How much more Jews would there have been in the U.S. right now without the Holocaust?

[WolfBear]

Without the Holocaust (for instance, by having Adolf Hitler get killed in 1923--thus also very possibly ensuring that there would have been no World War II), how much more Jews would there have been in the U.S. right now?

After all, while U.S. immigration quotas significantly reduced Jewish immigration to the U.S. after 1924, I certainly can't imagine these quotas surviving indefinitely. Also, while the Civil Rights Movement might be somewhat delayed in this TL due to the lack of World War II and the Cold War, it would still eventually occur in this TL. Indeed, I certainly can't imagine a Civil Rights Movement in this TL not to also address the U.S.'s 1924 immigration quotas.

Thus, how many Jews would have immigrated to the U.S. after the U.S.'s immigration quotas would have been loosened (whenever that would have been--possibly in the 1980s or beyond) in this TL?

Any thoughts on this?

Also, without a massive post-World War II baby boom, how much smaller is the U.S.'s total population going to be in this TL?

[Rob]

Post by WolfBear
Without the Holocaust (for instance, by having Adolf Hitler get killed in 1923--thus also very possibly ensuring that there would have been no World War II), how much more Jews would there have been in the U.S. right now?
After all, while U.S. immigration quotas significantly reduced Jewish immigration to the U.S. after 1924, I certainly can't imagine these quotas surviving indefinitely. Also, while the Civil Rights Movement might be somewhat delayed in this TL due to the lack of World War II and the Cold War, it would still eventually occur in this TL. Indeed, I certainly can't imagine a Civil Rights Movement in this TL not to also address the U.S.'s 1924 immigration quotas.
Thus, how many Jews would have immigrated to the U.S. after the U.S.'s immigration quotas would have been loosened (whenever that would have been--possibly in the 1980s or beyond) in this TL?
Any thoughts on this?
Also, without a massive post-World War II baby boom, how much smaller is the U.S.'s total population going to be in this TL?

You mean "How many...."

[Rich Rostrom]

Post by WolfBear
Without the Holocaust (for instance, by having Adolf
Hitler get killed in 1923--thus also very possibly
ensuring that there would have been no World War
II), how much more Jews would there have been in the
U.S. right now?

There are a lot of related questions. A fair number
of Jews arrived in the US as refugees during and
after WW II, who would never have left Eastern
Europe without the war and Nazi persecutions.

(E.g. the Satmar Hasidim.)

(Or, for that matter, _Mitteleurope_ - Germany
and Austria. Consider how many Hollywood figures
of the 1930s and 1940s were Jews who moved to
escape Nazism, such as Billy Wilder.)

Another big question is Soviet-American relations.
A substantial part of today's American Jewry is
post 1970-immigrants from the Soviet Union and
their descendants.

[WolfBear]

Post by Rich Rostrom

Post by WolfBear
Without the Holocaust (for instance, by having Adolf
Hitler get killed in 1923--thus also very possibly
ensuring that there would have been no World War
II), how much more Jews would there have been in the
U.S. right now?

There are a lot of related questions. A fair number
of Jews arrived in the US as refugees during and
after WW II, who would never have left Eastern
Europe without the war and Nazi persecutions.
(E.g. the Satmar Hasidim.)

It's true that most of the German Jews would have probably stayed in Germany without Hitler and the Nazis.

That said, though, many Polish Jews (I'm less sure about Czech, Hungarian, et cetera Jews) would probably still want to immigrate to the U.S. even if they would lack the opportunity to do so for the time being due to the 1920s immigration quotas.

Post by Rich Rostrom
(Or, for that matter, _Mitteleurope_ - Germany
and Austria. Consider how many Hollywood figures
of the 1930s and 1940s were Jews who moved to
escape Nazism, such as Billy Wilder.)

I think that you mean "Mitteleuropa."

Also, Yes, understood.

Indeed, if I had to make a rough guess, I'd say that the U.S. took in around 100,000 Jews from Germany and Austria between 1933 and 1941 and perhaps another 100,000 to 200,000 from Europe after the end of World War II.

Post by Rich Rostrom
Another big question is Soviet-American relations.
A substantial part of today's American Jewry is
post 1970-immigrants from the Soviet Union and
their descendants.

Actually, it appears to only be 5% of the total U.S. Jewish population (in other words, about 300,000 out of 6 million):

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/bernie-sanders-trump-russians/477045/

"Most of those who’ve immigrated from the former Soviet Union to the United States over the past few decades have been Jewish. Estimates of America’s Russian-speaking Jewish population range from 350,000 to 750,000, and about 40,000 of them settled in the Bay Area. Jews born in the Soviet Union now account for about 5 percent of the American Jewish population."

If you'll take a look at the immigration data, this will probably be about right. Indeed, something like 125,000 Soviet Jews immigrated to the U.S. between 1976 and 1988 and perhaps another 200,000 (ex-)Soviet Jews immigrated to the U.S. starting from 1989.

Thus, in the grand scheme of things, the Nazi-induced Jewish migrations (including the post-World War II migrations of Holocaust survivors) plus immigration of Soviet Jews might have added perhaps half a million Jews to the U.S.'s total Jewish population. I doubt that this number would have changed much due to natural growth due to the fact that Soviet Jews appear to have had a low birth rate ever since the 1950s (and I'm presuming that the story was similar for German and Austrian Jews).

However, in this TL, the lack of German Jewish immigration to the U.S. will probably be more than compensated by additional Polish Jewish immigration to the U.S. Plus, there would have probably been some growth in the total Jewish population in Poland up to the late 20th century due to population momentum (though this might have been blunted and reduced somewhat if Jewish-Polish intermarriage is going to significantly increase--like intermarriage did for Soviet Jews during the 20th century).

Post by Rich Rostrom
--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

[t***@gmail.com]

Post by WolfBear
Without the Holocaust (for instance, by having Adolf Hitler get killed in 1923--thus also very possibly ensuring that there would have been no World War II), how much more Jews would there have been in the U.S. right now?
After all, while U.S. immigration quotas significantly reduced Jewish immigration to the U.S. after 1924, I certainly can't imagine these quotas surviving indefinitely. Also, while the Civil Rights Movement might be somewhat delayed in this TL due to the lack of World War II and the Cold War, it would still eventually occur in this TL. Indeed, I certainly can't imagine a Civil Rights Movement in this TL not to also address the U.S.'s 1924 immigration quotas.
Thus, how many Jews would have immigrated to the U.S. after the U.S.'s immigration quotas would have been loosened (whenever that would have been--possibly in the 1980s or beyond) in this TL?
Any thoughts on this?
Also, without a massive post-World War II baby boom, how much smaller is the U.S.'s total population going to be in this TL?

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