Discussion:
The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth hereditary monarchy
(too old to reply)
Alex Milman
2018-02-16 19:50:59 UTC
Permalink
When in 1569 the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth is created the visiting ASBs
made it a hereditary monarchy with a strong royal power (let's say, equal to one in its Muscovite counterpart).

They also provided for a continued (for a century or so) Jagiellonian dynasty.
Rob
2018-02-17 17:22:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by Alex Milman
When in 1569 the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth is created the visiting ASBs
made it a hereditary monarchy with a strong royal power (let's say, equal to one in its Muscovite counterpart).
They also provided for a continued (for a century or so) Jagiellonian dynasty.
Centralization and a continuous dynasty means no devastation of the "deluge" in the next century.

Poland may also have a bit of a navy and end up with a string of Caribbean and African colonies/trading posts as persistent as Sweden's in OTL.

If lucky, Poland can over time come to rule Moldavia or Ukraine, thus becoming and remaining an "intermarium" power.

A centralized Poland will change the complexion of the 30 years war and all HRE history over that time.

100+ years of centralized hereditary monarchy by the Jagiellonians may mean that the populace and nobility are so used to that form of monarchy that when the line dies out, despite any "time of troubles" a new king and dynasty is selected that also rules as a hereditary, centralized state without nobility and Senate gaining absurd veto powers.

Longer term knock on effect of this is that the PLC lasts until the 20th century and is not partitioned even if its power ebbs and flows.

Poland ranks as one of the great powers of Europe, more less of the weight that Austria had in European politics between 1715 and 1915.
Alex Milman
2018-02-17 20:55:19 UTC
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Post by Rob
Post by Alex Milman
When in 1569 the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth is created the visiting ASBs
made it a hereditary monarchy with a strong royal power (let's say, equal to one in its Muscovite counterpart).
They also provided for a continued (for a century or so) Jagiellonian dynasty.
Centralization and a continuous dynasty means no devastation of the "deluge" in the next century.
You are skipping a big part of a relevant history. At the time of Sigismund III the Commonwealth was the biggest _European_ state with, quite possibly, the most powerful army (or at least one of the most powerful). Sigismund's son was accepted (for a while) as a candidate to the throne of Moscow, the Poles captured Smolensk, Moscow and a big chunk of the European Russia, had been successfully fighting the Ottomans and beating the Swedes (even led by Gustav Adolph).

And all of the above had been crumbling because of the systematic absence of the funds. The Sejm was refusing to fund anything that would strengthen the royal power so the military successes against the Swedes ended up with nothing because the troops had not been paid (and you can figure out the rest). The Polish troops had been holding Moscow but Sigismund could not raise enough troops to make a meaningful conquest (unlike his son, he was never accepted by the Russians) and it seems that the individual "entrepreneurs" had a much greater success in raising their own private bands.

The Deluge was something of an icing on the cake (followed by more cream on the top): it was preceded by the "Cossack Wars" and then war with Russia with a resulting loss of a big part of Ukraine and Smolensk and devastation of a big part of Lithuania.


And after the Deluge there was Lubomirski Rokosz which put an end to the attempts of the royal power to restrict "the Golden Freedoms". BTW, Sobieski, the future hero of Vienna, managed to screw the royal cause ...er... "royally" by snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and later, as a king, suffered from the same problem: Sejm was not going to fund any enterprise which may strengthen the royal power.

As a result, by the end of the 1st half of the XVIII the Commonwealth became something of a joke: the foreign armies marched across it with an impunity.
Post by Rob
Poland may also have a bit of a navy and end up with a string of Caribbean and African colonies/trading posts as persistent as Sweden's in OTL.
Oh please, your "colonial itch" is hardly applicable in that case.
Post by Rob
If lucky, Poland can over time come to rule Moldavia or Ukraine,
Errrrr.... It WAS ruling Ukraine for many centuries so the change would be in NOT LOSING it.

