OT:? Fuel that fires; the Treaty of Versailles revisited

[Byker]

https://spectator.org/after-a-century-of-chaos-totalitarianism-and-war-versailles-treaty-still-haunts-the-world/
A most shameful treaty shoved down the throat of the Germans at bayonet
point. Was it really a treaty, or a provocation for a continued war?
Time to draw out the haters and bigots. In other words, the filth.

WWI didn't HAVE to end that way:

[SolomonW]

Post by Byker

https://spectator.org/after-a-century-of-chaos-totalitarianism-and-war-versailles-treaty-still-haunts-the-world/
A most shameful treaty shoved down the throat of the Germans at bayonet
point. Was it really a treaty, or a provocation for a continued war?
Time to draw out the haters and bigots. In other words, the filth.

WWI didn't HAVE to end that way: http://youtu.be/J9lWdkCxXYg

I agree with the video.

In answer to your question, it depends on how you look at it, compared to
the treaty that German put on Russia at Brest-Litovsk it was very mild.



Much of the treaty was later ignored. Now could the framers of the treaty
be blamed for the failure of the allies to uphold the treaty at the
Rhineland?



The problem I think with the treaty was that it was too harsh in theory
and too weak in reality. It would have been better if the agreement had
been stricter in theory and fact or weaker in theory and fact.

[Byker]

Post by SolomonW

Post by Byker
http://youtu.be/J9lWdkCxXYg

I agree with the video.

Prior to the Cuban Missile Crisis, JFK had been reading historian Barbara
Tuchman's "The Guns of August", that traced how the Great Powers,
simultaneously headstrong and yet unsure of themselves, slipped, stumbled,
and miscalculated their way into the Great War in 1914. The President was
particularly haunted by a conversation between two German leaders after the
war had spiraled out of control. One, a former chancellor, asked the current
chancellor, "How did it all happen?" The latter, who led his nation into
war, replied, "Ah, if only one knew."

As the Crisis darkened, Jack told Bobby that he wanted to avoid someone
someday writing a comparable "Missiles of October". As JFK recalled later,
"If this planet is ever ravaged by nuclear war...I do not want one of those
survivors to ask another, 'How did it all happen?' and receive the
incredible reply, 'Ah, if only one knew.'"

[SolomonW]

Post by Byker

Post by SolomonW

Post by Byker
http://youtu.be/J9lWdkCxXYg

I agree with the video.

Prior to the Cuban Missile Crisis, JFK had been reading historian Barbara
Tuchman's "The Guns of August", that traced how the Great Powers,
simultaneously headstrong and yet unsure of themselves, slipped, stumbled,
and miscalculated their way into the Great War in 1914. The President was
particularly haunted by a conversation between two German leaders after the
war had spiraled out of control. One, a former chancellor, asked the current
chancellor, "How did it all happen?" The latter, who led his nation into
war, replied, "Ah, if only one knew."
As the Crisis darkened, Jack told Bobby that he wanted to avoid someone
someday writing a comparable "Missiles of October". As JFK recalled later,
"If this planet is ever ravaged by nuclear war...I do not want one of those
survivors to ask another, 'How did it all happen?' and receive the
incredible reply, 'Ah, if only one knew.'"

This view is no longer widely held of an accidental start of ww1

Checkout a book
https://www.amazon.com/Europes-Last-Summer-Started-Great/dp/037572575X

[Byker]

Post by SolomonW
This view is no longer widely held of an accidental start of ww1
Checkout a book
https://www.amazon.com/Europes-Last-Summer-Started-Great/dp/037572575X

"When war broke out in Europe in 1914, it surprised a European population
enjoying the most beautiful summer in memory." Lots of folks remember the
summer of 1939 the same way, that is, until Sept. 1st.

Agreed. WWI did not start accidentally. The Germans knew very well what
they were doing in encouraging Austria-Hungary.

The Germans, like Britain and France, wanted an empire too.

