What if the switch to bombing London had not occurred? What if a more
eager Hitler had pushed for an earlier beginning to the campaign? What if
Goering had focused on targeting British airfields throughout the entire
period of the Battle?
From what I've learned about the Battle of Britain, the Luftwaffe, despite
their high losses, had all but worn-out the RAF. Exhausted British pilots
were getting so little sleep that they nodded off at the controls and
shuffled around like zombies. By the time Der Fuhrer threw in the towel,
Except we know the RAF was rotating units out of the front
line in a way the Luftwaffe was not while receiving more
replacement fighter pilots and fighters. Both sides were
suffering major drops in the average quality of their fighter
As far as I can see the paper takes the data from the real fighting,
then allows the computer to draw out days in any sequence,
including repeats. And then run this idea many times, including
time shifting days well before their actual dates.
They do not mention the weather related pauses, nor the
way France did not surrender until mid/late June, nor the
time taken to build and stock airfields within range of Britain,
nor the need for the Luftwaffe to replace Battle of France
losses, nor the need for the Luftwaffe to complete plans of
attack given it was not a situation they expected and so on.
Plus the big errors in the plans, including assumptions on
production and loss rates. A big one was over estimates
of average bomb damage, so the Luftwaffe could undertake
multiple objectives, Fighter Command, Bomber Command,
pre invasion strikes (say for example forcing the RN from
channel area ports) and so on, then came aircraft factories,
initially left alone as it was assumed the British economy was
being so disrupted it would cut such production, which was
of course already underestimated.
Then comes replacements and learning curves on both sides.
We know now an all out attack on the radar chain, bombing
them repeatedly, followed by bombing fighter airfields would
have made a big difference to Fighter Command's ability to
base in the South East, but that is different to defeating it,
let alone the RAF.
I note the article does not even mention radar or fighter control.
Essentially neither side could keep their aircrew quality up but the
RAF held or increased its available pilots and fighters, the Luftwaffe
Also at phys.org.
Which leads to
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