WolfBear
2018-03-09 00:57:26 UTC
What would the post-World War II territorial settlement have looked like if France wouldn't have fallen in 1940 (or afterwards)?
As for my own thoughts on this, I'd like to create two separate scenarios--one for a scenario where the Schwarze Kapelle succeeds in removing Hitler and the Nazis from power and one where the Schwarze Kapelle fails to do this:
Scenario #1: A Schwarze Kapelle Anti-Nazi Coup Succeeds
In such a scenario, Germany will completely withdraw from Danzig and all of Poland and plebiscites will be held in both Danzig and the Polish Corridor. (I suspect that Britain and France would agree to these plebiscites due to a likely lack of desire on their part to bleed themselves dry in an attempt to capture all of Germany.) Also, plebiscites might be held in the Sudetenland, the rest of Czechia, rump Slovakia, Austria, and the German-majority parts of Eupen and Malmedy (in Belgium) to determine their future status. For all of these plebiscites (including in Danzig and the Polish Corridor), both people who lived there before 1918 (even if they moved elsewhere later on) and people who moved to these areas between 1919 and 1938/1939 would be allowed to vote in these plebiscites. Also, a plebiscite might be held in the Memelland as well--with the choices being remaining part of Germany or becoming a League of Nations territory until Lithuania's independence is reestablished (whenever that will be--after all, the Soviet Union is certainly going to stay in Lithuania for decades).
Basically, what I think that the ultimate make-up of Europe in such a scenario is going to be is this: Germany will acquire the German-majority parts of Eupen and Malmedy, Danzig, and *perhaps* the southern part of the Polish Corridor. In addition, Germany will keep the Memelland, the Sudetenland, and Austria but will end up withdrawing from the rest of Czechia--with an independent Czech state being set up there. I don't know if Czechia would reunify with rump Slovakia, though; indeed, it would probably depend on what exactly the Slovaks will want. Also, Germany would keep all of the territories which it controlled in 1937 and Slovakia would return Teschen (sp?) to Poland. Finally, Germany would obviously remain united in this TL. As for Subcarpathian Ruthenia, I suspect that Britain and France would let Hungary keep it since Hungary--unlike Germany and Slovakia--has not been at war with Britain and France.
As for the Soviet Union, it would be allowed to keep its territorial gains in eastern Poland, the Baltic states, and--if it will still go for this--Bessarabia and Bukovina due to the fact that none of the Great Powers would actually have the appetite to go to war against the Soviet Union in this TL.
Scenario #2: A Schwarze Kapelle Anti-Nazi Coup Fails
In such a scenario, we see a failure similar to the one is July 1944 in our TL. In this scenario, Britain and France are going to be extremely angry at Germany due to the fact that they would have bled themselves dry getting to Berlin. Thus, a vindictive peace--including in terms of territory (which is what the focus is in regards to this question)--is extremely likely for Germany in this TL.
Overall, what I see is this--France outright annexes the Saarland and expels the entire ethnic German population there (France didn't do this in our TL, but please keep in mind that France wouldn't have fallen in 1940 in this TL and thus would have experienced much more bleeding during World War II--thus resulting in even more French anger at Germany in comparison to our TL). As for Austria, it is detached from Germany and its independence is restored (with the Austrian elite being told that if they cooperate, Austria won't be treated as an aggressor country but will rather be treated as Nazi Germany's first victim). Meanwhile, Czechoslovakia gets back the Sudetenland and the ethnic German population there is expelled en masse. As for Poland, it acquires all of East Prussia, Danzig, and *at least* eastern Pomerania and the German part of Upper Silesia. However, since the Jews in German-occupied Poland (and elsewhere in German-occupied Europe as well, of course) are still murdered en masse in the Holocaust in this TL, Poland might insist on even more German territory as "compensation" for losing a large part of its Jewish population (the Jews in eastern Poland will survive the Holocaust in this TL, but will live under Soviet rule). Thus, what we could ultimately end up with in this TL is a Poland which looks very similar to our TL's post-1945 Poland. Sure, Germany is going to hate these borders, but after bleeding themselves dry in order to get to Berlin, Britain and France are certainly not going to give a damn what Germany thinks.
Thus, in the grand scheme of things, Germany might very well see its borders become very similar to its borders after 1945 in our TL--except that Germany won't be divided in this TL and will also lose the Saarland to France. Also, while this is probably unlikely, if Britain and France want to get really nasty, they could try partitioning Germany and reversing Germany's 1871 unification.
Also, as a side note, in large part due to the lack of Operation Barbarossa in this TL (of course, the entire Jewish population in Hungary, Romania, Yugoslavia, Greece, and northern Italy is also going to be spared in this TL), the Holocaust in this TL is about two times less severe than it was in our TL--something which is going to make itself felt in Israel after it is created in this TL.
