Would a non-Nazi German regime have been willing to partition Poland together with Russia?

[WolfBear]

I'm curious about this--do you think that a non-Nazi German regime would have been willing to partition Poland together with Russia in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s (in a scenario where the Nazis never come to power in Germany due to Hitler being killed back in 1923)?

Basically, I am not thinking as much of an actual German-Soviet war against Poland as I am of a German-Soviet *threat of war* against Poland if their borders are not revised. In turn, what this would cause is to have Britain and France set up a Munich-style summit in order to force Poland to make territorial concessions to both Germany and Russia (after all, Britain is probably going to be unwilling to fight for Poland against a *non-Nazi* German regime, and without Britain, France probably refuses to fight). In turn, Germany is going to get both Danzig and the Polish Corridor while the Soviet Union is going to expand in the west right up to the Curzon Line. As for (rump) Poland, it will obviously become much smaller and landlocked but will remain independent.

Does this scenario sound realistic?

Also, after this TL's German-Soviet partition of Poland, is Germany going to try bullying Lithuania to give up the Memelland while the Soviet Union is going to try bullying Czechoslovakia to give up Subcarpathian Ruthenia and Romania to give up both Bessarabia and Bukovina? Or would Britain and France be unwilling--up to the point of going to war--to accept any additional German and Soviet territorial gains after the German-Soviet partition of Poland in this TL?

[SolomonW]

Post by WolfBear
I'm curious about this--do you think that a non-Nazi German regime would have been willing to partition Poland together with Russia in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s (in a scenario where the Nazis never come to power in Germany due to Hitler being killed back in 1923)?
Basically, I am not thinking as much of an actual German-Soviet war against Poland as I am of a German-Soviet *threat of war* against Poland if their borders are not revised. In turn, what this would cause is to have Britain and France set up a Munich-style summit in order to force Poland to make territorial concessions to both Germany and Russia (after all, Britain is probably going to be unwilling to fight for Poland against a *non-Nazi* German regime, and without Britain, France probably refuses to fight). In turn, Germany is going to get both Danzig and the Polish Corridor while the Soviet Union is going to expand in the west right up to the Curzon Line. As for (rump) Poland, it will obviously become much smaller and landlocked but will remain independent.
Does this scenario sound realistic?
Also, after this TL's German-Soviet partition of Poland, is Germany going to try bullying Lithuania to give up the Memelland while the Soviet Union is going to try bullying Czechoslovakia to give up Subcarpathian Ruthenia and Romania to give up both Bessarabia and Bukovina? Or would Britain and France be unwilling--up to the point of going to war--to accept any additional German and Soviet territorial gains after the German-Soviet partition of Poland in this TL?

Danzig might be an issue but overall I doubt non-NAZI German goverment
would be interested in Poland except for a market for German products. What
would be of interest to them?

[WolfBear]

Post by SolomonW

Post by WolfBear
I'm curious about this--do you think that a non-Nazi German regime would have been willing to partition Poland together with Russia in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s (in a scenario where the Nazis never come to power in Germany due to Hitler being killed back in 1923)?
Basically, I am not thinking as much of an actual German-Soviet war against Poland as I am of a German-Soviet *threat of war* against Poland if their borders are not revised. In turn, what this would cause is to have Britain and France set up a Munich-style summit in order to force Poland to make territorial concessions to both Germany and Russia (after all, Britain is probably going to be unwilling to fight for Poland against a *non-Nazi* German regime, and without Britain, France probably refuses to fight). In turn, Germany is going to get both Danzig and the Polish Corridor while the Soviet Union is going to expand in the west right up to the Curzon Line. As for (rump) Poland, it will obviously become much smaller and landlocked but will remain independent.
Does this scenario sound realistic?
Also, after this TL's German-Soviet partition of Poland, is Germany going to try bullying Lithuania to give up the Memelland while the Soviet Union is going to try bullying Czechoslovakia to give up Subcarpathian Ruthenia and Romania to give up both Bessarabia and Bukovina? Or would Britain and France be unwilling--up to the point of going to war--to accept any additional German and Soviet territorial gains after the German-Soviet partition of Poland in this TL?

