roosevelt would promote an alternate
Pacific expansion strategy-
1) The US leaves the Philippines alone...

Right.

Post by Rob
the US claims Guam and all of Micronesia...

The US will want to establish naval bases and coaling
stations in various places. But this will be done with
minimum footprint.

Post by Rob
2) However, this is balanced out by a new, more
aggressive, northern Pacific strategy. Roosevelt
decides to annex the Russian Far Eastern Coast,
Kurils, Sakhalin and Hokkaido...

Not in a million years. These areas aren't necessary to
the US and entangle the US overseas.

Also - Roosevelt is President, not king-emperor for life.
He could propose such actions, but without Congressional
approval nothing happens.

Post by Rob
3) Roosevelt probably also makes a preemptive claim
to Australia and New Zealand for the United States...

I doubt this too. The US doesn't need another frontier,
nor want to settle new lands.

[Chrysi Cat]

Post by Rich Rostrom

Post by Rob
On the Pacific, I see Theodore Roosevelt's US taking
a possibly new strategy. He has modern Hawaii and
Midway, but 1907 Guam and the Philippines will be
replaced by their 1607 versions.
The default course would be to simply reclaim those
territories...

No, the default course is to leave those territories
alone. The US doesn't need them in anything like the
sense of OTL, and doesn't want to rush into overseas
entanglements.
The astonishing event that just happened will make
Americans very cautious (except for those who become
manically active).

Post by Rob
So I think Roosevelt would promote an alternate
Pacific expansion strategy-
1) The US leaves the Philippines alone...

Right.

Post by Rob
the US claims Guam and all of Micronesia...

The US will want to establish naval bases and coaling
stations in various places. But this will be done with
minimum footprint.

Post by Rob
2) However, this is balanced out by a new, more
aggressive, northern Pacific strategy. Roosevelt
decides to annex the Russian Far Eastern Coast,
Kurils, Sakhalin and Hokkaido...

Not in a million years. These areas aren't necessary to
the US and entangle the US overseas.
Also - Roosevelt is President, not king-emperor for life.
He could propose such actions, but without Congressional
approval nothing happens.

Post by Rob
3) Roosevelt probably also makes a preemptive claim
to Australia and New Zealand for the United States...

I doubt this too. The US doesn't need another frontier,
nor want to settle new lands.

Wait--you think *the United States* "doesn't need another frontier"?
People have been whining about no longer having anywhere to civilise
since about 10 minutes after the frontier was originally declared closed!

[Rob]

Post by Rich Rostrom

Post by Rob
On the Pacific, I see Theodore Roosevelt's US taking
a possibly new strategy. He has modern Hawaii and
Midway, but 1907 Guam and the Philippines will be
replaced by their 1607 versions.
The default course would be to simply reclaim those
territories...

No, the default course is to leave those territories
alone. The US doesn't need them in anything like the
sense of OTL, and doesn't want to rush into overseas
entanglements.
The astonishing event that just happened will make
Americans very cautious (except for those who become
manically active).

Post by Rob
So I think Roosevelt would promote an alternate
Pacific expansion strategy-
1) The US leaves the Philippines alone...

Right.

Post by Rob
the US claims Guam and all of Micronesia...

The US will want to establish naval bases and coaling
stations in various places. But this will be done with
minimum footprint.

Post by Rob
2) However, this is balanced out by a new, more
aggressive, northern Pacific strategy. Roosevelt
decides to annex the Russian Far Eastern Coast,
Kurils, Sakhalin and Hokkaido...

Not in a million years. These areas aren't necessary to
the US and entangle the US overseas.
Also - Roosevelt is President, not king-emperor for life.
He could propose such actions, but without Congressional
approval nothing happens.

Post by Rob
3) Roosevelt probably also makes a preemptive claim
to Australia and New Zealand for the United States...

I doubt this too. The US doesn't need another frontier,
nor want to settle new lands.
--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

What is the Rooseveltian policy towards Europe, Asia and Africa?

What does he care about and do, especially if the obviously different "circumstances" allow him to run for and win a third term?

