What if Dubya did not push for Palestinian elections in the 2000s?

[Rob]

The Bush Administration pushed for Palestinian elections in the 2000s as part of an inconsistent but enthusiastic push for democratic reforms of regimes the US disliked.

The result was a Hamas victory and its knock-ons, a Hamas-Fatah/PA civil war and a split of Gaza and the West Bank between the two factions, a Gaza war later and a blockade. Somewhere in there was the Israeli unilateral withdrawal from Gaza.

What if the US had more realistic expectations of what it would hear if it queried the voice of the Palestinian people, and did not push the election concept.

What goes differently in the history of Gaza, intra-Palestinian relations and do forth?

[WolfBear]

Post by Rob
The Bush Administration pushed for Palestinian elections in the 2000s as part of an inconsistent but enthusiastic push for democratic reforms of regimes the US disliked.
The result was a Hamas victory and its knock-ons, a Hamas-Fatah/PA civil war and a split of Gaza and the West Bank between the two factions, a Gaza war later and a blockade. Somewhere in there was the Israeli unilateral withdrawal from Gaza.
What if the US had more realistic expectations of what it would hear if it queried the voice of the Palestinian people, and did not push the election concept.
What goes differently in the history of Gaza, intra-Palestinian relations and do forth?

Other than a delay in various events (such as the Palestinian civil war), I'm not sure that much would have changed. After all, if Bush wouldn't insist on Palestinian elections, Obama might later on, and Hamas would probably still win these elections since Fatah was corrupt and dysfunctional. Indeed, please keep in mind that, in spite of being a terrorist organization, Hamas generated a lot of goodwill for itself among the Palestinian people by engaging in various charity and social projects, et cetera.

[SolomonW]

Post by WolfBear

Post by Rob
The Bush Administration pushed for Palestinian elections in the 2000s as part of an inconsistent but enthusiastic push for democratic reforms of regimes the US disliked.
The result was a Hamas victory and its knock-ons, a Hamas-Fatah/PA civil war and a split of Gaza and the West Bank between the two factions, a Gaza war later and a blockade. Somewhere in there was the Israeli unilateral withdrawal from Gaza.
What if the US had more realistic expectations of what it would hear if it queried the voice of the Palestinian people, and did not push the election concept.
What goes differently in the history of Gaza, intra-Palestinian relations and do forth?

Other than a delay in various events (such as the Palestinian civil war), I'm not sure that much would have changed. After all, if Bush wouldn't insist on Palestinian elections, Obama might later on, and Hamas would probably still win these elections since Fatah was corrupt and dysfunctional. Indeed, please keep in mind that, in spite of being a terrorist organization, Hamas generated a lot of goodwill for itself among the Palestinian people by engaging in various charity and social projects, et cetera.

HAMAS was the big winner, no election and HAMAS would have been sidelined