Danzig might be an issue but overall I doubt non-NAZI German goverment
would be interested in Poland except for a market for German products. What
would be of interest to them?

The Polish Corridor would also be of interest to them--just like it was for Gustav Stresemann.

[The Horny Goat]

Post by SolomonW
Danzig might be an issue but overall I doubt non-NAZI German goverment
would be interested in Poland except for a market for German products. What
would be of interest to them?

Undoubtedly free highway and rail transport to East Prussia would have
been of interest to most any non-Nazi German government of pretty much
any political persuasion.

[WolfBear]

Post by The Horny Goat

Post by SolomonW
Danzig might be an issue but overall I doubt non-NAZI German goverment
would be interested in Poland except for a market for German products. What
would be of interest to them?

Undoubtedly free highway and rail transport to East Prussia would have
been of interest to most any non-Nazi German government of pretty much
any political persuasion.

Yes; correct!

[SolomonW]

Post by The Horny Goat

Post by SolomonW
Danzig might be an issue but overall I doubt non-NAZI German goverment
would be interested in Poland except for a market for German products. What
would be of interest to them?

Undoubtedly free highway and rail transport to East Prussia would have
been of interest to most any non-Nazi German government of pretty much
any political persuasion.

Yes and the large German population in Poland too.

[Rich Rostrom]

Post by SolomonW
Danzig might be an issue but overall I doubt
non-NAZI German goverment would be interested in
Poland except for a market for German products. What
would be of interest to them?

Upper Silesia, Pomerelia (the "Polish Corridor"),
and Posen (the Warthegau). All these areas were
part of Germany before 1918, and had substantial
volksdeutsch populations. Many Germans felt the
same way about these areas that Frenchmen felt
about Alsace-Lorraine.

[The Horny Goat]

Post by WolfBear
I'm curious about this--do you think that a non-Nazi German regime would have been willing to partition Poland together with Russia in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s (in a scenario where the Nazis never come to power in Germany due to Hitler being killed back in 1923)?
Basically, I am not thinking as much of an actual German-Soviet war against Poland as I am of a German-Soviet *threat of war* against Poland if their borders are not revised. In turn, what this would cause is to have Britain and France set up a Munich-style summit in order to force Poland to make territorial concessions to both Germany and Russia (after all, Britain is probably going to be unwilling to fight for Poland against a *non-Nazi* German regime, and without Britain, France probably refuses to fight). In turn, Germany is going to get both Danzig and the Polish Corridor while the Soviet Union is going to expand in the west right up to the Curzon Line. As for (rump) Poland, it will obviously become much smaller and landlocked but will remain independent.
Does this scenario sound realistic?
Also, after this TL's German-Soviet partition of Poland, is Germany going to try bullying Lithuania to give up the Memelland while the Soviet Union is going to try bullying Czechoslovakia to give up Subcarpathian Ruthenia and Romania to give up both Bessarabia and Bukovina? Or would Britain and France be unwilling--up to the point of going to war--to accept any additional German and Soviet territorial gains after the German-Soviet partition of Poland in this TL?

A better question might be whether a partition might be more likely
without war had Hitler (or some other leader) first occupied Prague -
it cannot be underestimated the degree to which his credibility went
completely went up in smoke after occupying Prague less than 4 months
after Munich.

At that point it became clear that there would be no Second Munich
either in Aug/Sept 1939 or immediately after the fall of France.

With Lithuania Germany was demanding the pre-1914 border and the
Lithuanians gave up peacefully but at that point nobody really
believed that either Munich or Memel was his "last territorial demand
in Europe"

[WolfBear]