Regardless of he wants, I see there being ethnic pressure groups. This will only be an activity for a small minority, but I think Fenians will definitely try to keep Ireland out of England's grip.

Small groups of Germans, Italians, Jews, Chinese and Greeks may have some filibuster-y style agendas related to their downtime homelands and communities.

A majority of the American elite would at least have sympathy for the Protestant side in the Dutch Revolt and Thirty Years War.

Despite mutual suspicion between 1907 American Catholics and Protestants I think that at least some forward-thinking clergymen will try to appeal for a halt to religious wars and cite America as an example of tolerance combined with piety.

---What will the policy of Canada, Mexico and the ABC powers be towards the other continents? I would think most Latin American governments would be more sympathetic to the Catholic cause, but the region could be a source of would be filibusters and "conquistadors"....

---What does this scenario do to the USA-and western hemisphere- economy?

What US industries and enterprises were most dependent on overseas markets at the time? Will any major manufacturing industries dependent and take a big hit? Or were US exports mainly agricultural then?

If the US economy continues to grow or resumes growth after an adjustment period, and still has a rising demand for labor, how will it be sourced?

Would 17th century Europeans from England, Italy, Germany, etc. be any good as industrial laborers in the early 1900s USA? Or would African-Americans and Appalachian whites and Puerto Ricans and Mexicans be the labor recruits of choice for US industry?

I think foreign governments would want to buy US tech, but what would they pay with, that the US would accept?

If America is looking to market some of its production overseas (beyond Canada and Latin America of course) what would its most promising exports be? Cigarettes and spirits and personal weapons and tools I suppose.

...and then there's slavery. European ships from are going to be heading to Latin America and the Caribbean with cargoes of slaves. The ones who try to dock in Haiti are in for a nasty surprise, but generally, I suspect that local governments throughout the Americas will impound or destroy the slave ships, grant asylum to the first batch of slaves recovered and then work very hard to not have slave ships show up.

Racial progressiveness should not be expected but neither would the slave trade be tolerated by governments. The governments won't want to become responsible for slaves incidentally freed, but would probably rely on local black church congregations and charities to sponsor them. In the new hybrid economy that emerges though, inevitably downtimers, African and Asian and European, will be victims of at least a degree of criminal human trafficking.

The rising transatlantic slave trade as we knew it in the 1600s basically withers in its nursery however.

[e***@gmail.com]

Post by Rob
https://i.imgur.com/w5QYfvO.gif
The American continents, the Caribbean, Greenland, the Falklands and New South Georgia are from 1907. So are all the lands of the Pacific up to the international dateline.
Everywhere else on the planet is from 1607.
Mean temperatures might be a bit cooler in 1607 than in 1907, I think the Little Ice Age was still on.
Canada - Sir Wilfrid Laurier
USA - Theodore Roosevelt
Governor of Virginia - Claude A. Swanson
Mexico - Porfirio Diaz
Governor of Bermuda - Sir Josceline Wodehouse
Governor of Bahamas - Sir William Gray-Wilson
President of Cuba - under US occupation - Charles Edward Magoon
President of Haiti - Pierre Nord Alexis
President of Dominican Republic - Ramon Caceres
President of Brazil - Afonso Pena
President of Argentina - Jose Figueroa Alcorta
President of Chile - Pedro Montt
President of Peru - Jose Pardo y Barreda
President of Colombia - Rafael Reyes Prieto
President of Venezuela - Cipriano Castro
England & Scotland & Ireland- James I
France - Henry the IV, the Green Gallant
Spain & Portugal - Philip III
Holland - Maurice of Orange
Holy Roman Emperor - Rudolph II
Sweden - Regency years of young Gustavus Adolphus
Poland - Sigismund III Vasa
Russia - Vasiliy IV, time of troubles
Ottoman Sultan - Ahmed I, the Fortunate
Persian Shah - Abbas I
Mogul Emperor - Jahangir
Chinese Emperor - Wanli Emperor
Japanese Shogun - Tokugawa Hidetada, but with his father Ieyasu in "retirement"

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