Discussion:
17 years back - early 1927 Weimar Germany is ISOT'ed to early 1910 Europe
(too old to reply)
Rob
2018-03-10 18:00:09 UTC
Permalink
ASBs send the Weimar Republic of 1927 back in time to its same territorial footprint in 1910.

This means the 1910, 2nd Reich versions of Alsace-Lorraine, northern Schleswig and West Prussia & Posen still exist in international law as part of Germany.

The Germans have the front-line troops in those particular regions and fortresses (I like "clean" ISOTs, people away moving with the land they are on), but obviously they are not armed "in-depth" and they have lost the reserve structure as it existed in 1910 in the interior.

However, the Germans have more advanced technology and tactical/operational concepts.

How does Weimar Germany and the various components of its society (politicians, industry, workers, military) conduct itself in its new environment.

On the one hand, post-Versailles Germany had a big chip on its shoulder that could motivate a warlike attitude.

On the other hand, its basic set of revanchist claims, the 1914 European and colonial frontiers, have been granted.

Plus, while the population knew the suffering and costs and outcome of the war even while others had begun to nostalgia or glamorize it. Also, the reparations burden is entirely lifted/voided.

Is this Germany going to be trying to keep things peaceful and try to restrain Austria-Hungary or abandon its alliance with her?

Or is this Germany going to have internal political changes to an extreme regime and seek an opportunity for war on favorable terms?

As for the Entente powers, as news of future history flows in, will they be encouraged to aggress on Germany because they know they can win? Or because they think they better do it now before Germany can integrate its military systems and rearm in-depth?

This is the cabinet of the of the Weimar Republic at this time:

President Paul Hindenburg
Chancellor Wilhelm Marx - (Zentrum)
Minister of Defense - Otto Gessler
Chief of the Reichswehr - Wilhelm Heye
Chief of Navy - Hans Zenker
Minister of Foreign Affairs - Gustav Stresseman

Poll:
Will Germany be seeking war if sent back like this?
A) Yes
B) No
C) It will not, but the Entente will force a war
WolfBear
2018-03-10 20:02:54 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rob
ASBs send the Weimar Republic of 1927 back in time to its same territorial footprint in 1910.
OK.
Post by Rob
This means the 1910, 2nd Reich versions of Alsace-Lorraine, northern Schleswig and West Prussia & Posen still exist in international law as part of Germany.
OK.
Post by Rob
The Germans have the front-line troops in those particular regions and fortresses (I like "clean" ISOTs, people away moving with the land they are on), but obviously they are not armed "in-depth" and they have lost the reserve structure as it existed in 1910 in the interior.
OK.
Post by Rob
However, the Germans have more advanced technology and tactical/operational concepts.
OK.
Post by Rob
How does Weimar Germany and the various components of its society (politicians, industry, workers, military) conduct itself in its new environment.
It probably tries extremely hard to avoid war.
Post by Rob
On the one hand, post-Versailles Germany had a big chip on its shoulder that could motivate a warlike attitude.
What big chip?
Post by Rob
On the other hand, its basic set of revanchist claims, the 1914 European and colonial frontiers, have been granted.
Yes--which is why Weimar Germany is unlikely to go to war in this TL.
Post by Rob
Plus, while the population knew the suffering and costs and outcome of the war even while others had begun to nostalgia or glamorize it. Also, the reparations burden is entirely lifted/voided.
Yes, this is entirely correct and another reason why Weimar Germany won't go to war.
Post by Rob
Is this Germany going to be trying to keep things peaceful and try to restrain Austria-Hungary or abandon its alliance with her?
Yes, it will try to keep things peaceful. Indeed, the only possible exception that there might be to this would be if Weimar Germany will try to sponsor Pan-Germans in Austria-Hungary in an attempt to break it up. After all, Weimar Germany doesn't appear to have had an issue with having more Catholics in Germany.
Post by Rob
Or is this Germany going to have internal political changes to an extreme regime and seek an opportunity for war on favorable terms?
To be honest, I doubt it.