As for Moldavia, the problem was the same: Sejm's reluctance to fund these wars.
Post by Rob
thus becoming and remaining an "intermarium" power.
The Commonwealth did have outlets on the Baltic Sea but as far as the Black Sea was involved, remember who controlled the Straits?
Post by Rob
A centralized Poland will change the complexion of the 30 years war and all HRE history over that time.
Well, IF the Commonwealth is not distracted by the "Eastern affairs" (wars with Russia, Cossacks and Ottomans), it could contribute considerable numbers of the high-quality cavalry to the Catholic cause. It also can be argued that a strong royal power would mean development of a strong national infantry: there were attempts during the reigns of Stephen Batory and Sobieski handicapped by the usual problem.
Post by Rob
100+ years of centralized hereditary monarchy by the Jagiellonians may mean that the populace and nobility are so used to that form of monarchy that when the line dies out, despite any "time of troubles" a new king and dynasty is selected that also rules as a hereditary, centralized state without nobility and Senate gaining absurd veto powers.
Yes, this sounds reasonable.
Post by Rob
Longer term knock on effect of this is that the PLC lasts until the 20th century and is not partitioned even if its power ebbs and flows.
Possible even if not guaranteed. Most probably some of the Eastern lands would be lost, including Smolensk and Eastern Ukraine: power of the Muscovite state had been steadily growing.
Post by Rob
Poland ranks as one of the great powers of Europe, more less of the weight that Austria had in European politics between 1715 and 1915.
Well, THIS is excessively optimistic: HRE would almost certainly "overweight" it politically and the same goes for the Russian Empire. But it may still exist on the map by the early XX: there were certain advantages in having a buffer state as long as that state could maintain a minimally acceptable level of internal order.
Rich Rostrom
2018-02-28 22:59:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by Alex Milman
When in 1569 the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth is
created the visiting ASBs made it a hereditary
monarchy with a strong royal power (let's say, equal
to one in its Muscovite counterpart).
They also provided for a continued (for a century or
so) Jagiellonian dynasty.
This will end a lot of foreign meddling in Poland, and
foreign princes getting elected, and the peculiar
effect of Protestant princes (Swedes and Saxons)
converting to Catholic for Poland. (Is Warsaw worth a
mass?)

It aborts the rise of Sweden to semi-Great Power status,
IMHO. I don't recall Sweden taking over any of Poland,
but I think Strong Poland is going to block Sweden's
ambitions in the Baltic anyway.

Prussia gets properly absorbed into Poland. In 1569 it
is under a separate branch of the Hohenzollerns. The
union with Brandenburg came after the 1594 marriage of
the Margrave of Brandenburg with the eldest daughter
of the sonless and later demented Duke of Prussia.

Strong Poland probably bars this marriage.

If not... it is reminiscent of the English holdings in
late medieval France, except that Prussia is not merely
a possession of a German prince, it is also a German
country. OTL, Poland's control was shaky, and Prussia
eased away. ATL, Poland is strong and prevents any such.

Other possibilities...

Strong Poland may get annoyed enough with Turkish and
Tatar invasions of its SE to launch a _major_ invasion
of the Black Sea coastlands; OTL Poland never had the
muscle.
--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.
Alex Milman
2018-03-01 00:29:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rich Rostrom
Post by Alex Milman
When in 1569 the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth is
created the visiting ASBs made it a hereditary
monarchy with a strong royal power (let's say, equal
to one in its Muscovite counterpart).
They also provided for a continued (for a century or
so) Jagiellonian dynasty.
This will end a lot of foreign meddling in Poland, and
foreign princes getting elected, and the peculiar
effect of Protestant princes (Swedes and Saxons)
converting to Catholic for Poland. (Is Warsaw worth a
mass?)
Funny as it may sound, the answer is yes. Personally, I have no idea what could be a valid reason for Elector of Saxony, one of the richest principalities in Germany, to fight for the title of a King of Poland. Of course, the title was higher but an attached executive power was close to zero and the economic "advantages" probably were on a negative side.