Post by The Horny Goat

Post by WolfBear
I'm curious about this--do you think that a non-Nazi German regime would have been willing to partition Poland together with Russia in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s (in a scenario where the Nazis never come to power in Germany due to Hitler being killed back in 1923)?
Basically, I am not thinking as much of an actual German-Soviet war against Poland as I am of a German-Soviet *threat of war* against Poland if their borders are not revised. In turn, what this would cause is to have Britain and France set up a Munich-style summit in order to force Poland to make territorial concessions to both Germany and Russia (after all, Britain is probably going to be unwilling to fight for Poland against a *non-Nazi* German regime, and without Britain, France probably refuses to fight). In turn, Germany is going to get both Danzig and the Polish Corridor while the Soviet Union is going to expand in the west right up to the Curzon Line. As for (rump) Poland, it will obviously become much smaller and landlocked but will remain independent.
Does this scenario sound realistic?
Also, after this TL's German-Soviet partition of Poland, is Germany going to try bullying Lithuania to give up the Memelland while the Soviet Union is going to try bullying Czechoslovakia to give up Subcarpathian Ruthenia and Romania to give up both Bessarabia and Bukovina? Or would Britain and France be unwilling--up to the point of going to war--to accept any additional German and Soviet territorial gains after the German-Soviet partition of Poland in this TL?

A better question might be whether a partition might be more likely
without war had Hitler (or some other leader) first occupied Prague -
it cannot be underestimated the degree to which his credibility went
completely went up in smoke after occupying Prague less than 4 months
after Munich.
At that point it became clear that there would be no Second Munich
either in Aug/Sept 1939 or immediately after the fall of France.
With Lithuania Germany was demanding the pre-1914 border and the
Lithuanians gave up peacefully but at that point nobody really
believed that either Munich or Memel was his "last territorial demand
in Europe"

I completely agree that Hitler ruined his credibility by occupying rump Czechia in early March 1939.

Indeed, in a scenario where Nazi Germany doesn't occupy Czechia, Britain and France might be more willing to make additional concessions to Nazi Germany (at Poland's expense, of course).

Of course, it is worth noting that a non-Nazi Germany probably wouldn't have laid claim to the Sudetenland. In turn, this fact in itself might have made Britain and France more willing to agree to some of its demands elsewhere--as is in regards to Poland.

[Rich Rostrom]

Post by WolfBear
Of course, it is worth noting that a non-Nazi
Germany probably wouldn't have laid claim to the
Sudetenland.

I wouldn't say that. Pan-Germanism was a non-trivial
force; there was considerable support for unification
with Austria. Czechia was, historically, part of
"Germany" (the HRE, the German Confederation), and the
Germans there, particularly in the solidly German
Sudetenland, resented being ruled by a non-German
government, and yearned for return to Greater Germany.

(This was also true of many ethnic Germans in the
inner parts of Czechia as well.)

And IIRC, most of the Schwarz Kapelle thought that in
the "reasonable" peace settlement that could be arranged
after the Nazis were removed, Germany should of course
keep the Sudetenland.

Post by WolfBear
In turn, this fact in itself might have made Britain
and France more willing to agree to some of its
demands elsewhere--as is in regards to Poland.

[WolfBear]

Post by Rich Rostrom

Post by WolfBear
Of course, it is worth noting that a non-Nazi
Germany probably wouldn't have laid claim to the
Sudetenland.

I wouldn't say that. Pan-Germanism was a non-trivial
force; there was considerable support for unification
with Austria. Czechia was, historically, part of
"Germany" (the HRE, the German Confederation), and the
Germans there, particularly in the solidly German
Sudetenland, resented being ruled by a non-German
government, and yearned for return to Greater Germany.
(This was also true of many ethnic Germans in the
inner parts of Czechia as well.)
And IIRC, most of the Schwarz Kapelle thought that in
the "reasonable" peace settlement that could be arranged
after the Nazis were removed, Germany should of course
keep the Sudetenland.

Post by WolfBear
In turn, this fact in itself might have made Britain
and France more willing to agree to some of its
demands elsewhere--as is in regards to Poland.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

Yes, the Schwarze Kapelle obviously thought that Germany should keep the Sudetenland, and that is completely unsurprising. After all, Hitler had already acquired it for Germany and they didn't want to lose a heavily German area such as that. (Interestingly enough, the Schwarze Kapelle also had similar views in regards to heavily Polish Posen Province. Basically, they didn't want to lose it either in spite of the fact that Weimar Germany didn't lay claim to Posen Province.)