However, it is possible that Germany will decide to go to war once it is ready but avoid unrestricted submarine warfare. After all, that and the resulting U.S. entry is what really cost Germany the war.
Post by Rob
As for the Entente powers, as news of future history flows in, will they be encouraged to aggress on Germany because they know they can win? Or because they think they better do it now before Germany can integrate its military systems and rearm in-depth?
How exactly would they know that much about future history?
Post by Rob
President Paul Hindenburg
Chancellor Wilhelm Marx - (Zentrum)
Minister of Defense - Otto Gessler
Chief of the Reichswehr - Wilhelm Heye
Chief of Navy - Hans Zenker
Minister of Foreign Affairs - Gustav Stresseman
Will Germany be seeking war if sent back like this?
A) Yes
B) No
C) It will not, but the Entente will force a war
Probably not, but if there will be a large appetite for a revival of the Brest-Litovsk peace treaty, then the answer might be Yes--but only after Germany sufficiently rearms and is ready.
Rob
2018-03-10 22:57:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by WolfBear
Post by Rob
On the one hand, post-Versailles Germany had a big chip on its shoulder that could motivate a warlike attitude.
What big chip?
Knowledge of the war dead killed by Allied troops, anger at Entente pre-war encirclement and sponsorship of terrorism, knowledge of Germany's vulnerability to blockade and the privation that caused, knowledge of the reparations bill.

Combined with a feeling that any "defeat" was a fluke and that the proper and natural order of things is that the Prussian-Germans *win* their wars.
Post by WolfBear
Post by Rob
Is this Germany going to be trying to keep things peaceful and try to restrain Austria-Hungary or abandon its alliance with her?
Yes, it will try to keep things peaceful. Indeed, the only possible exception that there might be to this would be if Weimar Germany will try to sponsor Pan-Germans in Austria-Hungary in an attempt to break it up. After all, Weimar Germany doesn't appear to have had an issue with having more Catholics in Germany.
OK
Post by WolfBear
However, it is possible that Germany will decide to go to war once it is ready but avoid unrestricted submarine warfare. After all, that and the resulting U.S. entry is what really cost Germany the war.
I am not sure if the Germans of the 1920s saw this as the decisive factor. There were retired navy people who probably were arguing that earlier, more continuous U-Boat attacks would have won the war.
Post by WolfBear
Post by Rob
As for the Entente powers, as news of future history flows in, will they be encouraged to aggress on Germany because they know they can win? Or because they think they better do it now before Germany can integrate its military systems and rearm in-depth?
How exactly would they know that much about future history?
The "secret" of future history is a secret millions know. A secret that millions know is not really a secret. People talk. And not just Germans. There's the thousands of foreigners who lived in 1927 Germany.
WolfBear
2018-03-10 20:20:08 UTC
Permalink
Frankly, if Weimar Germany was smart, it would give significant autonomy to Alsace-Lorraine and agree to hold a plebiscite there, say, 20 or 30 years later in exchange for having Germany be admitted into the Franco-Russian alliance.

Also, Weimar Germany would ask Russia to jointly partition Austria-Hungary together with it (along with Italy, Romania, and Serbia, of course). In such a scenario, Weimar Germany would acquire the Sudetenland, Czechia, Austria, the Burgenland, Pressburg (Bratislava), South Tyrol, and *maybe* Slovenia.
Rob
2018-03-10 23:14:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by WolfBear
Frankly, if Weimar Germany was smart, it would give significant autonomy to Alsace-Lorraine and agree to hold a plebiscite there, say, 20 or 30 years later in exchange for having Germany be admitted into the Franco-Russian alliance.
Advocating this or proposing such a deal would be a pretty good way to boost the far right vote and get assassinated by a right-winger.

Would the French and Russians even be interested in that?

For France, it is highly deferred gratification.
Post by WolfBear
Also, Weimar Germany would ask Russia to jointly partition Austria-Hungary together with it (along with Italy, Romania, and Serbia, of course). In such a scenario, Weimar Germany would acquire the Sudetenland, Czechia, Austria, the Burgenland, Pressburg (Bratislava), South Tyrol, and *maybe* Slovenia.
This trades the "Alsace-Lorraine problem" for a brand new "Czech problem".

Also, presumably the Germans would get Bohemia (and Austria) long before any there is any chance of them ceding Alsace-Lorraine.

Would 1910 Russia and France accede to such a strengthening of Germany? I think France would feel especially threatened by such an aggrandized Germany.

And the French and Russians had talks as early as the 1890s anticipating an Austro-Hungarian collapse and talking about how to forestall the "problem" of Germany gaining too much power from such an event.

How were German relations with the Versailles successor states in 1927 anyway? Would they see positive relations with boosted up Italy, Romania and Serbia as likely? Would they see it as more beneficial and safer for Germany than a larger empire led by ethnic Germans and Magyars?

I get it. There would be people in Weimar arguing for liquidating the political liabilities of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. On the other hand, they would likely see a united Austro-Hungarian sphere as less hobbled by trade barriers and better for Germany economically.