Of course, it can be argued that the representatives of Wasa dynasty simply did not have too many options after Sigismund had been thrown out of Sweden (the kings of which, at that time, did not fare noticeably better in the terms of power or wealth).
Post by Rich Rostrom
It aborts the rise of Sweden to semi-Great Power status,
IMHO. I don't recall Sweden taking over any of Poland,
but I think Strong Poland is going to block Sweden's
ambitions in the Baltic anyway.
This is a very interesting subject. In OTL initially, the Commonwealth could hold its ground and even gain some of the easy to grab Baltic lands (disbanding of the Livonian Order and Livonian War). Of course, even then it was much easier to take territories occupied by the Muscovite state, especially during the Time of Troubles. BTW, at that time the Commonwealth scored some military successes against the Swedes (especially when they were handicapped by unenthusiastic Muscovite troops led by extremely untalented commander, brother of Tsar Vasili Shuisky; the picture was different when much more capable Scopin-Shuisky was in charge).

They were reasonably successful militarily even against Gustav Adolph in 1626 - 29 but due to the lack of funds had to give up big part of Livonia with Riga.

So we can assume that with a greater royal power and its ability to raise funds needed for conduct of the war (and the monarchs not being complete imbeciles :-)), they _could_ hold Livonia.

OTOH, as usually, the Hell is in the details. It is also possible to assume that the Swedish reforms of GA eventually could prove to be more effective then whatever we can assume as the potential Polish reforms. The Poles had a "disadvantage" of having a superb (and generally victorious) cavalry so the main stress of their efforts was in this area with infantry being a remote second. Also keep in mind that the shape of their military was to a great degree defined by a need to confront the Eastern opponents, the Ottomans, Tatars and Muscovites. For the first two the Cossack infantry was adequate (with a striking force provided by Commonwealth cavalry) and the Muscovite armies of the XVI - mid-XVII had been handicapped by the numerous factors which allowed to defeat them without major reforms.

To make a long story short, a stronger Commonwealth could result in a longer Polish-Swedish War with a resulting delay of the Swedish entry into the 30YW. Or, if GA decided to interfere into the German affairs without achieving all his goals on the Baltic coast (well, he failed to take Danzig), then the conflict could be renewed after the 30YW as alt-Deluge. Possession of the region meant a very substantial income from taxing Polish and Russian trade. By Peace of Altmark the Swedes got the right to tax Poland's trade on the Baltic (3.5% on the value of goods) and by the earlier peace with Moscow they had been getting income from the Russian goods traded through Narva and other ports.
Post by Rich Rostrom
Prussia gets properly absorbed into Poland. In 1569 it
is under a separate branch of the Hohenzollerns. The
union with Brandenburg came after the 1594 marriage of
the Margrave of Brandenburg with the eldest daughter
of the sonless and later demented Duke of Prussia.
Strong Poland probably bars this marriage.
And grabs the area at the 1st opportunity.

Also don't forget the interests on the other side of a border. Almost no matter what was going in the Commonwealth, a major crisis in the Muscovite state after the death of Ivan IV had been almost inevitable: country went into a severe economic crisis and popularity of a new dynasty was quite low.

If at that time the Commonwealth has a strong monarchy it could grab a much greater territory than in OTL and, providing a current monarch is not a lunatic like Sigismund III, Polish prince of the Russian throne would be a clear possibility.
Post by Rich Rostrom
If not... it is reminiscent of the English holdings in
late medieval France, except that Prussia is not merely
a possession of a German prince, it is also a German
country.
But the Ducal Prussia was not a part of the HRE. OTOH, if example of Danzig is applicable, the ethnic Germans could be Polish patriots (at least this was the case in 1626 - 29 and during the Deluge).
Post by Rich Rostrom
OTL, Poland's control was shaky, and Prussia
eased away. ATL, Poland is strong and prevents any such.
Indeed.
Post by Rich Rostrom
Other possibilities...
Strong Poland may get annoyed enough with Turkish and
Tatar invasions of its SE to launch a _major_ invasion
of the Black Sea coastlands; OTL Poland never had the
muscle.
It was fighting on a regular basis in Moldavia and Wladislaw IV was planning expansion of the Cossack "reester" with exactly that purpose. Understandably, this idea produced no enthusiasm in the Sejm.
m***@gmail.com
2018-03-17 12:59:26 UTC
Permalink
Post by Alex Milman
When in 1569 the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth is created the visiting ASBs
made it a hereditary monarchy with a strong royal power (let's say, equal to one in its Muscovite counterpart).
They also provided for a continued (for a century or so) Jagiellonian dynasty.
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