The Greeks 2,400 years ago knew what happens when a rising power rivals a
ruling power: "It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this instilled
in Sparta, that made war inevitable." -- Thucydides

When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, it rarely ends
well.

https://www.amazon.com/Destined-War-America-Escape-Thucydidess-ebook/dp/B01IAS9FZY

An up-and-coming Germany vs. imperial Britain = WWI

Japanese imperial expansion vs. United States = WWII

"In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling
power, the result has been bloodshed."
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/thucydides-trap-are-us-and-china-headed-war

https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/


I wonder if we'll ever get the straight story regarding the Schlieffen Plan.
"Most of the pre-1914 planning of the German General Staff was secret and
the documents were destroyed when the deployment plans were superseded every
April. The bombing of Potsdam in April 1945 destroyed the Prussian army
archive and only incomplete records and other documents survived. Some
records became available after the fall of the German Democratic Republic
(GDR), making an outline of German war planning possible for the first time,
proving wrong much post-1918 writing."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan

Reportedly the German military brass years before, upon seeing Buffalo
Bill's Wild West Show, paid particular attention as to how the troupe was
able to load all those men and animals on a train and move them to their
next venue in short order...

[SolomonW]

Post by Byker
I wonder if we'll ever get the straight story regarding the Schlieffen Plan.
"Most of the pre-1914 planning of the German General Staff was secret and
the documents were destroyed when the deployment plans were superseded every
April.

Several such as Terence Zuber "The real german war plan 1904-14" claim that
the Schlieffen Plan was better describe as a rough concept rather than a
plan.

[Yeechang Lee]

Post by SolomonW
Several such as Terence Zuber "The real german war plan 1904-14"
claim that the Schlieffen Plan was better describe as a rough
concept rather than a plan.

Another is *Europe's Last Summer: Who Started the Great War in 1914?*
by David Fromkin.

[The Horny Goat]

Post by Byker
Reportedly the German military brass years before, upon seeing Buffalo
Bill's Wild West Show, paid particular attention as to how the troupe was
able to load all those men and animals on a train and move them to their
next venue in short order.

Don't know about that but do know what brought Eisenhower to attention
as a candidate for the highest commands was an exercise in the 1920s
where he moved a regiment from Chicago to New Orleans in what had been
thought to be an unimaginable time using both trucks and trains

[pyotr filipivich]

Post by The Horny Goat

Post by Byker
Reportedly the German military brass years before, upon seeing Buffalo
Bill's Wild West Show, paid particular attention as to how the troupe was
able to load all those men and animals on a train and move them to their
next venue in short order.

Don't know about that but do know what brought Eisenhower to attention
as a candidate for the highest commands was an exercise in the 1920s
where he moved a regiment from Chicago to New Orleans in what had been
thought to be an unimaginable time using both trucks and trains

The story I recall was that the German General Staff sent
"observers" to the US to study how the Ringling Brothers (et al) moved
their Circus by train. Essentially, a small town is packed up,
loaded, moved,unloaded, and unpacked, in less than a day at each end.

[Byker]

Post by Byker
Reportedly the German military brass years before, upon seeing Buffalo
Bill's Wild West Show, paid particular attention as to how the troupe was
able to load all those men and animals on a train and move them to their
next venue in short order.

Don't know about that but do know what brought Eisenhower to attention as
a candidate for the highest commands was an exercise in the 1920s where he
moved a regiment from Chicago to New Orleans in what had been thought to
be an unimaginable time using both trucks and trains

For the Schlieffen plan to work, German strategists in 1907 decided that it
would take 1,800 trains to move all the men and matériel towards Paris. They
had every detail figured out, only to run afoul of Murphy's Law at every
turn...

[The Horny Goat]

Post by Byker
"When war broke out in Europe in 1914, it surprised a European population
enjoying the most beautiful summer in memory." Lots of folks remember the
summer of 1939 the same way, that is, until Sept. 1st.

Complete nonsense - my late grandmother was VERY VERY plain in her
view that from the time Hitler occupied Prague (Jan 1939) the view was
nearly universal that it wasn't IF war was coming but WHEN and the
feeling was that they did well to get to September without war.