Before the Hitler era, though, the calculation might have very well been different (since Germany didn't get the Sudetenland yet). After all, if one wanted to set up a German-dominated economic union in Central Europe, it might have been better to keep a lot of ethnic Germans inside of Czechoslovakia in order to increase the odds of Czechoslovakia joining such an economic union (after all, a lot of Germans in Czechoslovakia means a lot of German political power there). I'll have to go look for it later (I can't find it right now), but I swore that I previously found this one book on Google Books which had a 1931 quote (of course, it might have been a letter) from either a prominent German politician or from a prominent German banker where he talked about how Germany could eventually use the ethnic German political power in Czechoslovakia to eventually help push Czechoslovakia into joining a German-dominated economic union (as in, something akin to Mitteleuropa).

[s***@yahoo.com]

Post by The Horny Goat
believed that either Munich or Memel was his "last territorial demand
in Europe"

At the time a joke going around Germany postulates Hitler getting run over by a bus. What should we put on his tombstone? they ask. "This is my last territorial demand".

Nils

[Ed Stasiak]

WolfBear
do you think that a non-Nazi German regime would have been willing
to partition Poland together with Russia in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s

A non-Nazi German regime did in 1792, 1793 and 1795. The attitude
was driven by generations of German immigration/colonialism throughout
Eastern Europe; “there are Germans already living there, which means
it ought to be German territory.”

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(after all, Britain is probably going to be unwilling to fight for Poland against
a *non-Nazi* German regime, and without Britain, France probably refuses
to fight).

A resurgent (non-Nazi) Germany is still a threat to the British, as odds are
they won’t stop with just Poland.

Also, after this TL's German-Soviet partition of Poland, is Germany going
to try bullying Lithuania to give up the Memelland while the Soviet Union
is going to try bullying Czechoslovakia to give up Subcarpathian Ruthenia
and Romania to give up both Bessarabia and Bukovina?

Sure, as they’ve already eliminated the biggest obstacle with the partition
of Poland. Why stop there?

[SolomonW]

Post by Ed Stasiak

WolfBear
do you think that a non-Nazi German regime would have been willing
to partition Poland together with Russia in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s

A non-Nazi German regime did in 1792, 1793 and 1795. The attitude
was driven by generations of German immigration/colonialism throughout
Eastern Europe; “there are Germans already living there, which means
it ought to be German territory.”
http://atlanticsentinel.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/1938-Germans-Europe-map.jpg
https://img09.deviantart.net/f72f/i/2017/148/d/6/germans_in_eastern_europe_map_by_arminius1871-dbapodv.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-29xBOGAjBBQ/UNqjqHrbfAI/AAAAAAAABC0/3-R2--LqkoM/s1600/where-germans-settled-by-Nazis-ww2.jpg

(a)

The problem with taking it is that these Germans are in areas with large
numbers of non Germans. I doubt that a non NAZI German regime would expel
or kill them nor would it like to absorb these areas to make these people
citizens.

Post by Ed Stasiak

(after all, Britain is probably going to be unwilling to fight for Poland against
a *non-Nazi* German regime, and without Britain, France probably refuses
to fight).

A resurgent (non-Nazi) Germany is still a threat to the British, as odds are
they won’t stop with just Poland.

It depends what Germany does. If it behaves, then Britain needs Germany as
a front line against Russia and can play off Germany and France in the game
of balance of power.

Post by Ed Stasiak

Also, after this TL's German-Soviet partition of Poland, is Germany going
to try bullying Lithuania to give up the Memelland while the Soviet Union
is going to try bullying Czechoslovakia to give up Subcarpathian Ruthenia
and Romania to give up both Bessarabia and Bukovina?

Sure, as they’ve already eliminated the biggest obstacle with the partition
of Poland. Why stop there?

See (a) above

[Ed Stasiak]

SolomonW

Ed Stasiak
A non-Nazi German regime did in 1792, 1793 and 1795.  The attitude
was driven by generations of German immigration/colonialism throughout
Eastern Europe; “there are Germans already living there, which means
it ought to be German territory.”