Anyway, any thoughts on everything that I wrote here?
As for my own thoughts on this, I'd like to create two separate scenarios--one for a scenario where the Schwarze Kapelle succeeds in removing Hitler and the Nazis from power and one where the Schwarze Kapelle fails to do this:
Scenario #1: A Schwarze Kapelle Anti-Nazi Coup Succeeds
In such a scenario, Germany will completely withdraw from Danzig and all of Poland and plebiscites will be held in both Danzig and the Polish Corridor. (I suspect that Britain and France would agree to these plebiscites due to a likely lack of desire on their part to bleed themselves dry in an attempt to capture all of Germany.) Also, plebiscites might be held in the Sudetenland, the rest of Czechia, rump Slovakia, Austria, and the German-majority parts of Eupen and Malmedy (in Belgium) to determine their future status. For all of these plebiscites (including in Danzig and the Polish Corridor), both people who lived there before 1918 (even if they moved elsewhere later on) and people who moved to these areas between 1919 and 1938/1939 would be allowed to vote in these plebiscites. Also, a plebiscite might be held in the Memelland as well--with the choices being remaining part of Germany or becoming a League of Nations territory until Lithuania's independence is reestablished (whenever that will be--after all, the Soviet Union is certainly going to stay in Lithuania for decades).
Basically, what I think that the ultimate make-up of Europe in such a scenario is going to be is this: Germany will acquire the German-majority parts of Eupen and Malmedy, Danzig, and *perhaps* the southern part of the Polish Corridor. In addition, Germany will keep the Memelland, the Sudetenland, and Austria but will end up withdrawing from the rest of Czechia--with an independent Czech state being set up there. I don't know if Czechia would reunify with rump Slovakia, though; indeed, it would probably depend on what exactly the Slovaks will want. Also, Germany would keep all of the territories which it controlled in 1937 and Slovakia would return Teschen (sp?) to Poland. Finally, Germany would obviously remain united in this TL. As for Subcarpathian Ruthenia, I suspect that Britain and France would let Hungary keep it since Hungary--unlike Germany and Slovakia--has not been at war with Britain and France.
As for the Soviet Union, it would be allowed to keep its territorial gains in eastern Poland, the Baltic states, and--if it will still go for this--Bessarabia and Bukovina due to the fact that none of the Great Powers would actually have the appetite to go to war against the Soviet Union in this TL.
Scenario #2: A Schwarze Kapelle Anti-Nazi Coup Fails
In such a scenario, we see a failure similar to the one is July 1944 in our TL. In this scenario, Britain and France are going to be extremely angry at Germany due to the fact that they would have bled themselves dry getting to Berlin. Thus, a vindictive peace--including in terms of territory (which is what the focus is in regards to this question)--is extremely likely for Germany in this TL.
Overall, what I see is this--France outright annexes the Saarland and expels the entire ethnic German population there (France didn't do this in our TL, but please keep in mind that France wouldn't have fallen in 1940 in this TL and thus would have experienced much more bleeding during World War II--thus resulting in even more French anger at Germany in comparison to our TL). As for Austria, it is detached from Germany and its independence is restored (with the Austrian elite being told that if they cooperate, Austria won't be treated as an aggressor country but will rather be treated as Nazi Germany's first victim). Meanwhile, Czechoslovakia gets back the Sudetenland and the ethnic German population there is expelled en masse. As for Poland, it acquires all of East Prussia, Danzig, and *at least* eastern Pomerania and the German part of Upper Silesia. However, since the Jews in German-occupied Poland (and elsewhere in German-occupied Europe as well, of course) are still murdered en masse in the Holocaust in this TL, Poland might insist on even more German territory as "compensation" for losing a large part of its Jewish population (the Jews in eastern Poland will survive the Holocaust in this TL, but will live under Soviet rule). Thus, what we could ultimately end up with in this TL is a Poland which looks very similar to our TL's post-1945 Poland. Sure, Germany is going to hate these borders, but after bleeding themselves dry in order to get to Berlin, Britain and France are certainly not going to give a damn what Germany thinks.
Thus, in the grand scheme of things, Germany might very well see its borders become very similar to its borders after 1945 in our TL--except that Germany won't be divided in this TL and will also lose the Saarland to France. Also, while this is probably unlikely, if Britain and France want to get really nasty, they could try partitioning Germany and reversing Germany's 1871 unification.
Also, as a side note, in large part due to the lack of Operation Barbarossa in this TL (of course, the entire Jewish population in Hungary, Romania, Yugoslavia, Greece, and northern Italy is also going to be spared in this TL), the Holocaust in this TL is about two times less severe than it was in our TL--something which is going to make itself felt in Israel after it is created in this TL.
Anyway, any thoughts on everything that I wrote here?