What if the French Second Empire tried to occupy Egypt?

[Rob]

What if Louis Napoleon tried to occupy Egypt during his regime-

Such an ambitious enterprise would probably have to be a substitute for one of Louis Napoleon's other foreign interventions, so he contrives to create and take the opportunity to invade Egypt instead of:

a) The Crimean War in 1853-56
b) The 2nd Opium War in 1856-58
c) The 1850s-1860s take over of Cambodia and southern Vietnam
d) The war by Piedmont's side against Austria, 1859-1860
e) The Mexican Intervention of 1861-1867, or
f) The Franco-Prussian war

So if he invades Egypt, how does it go, and what knock-on effects does it have?

Does the rest of Europe, and the UK, tolerate a French takeover of Egypt?

I'll add a poll:

Louis Napoleon could have successfully taken Egypt during his regime
A) yes
B) no

[Alex Milman]

Post by Rob
What if Louis Napoleon tried to occupy Egypt during his regime-
a) The Crimean War in 1853-56

If (the big "IF") there is a Franco-Russian alliance than this may go as a part of the earlier plan by Nicholas I regarding the "sick man in Europe".

There is an ongoing Russian - Ottoman War which Russian manages to screw up but which, in an absence of the OTL Franco-British intervention, it would most probably eventually win. The Ottomans are engaged on the Danube and Caucasus and it is an open question if the Egyptian forces would be adequate for repelling the French invasion. Russian navy is (without British intervention) dominating the Black Sea and the French navy can deal with whatever the Ottomans (and/or Egypt) have on the Med.

It is not even quite clear if the Ottomans are going to interfere: while formally Muhammad Sa'id Pasha owned fealty to the Ottoman Sultan in practice he exercised virtual independence. Taking into an account that he was a Francophone, educated in Paris, would it be possible in your ATL for him to establish a de facto protectorate similar to one the Brits had in OTL? Khedive can even formally remain the Ottoman vassal (as was the case in OTL until 1914).

The Brits are unhappy so the question is about the relative power of the French and British navies at that time and the British readiness to go to an open war with France AND Russia. They'll be looking for the allies and the only potentially meaningful ally at that time is Austria. However, there is a considerable Russian army staying on the Russian-Austrian border (Fieldmarshal Paskevich was somewhat obsessed with an idea of a possible Austrian intervention on Ottomans side), Sardinia is looking for the French alliance to start Second Italian War of Independence and France has plenty of resources even if it is engaged in Egypt.

Prussian military reform will start only in 1860 and, anyway, it is rather unlikely that at this specific time it would be ready and willing to go into an open confrontation with Russia over the British interests.

Construction of the Suez Canal did not start, yet, so perhaps Egypt is not of a such strategic importance for Britain as it become later.

At any of the listed later dates France is on its own and I don't think that option "f" is plausible at all.

Post by Rob
b) The 2nd Opium War in 1856-58
c) The 1850s-1860s take over of Cambodia and southern Vietnam
d) The war by Piedmont's side against Austria, 1859-1860
e) The Mexican Intervention of 1861-1867, or
f) The Franco-Prussian war
So if he invades Egypt, how does it go, and what knock-on effects does it have?

Probably French Suez Canal.

Post by Rob
Does the rest of Europe, and the UK, tolerate a French takeover of Egypt?

The Brits and Russia would be probably the only ones who gives a damn and if this is done as a part of the Russian-French alliance, Nicholas I is happy. Which leaves _potentially_ unhappy Brits.

Post by Rob
Louis Napoleon could have successfully taken Egypt during his regime
A) yes
B) no