WolfBear
2018-01-05 01:54:30 UTC
Here's the scenario: German Kaiser Wilhelm II overrules Hindenburg and Ludendorff in regards to resuming unrestricted submarine warfare (USW) in early 1917. Without USW (and also without the Zimmerman Telegram), the U.S. remains neutral in World War I. The lack of U.S. entry into the war does not do any favors for British and French morale; in turn, this makes the British and French more susceptible to a compromise peace in this TL. Anyway, let's say that Kaiser Bill, in another rare moment of decisiveness, fires Hindenburg and Ludendorff (using loyal soldiers so that H & L won't try staging a coup against him) and offers to hold a plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine as well as to withdraw from Belgium and northern France in exchange for Germany getting a free hand in the East.
After Russia is knocked out of the war and with U.S. entry into the war nowhere in sight, Britain and France agree to a compromise peace with Germany based on the terms above. Thus, Germany withdraws from Belgium and northern France and holds a plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine (the outcome of which isn't really relevant here) while keeping all of its Brest-Litovsk gains in the East.
After the end of World War I, Germany overthrows the Bolsheviks in Russia and then wisely withdraws due to the realization that a prolonged engagement in Russia could turn out to be its Afghanistan. Also, after the end of World War I, Germany decides to amalgamate its various Eastern European puppet states (Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, and the United Baltic Duchy) into a federation in order to make these states more capable of resisting the threat that a reinvigorated Russia will eventually pose to them. Thus, what we end up seeing in this TL is the creation of a pro-German Intermarium. (If Austria-Hungary still collapses after the end of World War I in this TL, its various constituent states--with the exception of German Austria--could also join this pro-German Intermarium.) For what it's worth, this Intermarium is going to be led by an elite consisting of the ethnic German and ethnic Jewish populations of this region as well as by ethnic Germans who will move to Intermarium from Russia (after all, being stripped of a lot of territory by Germany is probably going to massively increase anti-German sentiment in Russia and thus make many Russian Germans much more willing to emigrate).
Anyway, how would this Intermarium look like? Is it likely to be a total failure over the long(er)-run? Or is the German-Jewish elite there going to be capable of forging a viable multinational federation out of this territory?
Any thoughts on this?
Also, for the record, the inspiration for this thread came from this Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_East_European_States
After Russia is knocked out of the war and with U.S. entry into the war nowhere in sight, Britain and France agree to a compromise peace with Germany based on the terms above. Thus, Germany withdraws from Belgium and northern France and holds a plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine (the outcome of which isn't really relevant here) while keeping all of its Brest-Litovsk gains in the East.
After the end of World War I, Germany overthrows the Bolsheviks in Russia and then wisely withdraws due to the realization that a prolonged engagement in Russia could turn out to be its Afghanistan. Also, after the end of World War I, Germany decides to amalgamate its various Eastern European puppet states (Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, and the United Baltic Duchy) into a federation in order to make these states more capable of resisting the threat that a reinvigorated Russia will eventually pose to them. Thus, what we end up seeing in this TL is the creation of a pro-German Intermarium. (If Austria-Hungary still collapses after the end of World War I in this TL, its various constituent states--with the exception of German Austria--could also join this pro-German Intermarium.) For what it's worth, this Intermarium is going to be led by an elite consisting of the ethnic German and ethnic Jewish populations of this region as well as by ethnic Germans who will move to Intermarium from Russia (after all, being stripped of a lot of territory by Germany is probably going to massively increase anti-German sentiment in Russia and thus make many Russian Germans much more willing to emigrate).
Anyway, how would this Intermarium look like? Is it likely to be a total failure over the long(er)-run? Or is the German-Jewish elite there going to be capable of forging a viable multinational federation out of this territory?
Any thoughts on this?
Also, for the record, the inspiration for this thread came from this Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_East_European_States