No question the occupation of Prague caused most in the English
speaking countries to despair of avoiding war - which is not my idea
of a pleasant summer at all.

Post by Byker

Agreed. WWI did not start accidentally. The Germans knew very well what
they were doing in encouraging Austria-Hungary.

I think you're right - but then I'm considered quite outspoken in
sayig the Versailles article 231 'war guilt' clause was TOTALLY
justified for this and other reasons.

Post by Byker
The Germans, like Britain and France, wanted an empire too.
The Greeks 2,400 years ago knew what happens when a rising power rivals a
ruling power: "It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this instilled
in Sparta, that made war inevitable." -- Thucydides
When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, it rarely ends
well.
https://www.amazon.com/Destined-War-America-Escape-Thucydidess-ebook/dp/B01IAS9FZY
An up-and-coming Germany vs. imperial Britain = WWI
Japanese imperial expansion vs. United States = WWII
"In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling
power, the result has been bloodshed."
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/thucydides-trap-are-us-and-china-headed-war
http://youtu.be/Ku8KqQccoUU
https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/

I've read the book you're referring to but am not completely
convinced. After all in our time America has avoided war first with
the Soviets, then with the Chinese. (I'm talking "general" wars like
WW1 and WW2 not local wars like Korea and the Falklands)

I enjoyed the author's analysis and recitation of history but using
the 15th century experience to guide us in the 21st is a stretch.

Post by Byker
I wonder if we'll ever get the straight story regarding the Schlieffen Plan.
"Most of the pre-1914 planning of the German General Staff was secret and
the documents were destroyed when the deployment plans were superseded every
April. The bombing of Potsdam in April 1945 destroyed the Prussian army
archive and only incomplete records and other documents survived. Some
records became available after the fall of the German Democratic Republic
(GDR), making an outline of German war planning possible for the first time,
proving wrong much post-1918 writing."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan

Most of what records that came out of E Germany came out out of 1939.
I am picking up my hold on Fischer's war aims book at the library
tomorrow and it will be interesting to see how views have changed
since the 1960s when Fischer wrote his account.

Post by Byker
Reportedly the German military brass years before, upon seeing Buffalo
Bill's Wild West Show, paid particular attention as to how the troupe was
able to load all those men and animals on a train and move them to their
next venue in short order...

Hmmm. I heard the same story about the Germans and Ringling Brothers.

[Byker]

Post by Byker
"When war broke out in Europe in 1914, it surprised a European population
enjoying the most beautiful summer in memory." Lots of folks remember the
summer of 1939 the same way, that is, until Sept. 1st.

Complete nonsense - my late grandmother was VERY VERY plain in her view
that from the time Hitler occupied Prague (Jan 1939) the view was nearly
universal that it wasn't IF war was coming but WHEN and the feeling was
that they did well to get to September without war.

They remember it as experienced within their own personal bubbles, as seen
through rose-colored glasses. I remember reading somewhere of how shocked
one British historian was when he went through a series of old letters
between his mother and grandmother, as mom and grandma reminisced about how
wonderful the summer of 1916 was (!). Never mind the carnage of Verdun and
the Somme. Unless you had a friend or relative dying in the trenches, the
war was something that might as well have happened on another planet.

At the same time in France, a serialized superhero entertained theater
audiences: https://tinyurl.com/y5dtagl7
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLu3tPCftY2qdny5j5OkR5YInQW4UtUyts

Post by Byker
Reportedly the German military brass years before, upon seeing Buffalo
Bill's Wild West Show, paid particular attention as to how the troupe was
able to load all those men and animals on a train and move them to their
next venue in short order...

Hmmm. I heard the same story about the Germans and Ringling Brothers.

The way I heard it:

"In 1885, Buffalo Bill hired Annie [Oakley] and her husband for his Wild
West Show and toured with the show for sixteen years. They performed
throughout the United States and eventually, across Europe. Annie was the
star of the show, and Frank was working as her manager and assistant.