The problem with taking it is that these Germans are in areas with large
numbers of non Germans. I doubt that a non NAZI German regime would
expel or kill them nor would it like to absorb these areas to make these
people citizens.

I dunno about that, I think it was more a sign of the times and something
that developed from earlier experiences, as much as Nazi ideology.

The Imperial German regime had imposed forced Germanization on the
Poles for generations and Imperial Russia did the same, with WWI and
its effects encouraging a more brutal effort by the Nazis and Soviets.

And the same applies to the Poles; they’ll resist based on past experience
while using modern methods, which will only cause the Germans to stomp
down harder and so on.

A resurgent (non-Nazi) Germany is still a threat to the British, as odds
are they won’t stop with just Poland.

It depends what Germany does. If it behaves, then Britain needs Germany
as a front line against Russia and can play off Germany and France in the
game of balance of power.

Germany’s success, Nazis or not, will only encourage more of the same
(humans being humans) and all those ethnic German “colonists” are still
there in Eastern Europe.

Sure, as they’ve already eliminated the biggest obstacle with the partition
of Poland.  Why stop there?

See (a) above

The same.

[Rob]

Post by WolfBear
I'm curious about this--do you think that a non-Nazi German regime would have been willing to partition Poland together with Russia in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s (in a scenario where the Nazis never come to power in Germany due to Hitler being killed back in 1923)?

...yes...

..if they were from part of the political spectrum that had destroying Poland as a goal, and if they thought the goal could be achieved.

The Reichswehr during the Weimar years did some operational planning about joint operations against the Poles. That probably did not get so far as mapping out a complete partition, but things could go that direction.

[David Tenner]

Post by WolfBear

Post by WolfBear
I'm curious about this--do you think that a non-Nazi German regime
would

have been willing to partition Poland together with Russia in the 1930s,
1940s, or 1950s (in a scenario where the Nazis never come to power in
Germany due to Hitler being killed back in 1923)?
...yes...
..if they were from part of the political spectrum that had destroying
Poland as a goal, and if they thought the goal could be achieved.
The Reichswehr during the Weimar years did some operational planning
about joint operations against the Poles. That probably did not get so
far as mapping out a complete partition, but things could go that
direction.

Probably a non-Nazi government would prefer to make Poland a satellite state
after getting Danzig and the Corridor. If the only way to do this is a deal
with the USSR to let the latter have the territory east of the Curzon Line,
the Germans might agree to that.

After the Poles spurned his approaches in 1939, Hitler gave up on
satellitization and decided on destruction of Poland; the General Government
(leaving aside the fact that its western borders were well to the east of
even Congress Poland's) didn't even have the pseudo-autonomy of Bohemia-
Moravia. I foubt that any non-Nazi government of Germany would have gone to
that extreme.

[WolfBear]

Post by David Tenner

Post by WolfBear

Post by WolfBear
I'm curious about this--do you think that a non-Nazi German regime
would

have been willing to partition Poland together with Russia in the 1930s,
1940s, or 1950s (in a scenario where the Nazis never come to power in
Germany due to Hitler being killed back in 1923)?
...yes...
..if they were from part of the political spectrum that had destroying
Poland as a goal, and if they thought the goal could be achieved.
The Reichswehr during the Weimar years did some operational planning
about joint operations against the Poles. That probably did not get so
far as mapping out a complete partition, but things could go that
direction.

Probably a non-Nazi government would prefer to make Poland a satellite state
after getting Danzig and the Corridor. If the only way to do this is a deal
with the USSR to let the latter have the territory east of the Curzon Line,
the Germans might agree to that.
After the Poles spurned his approaches in 1939, Hitler gave up on
satellitization and decided on destruction of Poland; the General Government
(leaving aside the fact that its western borders were well to the east of
even Congress Poland's) didn't even have the pseudo-autonomy of Bohemia-
Moravia. I foubt that any non-Nazi government of Germany would have gone to
that extreme.
--
David Tenner

What is interesting, though, is that I have previously heard that Hitler initially wanted to make a rump Polish satellite state even after he had decided on invading Poland but that Stalin vetoed this idea.