Plus, there's a big danger of partition discussions backfiring, especially if the Germans do this fairly quickly after their transportation. The Germans are largely defenseless, especially in the east and south. Getting into a partition means Austria-Hungary is betrayed and crushed but if the other partitioners then turn against Germany, Germany has no way to stop them.
WolfBear
2018-03-11 02:11:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rob
Post by WolfBear
Frankly, if Weimar Germany was smart, it would give significant autonomy to Alsace-Lorraine and agree to hold a plebiscite there, say, 20 or 30 years later in exchange for having Germany be admitted into the Franco-Russian alliance.
Advocating this or proposing such a deal would be a pretty good way to boost the far right vote and get assassinated by a right-winger.
Are you sure about that? After all, as far as I can tell, interwar Germans don't appear to have complained that much about Alsace-Lorraine.
Post by Rob
Would the French and Russians even be interested in that?
Maybe, maybe not.
Post by Rob
For France, it is highly deferred gratification.
Well, Alsatians need to get a taste of good German rule before they can vote in such a plebiscite.
Post by Rob
Post by WolfBear
Also, Weimar Germany would ask Russia to jointly partition Austria-Hungary together with it (along with Italy, Romania, and Serbia, of course). In such a scenario, Weimar Germany would acquire the Sudetenland, Czechia, Austria, the Burgenland, Pressburg (Bratislava), South Tyrol, and *maybe* Slovenia.
This trades the "Alsace-Lorraine problem" for a brand new "Czech problem".
True, but couldn't there be the potential to assimilate the Czechs in the style of the Sorbs? I mean, a Czech state without the Sudetenland would be significantly hurt and Slovakia will either remain in Hungarian hands or be transferred to Russia.
Post by Rob
Also, presumably the Germans would get Bohemia (and Austria) long before any there is any chance of them ceding Alsace-Lorraine.
Austria and Bohemia appear to be worth more than Alsace-Lorraine is, though. Indeed, their combined population is something like ten times that of Alsace-Lorraine.
Post by Rob
Would 1910 Russia and France accede to such a strengthening of Germany? I think France would feel especially threatened by such an aggrandized Germany.
That's precisely why I am offering France an eventual plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine as a sweetener. Indeed, I want France to agree to this.

As for Russia, it could boast about unifying the triune Russian nation. Heck, it could even get Slovakia as a bonus!
Post by Rob
And the French and Russians had talks as early as the 1890s anticipating an Austro-Hungarian collapse and talking about how to forestall the "problem" of Germany gaining too much power from such an event.
That was at a time when Germany was not open to an eventual return of Alsace-Lorraine to France, though.
Post by Rob
How were German relations with the Versailles successor states in 1927 anyway? Would they see positive relations with boosted up Italy, Romania and Serbia as likely? Would they see it as more beneficial and safer for Germany than a larger empire led by ethnic Germans and Magyars?
You know, I suspect that they would be more inclined to support small states due to the fact that small states would pose less of a threat to Germany than Austria-Hungary would. True, A-H is weak by itself, but if it allies with Britain and France, it could be a much larger problem.
Post by Rob
I get it. There would be people in Weimar arguing for liquidating the political liabilities of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. On the other hand, they would likely see a united Austro-Hungarian sphere as less hobbled by trade barriers and better for Germany economically.
It might be somewhat better for Germany economically, but there is a serious political risk of Austria-Hungary eventually leaving the German orbit and allying with Britain and France. Indeed, it's easier to bully smaller countries than it is to bully larger countries.
Post by Rob
Plus, there's a big danger of partition discussions backfiring, especially if the Germans do this fairly quickly after their transportation. The Germans are largely defenseless, especially in the east and south. Getting into a partition means Austria-Hungary is betrayed and crushed but if the other partitioners then turn against Germany, Germany has no way to stop them.
That's why Germany should build up its military before it actually engages in these discussions.
Rob
2018-03-24 19:12:06 UTC
Permalink
Bumping for interest, and for giving folks besides just Wolfbear an opportunity to respond. Seen this Rich Rostrom, Ed Stasiak, Alex Milman, Horny Goat?
The Horny Goat
2018-03-25 01:35:25 UTC
Permalink
On Sat, 24 Mar 2018 12:12:06 -0700 (PDT), Rob
Post by Rob
Bumping for interest, and for giving folks besides just Wolfbear an opportunity to respond. Seen this Rich Rostrom, Ed Stasiak, Alex Milman, Horny Goat?
I tend to think ISOT scenarios are silly but having an overnight
revolution in Germany instituting Wilhelm Marx (of the Catholic
Zentrum party) as chancellor would be interesting. For one thing he
was the second longest serviing Chancellor of the Weimar Republic and
was one of only two that served two years. (The other was Bruning who
was also Zentrum)

A Catholic dominated government in the 1910-14 period would be less
likely to support military efforts in Europe and might well succeed in
keeping the peace in August 1914 with obvious knock-on effects.

