Post by Rich RostromPost by WolfBearWhat if Abraham Lincoln had survived the
assassination attempt on him? How would the rest of
his Presidency have looked like?
Lincoln wanted an "easy peace". He wanted ex-Confederates
to return quietly to private lives, and hinted that he
would prefer it if Davis and other CSA leaders escaped
the country.
He also wanted to see white and black Southerners work
out their new relationship peacefully and with minimal
outside intervention.
But he _was_ committed to fundamental change, and at the
time of his death was moving toward true civil equality
for blacks. Not completely, not right away, but he wanted
at least a start in that direction, including suffrage
for at least some blacks.
He would not have accepted, as Johnson did, the "Conservative
Reconstruction of 1865-1866, in which ex-Confederates took
control of state governments and enacted "Black Codes" that
practically reinstated slavery.
Also - big difference - Johnson was a partisan Democrat, who
welcomed those governments because they were exclusively
Democrat. Lincoln was a partisan Republican, who would have
sought to establish the Republican Party in the South, by
patronage appointments and other techniques.
Lincoln was a former Whig, and there were lots of
former Whigs in the South who shared Lincoln's views
on such traditional Whig issues as the tariff,
"internal improvements", and a national bank (was that
still a viable idea by the 1860s?). With the slavery
issue dead and buried, many would be open to becoming
Republicans, if recruited.
Lincoln would begin recruiting them immediately, and
with considerable expertise. Johnson of course did not,
and Grant was no political operator. Besides which, by
the time Grant took office, the lines had already formed,
with essentially all politically active whites drawn into
the white supremacist Democrat organizations.
Post by WolfBearFor instance, are we still going to see the 14th and
15th Amendments in this TL?
Good question. It depends on how violent and how successful
white Southern resistance is. OTL, it was so strong that
the two amendments seemed to be necessary to overcome it.
But Lincoln, ISTM, would undermine that resistance and also
defuse it. The amendments, by immediately enfranchising all
black men, threatened social revolution in large areas of
the South, where blacks were the majority. Blacks would
control local governments in many areas, including law
enforcement. Black men with the legal authority to lay hands
on white men???? Unthinkable! Intolerable!! And so the Klan
and other violent "Redeemers".
Lincoln would not go there. He would demand changes white
Southerners would be reluctant to grant, but not anything
that would scare them into violent resistance. This could
obviate the need for anything like the OTL amendments.
The question is whether the moderate changes imposed by
Lincoln would persist, and eventually lead to full civil
equality, or would remain insignificant and be rolled back.
OTL, the Republican Party in the South became quite as
racist as the Democrats after 1900, and the end of
black voting. In several states, the Republicans were
divided between "Black-and-Tan" and "Lily White"
factions; after 1900, the latter were all that
remained. In 1900-1930, Republican Presidents pandered
to the Lily Whites in return for Southern Republican
support at national conventions. (The Southern
delegations were small, reflecting the small
Republican vote in those states, but in aggregate were
a substantial voting bloc.)
ITTL, the Republicans in the South would be stronger from
the start, but also much more tied to pre-War ideas about
white supremacy. So they would be likely to become "Lily
Whites".
--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.
Indeed, it looks like we might see a stronger Republican Party in the Southern U.S.--even after the end of Reconstruction--in this TL. Frankly, I wonder if we could even see a mini-Marshall Plan for the Southern U.S. in this TL. I mean, I doubt it, but the Whigs were more receptive to internal improvements than the Democrats and--as you said--Lincoln would have probably began aggressively recruiting former Whigs. Also, pushing through a program of industrialization and economic improvement for the Southern U.S. could result in many poor Southern Whites flocking to the Republican Party and thus ensuring that the planter class in the Southern U.S. does not rise back to the top of the political echelon.
Also, as a side note, without the 14th and 15th Amendments, are we going to see the end of segregation and anti-miscegenation laws achieved through action of the state level rather than through the courts? After all, without these two amendments, what would the basis be for judicial invalidation of these things?