"In 1890, Annie was performing in Berlin where among the audience was
Friedrich Wilhelm II, the last German Emperor (Kaiser) and King of Prussia.
He was a great admirer of Oakley’s performances who previously had been to
several runs of the show.

"During the show, Annie asked a for a volunteer to accept risking his life
by holding a cigarette in his mouth from which she would attempt to shoot
the ashes. She did this regularly while performing, but until that day no
one was brave enough to accept the challenge except for her husband who
always stepped forward as her assistant.

"However, there was a volunteer that time, and it was the Kaiser himself. He
was the last person which Annie expected to volunteer for this dangerous
shooting act, but she had no choice and invited him onto the stage. She knew
that he was one of the most powerful men in Europe and that his life was in
her hands. She raised her Colt .45 while Kaiser placed a cigar in his mouth
and she pulled the trigger.

"She blew away the ashes right off the Kaiser’s cigarette. Had the bullet
hit him instead of the cigarette placed in his mouth, the event would have
changed the course of the history."

https://tinyurl.com/yyqy7tbq

[Byker]

Had any of the great powers known in 1914 what they were facing by 1918-19
I doubt any of them would have gone to war.

I wonder: Had Queen Victoria lived as long as the Queen Mum, she could have
put her foot down and snapped, "Stop it! Stop this nonsense right now, you
naughty boys!"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Elizabeth_The_Queen_Mother

For instance in 5 years Britain went from world's greatest creditor to
world's greatest debtor and the Empire was never quite the same.

But for WWI and consequently WWII, Britain and France could have held on to
their colonies for at least another century...

[Rich Rostrom]

Post by Byker
But for WWI and consequently WWII, Britain and
France could have held on to their colonies for at
least another century...

Wrong. Colonial rule was a giant exception to the principle
of democracy. It was acceptable only because of the great
difference in culture between the European nations and the
colonized peoples.

In the 20th century, this difference greatly diminished,
and the colonized peoples began to ask why the colonizers
ruled them. To this, the colonizers had no answer except
"might makes right" - and that was no longer acceptable
in an era of democracy.

This feeling was already widespread before WW I. Kipling
mocked it in several of his stories and poems.

I would add that the US was fundamentally opposed to
colonialism, and regardless of the world wars, the US
was going to be the dominant power in the world.

I suppose it's _possible_ that absent the world wars,
British colonies generally would have become self-
governing Dominions within the "Empire", not just the
"white Dominions", and the title "Empire" would be
retained instead of "Commonwealth". But I can't see
more than that.

And with French colonies, anything like that is not
workable. Though there was consideration of expanding
"France" to include colonies and make _citoyens_ of
the natives. Algeria was legally a part of metropolitan
France, though the natives were not fully franchised;
in Jules Verne's novel _The Barsac Expedition_, two
members of the Chamber of Deputies traverse West Africa
to determine whether the natives are fit for that; and
today, several of France's island colonies are ruled
from France and vote in French elections.

[Byker]

Post by Byker
But for WWI and consequently WWII, Britain and
France could have held on to their colonies for at
least another century...

Wrong. Colonial rule was a giant exception to the principle of democracy.
It was acceptable only because of the great difference in culture between
the European nations and the colonized peoples.
In the 20th century, this difference greatly diminished, and the colonized
peoples began to ask why the colonizers ruled them. To this, the
colonizers had no answer except "might makes right" - and that was no
longer acceptable in an era of democracy.
This feeling was already widespread before WW I. Kipling mocked it in
several of his stories and poems.

Yup:

Nowadays it seems that the developing world is now the Yellow Man's Burden:

https://www.quora.com/Is-China-colonizing-Africa

https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/09/25/chinas-new-colonialism/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2018/08/04/china-is-treating-africa-the-same-way-european-colonists-did/




































I would add that the US was fundamentally opposed to
colonialism, and regardless of the world wars, the US
was going to be the dominant power in the world.

I suppose it's _possible_ that absent the world wars,
British colonies generally would have become self-
governing Dominions within the "Empire", not just the
"white Dominions", and the title "Empire" would be
retained instead of "Commonwealth". But I can't see
more than that.

