Post by The Horny GoatThere are a number of reasons I doubt that the Arab Spring would have spr=
ead to Iraq. Assuming the Gulf War took place in 1990, the Allies are reg=
ularly bombing the Hell out of the country, so they make a much better targ=
et for popular resentment than Saddam Hussein himself. Saddam was ruthles=
s, respected and resourceful, his rule was never really challenged at all, =
once established. There was a very large Christian community -- 10% of th=
e population -- making this group a much more likely target for religious z=
ealots than Saddam himself.
The majority of governments aren't oppressive. The Persian Gulf War took pl=
ace in 1991. You actually brought up something that brings up a POD issue I=
didn't address. We bombed Iraq numerous times from 1998 to the start of th=
e Iraq War. But, this timeline assumes no Iraq War. So, let's assume for pu=
rposes of this timeline that Al Gore became president in 2001 instead of Ge=
orge Bush number 2. Let's further assume that Al Gore ordered a stop to the=
bombing when he became president. Let's further assume Obama still became =
president in 2009 and he didn't order a resumption of bombing. So, when the=
Arab Spring started, there hadn't been any bombing raids on Iraq in roughl=
y 10 years.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Post by The Horny GoatWas there any particular reason Saddam kicked off the first Gulf War
by invading Kuwait? Obviously he wouldn't do so during his war with
Iran (1980-88) but any particular reason why then at that time?
He was deeply in debt following the Iran-Iraq War, and Kuwait looked like a ready means of solving that problem, with little or no opposition. He could substantially increase his oil revenues, his power and his wealth.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Post by The Horny GoatWas there anything going on in the world at that point that would lead
him to believe he could get away with it? I don't know of anything
like that.
Perhaps I can be of assistance then, Horny.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War
"In early July 1990, Iraq complained about Kuwait's behavior, such as not respecting their quota, and openly threatened to take military action. On the 23rd, the CIA reported that Iraq had moved 30,000 troops to the Iraq-Kuwait border, and the US naval fleet in the Persian Gulf was placed on alert. Saddam believed an anti-Iraq conspiracy was developing – Kuwait had begun talks with Iran, and Iraq's rival Syria had arranged a visit to Egypt.[48] Upon review by the Secretary of Defense, it was found that Syria indeed planned a strike against Iraq in the coming days. Saddam immediately used funding to incorporate central intelligence into Syria and ultimately prevented the impending air strike. On 15 July 1990, Saddam's government laid out its combined objections to the Arab League, including that policy moves were costing Iraq $1 billion a year, that Kuwait was still using the Rumaila oil field, that loans made by the UAE and Kuwait could not be considered debts to its "Arab brothers".[48] He threatened force against Kuwait and the UAE, saying: "The policies of some Arab rulers are American ... They are inspired by America to undermine Arab interests and security."[49] The US sent aerial refuelling planes and combat ships to the Persian Gulf in response to these threats.[50] Discussions in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, mediated on the Arab League's behalf by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, were held on 31 July and led Mubarak to believe that a peaceful course could be established.[51]
On the 25th, Saddam met with April Glaspie, the US Ambassador to Iraq, in Baghdad. The Iraqi leader attacked American policy with regards to Kuwait and the UAE:
So what can it mean when America says it will now protect its friends? It can only mean prejudice against Iraq. This stance plus maneuvers and statements which have been made has encouraged the UAE and Kuwait to disregard Iraqi rights ... If you use pressure, we will deploy pressure and force. We know that you can harm us although we do not threaten you. But we too can harm you. Everyone can cause harm according to their ability and their size. We cannot come all the way to you in the United States, but individual Arabs may reach you ... We do not place America among the enemies. We place it where we want our friends to be and we try to be friends. But repeated American statements last year made it apparent that America did not regard us as friends.[52]
Glaspie replied:
I know you need funds. We understand that and our opinion is that you should have the opportunity to rebuild your country. But we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait ... Frankly, we can only see that you have deployed massive troops in the south. Normally that would not be any of our business. But when this happens in the context of what you said on your national day, then when we read the details in the two letters of the Foreign Minister, then when we see the Iraqi point of view that the measures taken by the UAE and Kuwait is, in the final analysis, parallel to military aggression against Iraq, then it would be reasonable for me to be concerned.[52]
Saddam stated that he would attempt last-ditch negotiations with the Kuwaitis but Iraq "would not accept death".[52]
According to Glaspie's own account, she stated in reference to the precise border between Kuwait and Iraq, "... that she had served in Kuwait 20 years before; 'then, as now, we took no position on these Arab affairs'."[53] Glaspie similarly believed that war was not imminent.[51]"
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The key point is, the Americans at no time indicated prior to the invasion that they would respond militarily to an Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. If they had, Saddam Hussein would not have done it. The strongest statement made by the U.S. Ambassador was that the U.S. would be "concerned" about military aggression against Kuwait. Bear in mind, up to this point, Iraq had been considered a very strong American ally in the Middle East, even an essential one, to counterbalance the Revolutionary government of Iran. Saddam had no reason to think his power grab would be challenged. I can still remember the rather shocking transition in CBS News Anchor Dan Rather's attitude, in just 24 hours, when "President Hussein" suddenly became "Dictator Hussein", following the invasion of Kuwait.
Post by The Horny GoatOf course it could have been worse for him - had he invaded in 1993
shortly after the first al Qaeda attempt on the World Trade Center it
could have gotten extremely ugly extremely quickly. 2003 was clearly
the aftermath of 9/11 but the first Gulf War could have taken place
pretty much any time in the 90s without requiring ASBs.