I agree with the consensus. Even if it is POSSIBLE, it certainly is not plausible for the reasons mentioned above. The West Uk P R was founded almost completely to ensure Ukrainian self government over Galicia, and especially Lviv/Lwow. Unfortunately, like Vilnius Lviv is majority Polish and on the chekc list of an emerging, expansionist, and generally ambitious Polish state and one of the FEW things Pilsudski's clique and the Endeks can agree on.
Add this to the fact that essentially all of the state's neighbors are stronger than it (including the main Ukrainian state to the East), AND they are almost all its enemies. Including the Post-Brest/Versailles states that I'd normally turn to as being the most likely to foster independent nations trying to escape the Russian Pale. The Central European Entente of Romania, Poland (duh), and t (to a lesser extent) Czechoslovakia are all hostile to it and their greater power, precedence, and compatibility with other policy planks mean they are probably going to drag Western Allied leanings over to them.
In addition, Hungary is quite hostile (under BOTH nationalist and Bolshevik flavors, no mean feat). And of course, all flavors of Russian Imperialist want them dead. That adds up to problems. Big Ones that the Republic does not have the power to withstand by itself, especially when they get cut off from the Czechoslovak border and as a result lose the only neighbor that is even willing to *sell them munitions.* Which goes back to the lack of economic self-sufficiency they have in a modern war.
Ironically, in many ways I think the possibilities of an independent (or independent-ish) Galician Ukrainian state are better if the Central Powers win WWI...or at least win the Eastern Front earlier and more decisively than they did in history. Thus giving maybe a couple years or so to try and figure out how the hell they are going to divvy up and administer all this territory, and thus possible room for this rump Galician Uk statelet to take form, gain some support (likely within a union with the Habsburgs), and just maybe persuade Ludendorff and the other strongmen controlling Imperial policy to let it happen and START developing the infrastructure- especially military resources- to try and feed the Greater German Empire's needs before it falls.
But of course, this state would not only not be the West Ukrainian Peoples' Republic but also would have to deal with the double trouble of being under the overbearing yoke of the Central Powers and (if they were defeated) the stigma of being a pro-German statelet. This isn't strictly FATAL, Finland managed it. But it's not an advantage.
If we're talking about the actual WUPR, I think the best chances are really threading a needle. Having Poland and preferably its nearby allies get beaten up and mauled worse by somebody (Bolsheviks, Germans) enoughto make it harder to crush them, but at the SAME TIME not making them so weak that the Bolsheviks can just sweep Westwards trampling over everything like they did in the rest of Ukraine.
This probably requires the defeat of th WUPR to be postponed in some way, either with an earlier, larger Bolshevik push West or a later Polish conquest (maybe form the conflicts in Posen and Silesia with the Germans escalating).
Then you're probably going to want to do EVERYTHING they can to try and persuade the Western Allies to at least tolerate the state and preferably aid it, and try to get the assorted Whites to at least accept it. No Easy Feat. But hopefully when the Bolsheviks rip through Ukraine in 1919 and so it will weaken the larger Ukrainian state to the East enough to prevent the WUPR from being absorbed....but THEN You have to deal with how the hell you are going to stop Trotsky's troops.
I get the feeling that one of the better possible outcomes (at least in terms of raw probability) would likely be the WUPR giving up as much as it needs- if need be anything short of direct annexation- to Poland in order to try and cash in on Pilsudski's ideas of a Federation. But considering why the state was formed in the first place I find this somewhat unlikely.
Also, out of curiosity--how much of Ukraine did Petliura ideally want to >acquire? All of Ukraine up to the Donbass? Or only Ukraine up to the Dneipr >(including Kiev, of course)?
I don't know and I'm not entirely sure he did. Probably "as much as he could take", but given Ukraine's status he had enough trouble fighting for his very life.
In addition to this, what about this scenario--Alexander Kerensky is smart >enough to avoid launching any offensives in 1917--deciding to wait until 1918 >when large numbers of U.S. troops would already be on the Western Front. The >lack of a Kerensky Offensive and Kornilov putsch attempt butterflies away the >Bolshevik Revolution in this TL and allows democratic Russia to emerge on the >winning side in World War I
The problem is that this wouuld only butterly away the Bolshevik Revolution *as it happened in our time line*, but it would NOT change the nature of the Bolshevik party or how it was committed to overthrowing the Republic by coup and could count on massive support from the Central Powers to do just that.
It probably makes the coup Less Likely To Succeed and harder to pull off (what with less demoralization throughout the military, the lack of the devastating split between the Cabinet and the Military Leadership, and Kerensky deciding not to hand out firearms to any Petrograd militia willing to fight Kornilov leading to a lot of them going into Bolshevik hands). But it doesn't erase it altogether.
And you also have the X Factor. The probability the enemy (in this case the Central Powers) will douche with plans. It's likely that the failure of Russia to implode like IOTL in 1917 will lead to Ludendorff and co to try and ratchet up the pressure- likely launching their own offensives- to try and force the issue. Along with or alternatively further supporting the Bolsheviks and other anti-Republican factions.
And even if we assume this all works, that doesn't explain how the heck Kerensky and co would deal with the conflicting petty statelets and self-determination declarations out West, like the fight between the WUPR and the Polish community in Lviv that led to the war kicking off in the first place.