And with French colonies, anything like that is not
workable. Though there was consideration of expanding
"France" to include colonies and make _citoyens_ of
the natives. Algeria was legally a part of metropolitan
France, though the natives were not fully franchised;
in Jules Verne's novel _The Barsac Expedition_, two
members of the Chamber of Deputies traverse West Africa
to determine whether the natives are fit for that; and
today, several of France's island colonies are ruled
from France and vote in French elections.

[Byker]

But let us assume that Russia goes to war if Germany wins, then France
will be left facing Germany alone.

At which time the Frogs will sue for peace, cede a couple
more provinces, like in 1871, and call it a draw...

[SolomonW]

Post by Byker

But let us assume that Russia goes to war if Germany wins, then France
will be left facing Germany alone.

At which time the Frogs will sue for peace, cede a couple
more provinces, like in 1871, and call it a draw...

More likely go down fighting once Germany pushed them too much.

[Byker]

As it happened, British entry into the war wasn't long term at all.

I wonder what Lord Kitchener 's private thoughts were
once the war turned into a morass: https://tinyurl.com/y3xfx5fj

Loading Image...

Undoubtedly he said "God save the King" as he
went down with the ship: https://tinyurl.com/y5kl7ypa

[Byker]

I doubt it was the Kaiser himself but the high officials in the German
government who were looking for a chance.

The Kaiser was not personally involved in the backdoor work of inciting
Austria to war, but he had for years been rattling sabers. He told King
Albert of Belgium that war with France was inevitable, and hinted strongly
that the irresistible German army would march across Belgium, which should
submit quietly. He was equally bellicose in Austria, regarding Russia.

In the face of such boasts, both Britain and France had for years been
preparing militarily for such an eventuality, and German military leaders
were chomping at the bit to get things going before being outspent and
"overtaken."

[SolomonW]

Post by Byker

I doubt it was the Kaiser himself but the high officials in the German
government who were looking for a chance.

The Kaiser was not personally involved in the backdoor work of inciting
Austria to war, but he had for years been rattling sabers. He told King
Albert of Belgium that war with France was inevitable, and hinted strongly
that the irresistible German army would march across Belgium, which should
submit quietly. He was equally bellicose in Austria, regarding Russia.

In the face of such boasts, both Britain and France had for years been
preparing militarily for such an eventuality, and German military leaders
were chomping at the bit to get things going before being outspent and
"overtaken."

It was Russia that really worried them. It had the biggest army and was
fast modernising. To the German militarist, this was getting close to the
last chance to beat Russia. They were right about this.

[Yeechang Lee]

Post by SolomonW
It was Russia that really worried them. It had the biggest army and
was fast modernising. To the German militarist, this was getting
close to the last chance to beat Russia. They were right about this.

Fromkin's *Europe's Last Summer* says that although Germany wanted to
war against Russia before the window for victory closed, Russia was so
backward that any improvement seemed to be larger than it actually
was. (Made me think of modern China.) The "partial mobilization" that
the Czar ordered during the month before war was declared actually
hurt readiness in some ways.

That said, Austria-Hungary was no better. The army that Germany
believed it absolutely needed to hold off the Russians was supposed to
attack Serbia and seize Belgrade immediately after Franz Ferdinand's
assassination, giving the rest of Europe a fait accompli and
discouraging France and Britain from aiding Russia, but in practice
took a month to move against Serbia ... then lost!

[Rich Rostrom]

In article

"A Moose in Love" wrote in message

A most shameful treaty shoved down the throat of the Germans at bayonet
point.

It's called "losing a war". Start a war (which Germany did), lose the war,
and the winners will decide the terms.

Was it really a treaty, or a provocation for a continued war?

Hardly anybody in Germany wanted to fight another war. Some Germans were
offended that Germany was deprived of military power, but it made no
practical difference to the average German.

Hitler rebuilt German military power, which was gratifying, and then
decided to use it. Which was not necessary. Even top commanders like
von Brauchitsch and Halder were sure it would end badly.