It would be interesting to see how this would impact the career of the
future Cardinal Pacelli (aka Pope Pius XII) who spent most of the
early 1920s in Bavaria. Amongst other things he is supposed to have
met Hitler before the NSDAP became a significant force....
Rob
2018-03-25 15:22:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by The Horny Goat
On Sat, 24 Mar 2018 12:12:06 -0700 (PDT), Rob
Post by Rob
Bumping for interest, and for giving folks besides just Wolfbear an opportunity to respond. Seen this Rich Rostrom, Ed Stasiak, Alex Milman, Horny Goat?
I tend to think ISOT scenarios are silly but having an overnight
revolution in Germany instituting Wilhelm Marx (of the Catholic
Zentrum party) as chancellor would be interesting. For one thing he
was the second longest serviing Chancellor of the Weimar Republic and
was one of only two that served two years. (The other was Bruning who
was also Zentrum)
A Catholic dominated government in the 1910-14 period would be less
likely to support military efforts in Europe and might well succeed in
keeping the peace in August 1914 with obvious knock-on effects.
It would be interesting to see how this would impact the career of the
future Cardinal Pacelli (aka Pope Pius XII) who spent most of the
early 1920s in Bavaria. Amongst other things he is supposed to have
met Hitler before the NSDAP became a significant force....
I would agree that Zentrum's instincts would be for peace. Socialists would obviously go along. Even reactionaries in Germany would at least need to come up with a brand new batch of grievances and rationalizations for a bellicose or expansive policy, because all the European and colonial territorial losses Germany suffered from WWI and Versailles are made good.

But it takes two to make peace (or keep the peace). How committed would France and Russia (or even Britain) be to keeping the European peace, especially if they get the idea that this Germany could ravage them in the future, but that is actually quite weak in terms of existing military forces, but only for *right now*. Could this create a constituency in France and Russia for crushing Germany *now* for revanche, recovery of Alsace-Lorraine, and liquidation of the Austrian and Ottoman Empires while the odds favor the Entente? Maybe even the British and Japanese think it an opportune moment to loot Germany of its overseas colonies.
t***@gmail.com
2018-03-17 13:20:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rob
ASBs send the Weimar Republic of 1927 back in time to its same territorial footprint in 1910.
This means the 1910, 2nd Reich versions of Alsace-Lorraine, northern Schleswig and West Prussia & Posen still exist in international law as part of Germany.
The Germans have the front-line troops in those particular regions and fortresses (I like "clean" ISOTs, people away moving with the land they are on), but obviously they are not armed "in-depth" and they have lost the reserve structure as it existed in 1910 in the interior.
However, the Germans have more advanced technology and tactical/operational concepts.
How does Weimar Germany and the various components of its society (politicians, industry, workers, military) conduct itself in its new environment.
On the one hand, post-Versailles Germany had a big chip on its shoulder that could motivate a warlike attitude.
On the other hand, its basic set of revanchist claims, the 1914 European and colonial frontiers, have been granted.
Plus, while the population knew the suffering and costs and outcome of the war even while others had begun to nostalgia or glamorize it. Also, the reparations burden is entirely lifted/voided.
Is this Germany going to be trying to keep things peaceful and try to restrain Austria-Hungary or abandon its alliance with her?
Or is this Germany going to have internal political changes to an extreme regime and seek an opportunity for war on favorable terms?
As for the Entente powers, as news of future history flows in, will they be encouraged to aggress on Germany because they know they can win? Or because they think they better do it now before Germany can integrate its military systems and rearm in-depth?
President Paul Hindenburg
Chancellor Wilhelm Marx - (Zentrum)
Minister of Defense - Otto Gessler
Chief of the Reichswehr - Wilhelm Heye
Chief of Navy - Hans Zenker
Minister of Foreign Affairs - Gustav Stresseman
Will Germany be seeking war if sent back like this?
A) Yes
B) No
C) It will not, but the Entente will force a war
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