Russian-Japanese war 1905, a Russian victory

[SolomonW]

I am part way through the book "The End of Tsarist Russia: The March to
World War I and Revolution" by Dominic Lieven and very much enjoying it.
What it does is explain the challengers from a Russian government
perspective, something that I have few books do well and for our proposes
it full of interesting PODs.

Here is the first one, I will present to you for your comments, mainly
because we have recently here in Alex's POD discussed a very similar POD so
hopefully it is fresh on our minds.

Russia military position by the end of the Russian-Japanese war, was
actually getting better and improving while Japan was close to breaking.
What happened is that the Russian leadership decided because of the 1905
revolution, to stop fighting.

Change a little and as we have seen here Russia could have defeated Japan
on land. With a victory its unlikely the 1905 revolution happens. Russia
then starts to drive the Japanese out of Korea and China. Although clearly
Japan would win on the sea so Japan itself would be military safe.

Would the British and US allow the Russians to drive out the Japanese in
Korea and China?

What would a defeated Japan be like? As it was the Japanese economy was in
shambles because of the expense of this war. Here without a victory, the
Japanese public would be raging against its leaders for starting this war.
As it was the Japanese public was mad and had huge demonstrations because
of the miserable terms Japan got from Russia from this war.

How many troops and resources would Russia need to hold its new position?

Dominic Lieven view was win or lose; this war was going to be disaster for
Russia. What are you views?

[Don P]

Post by SolomonW
I am part way through the book "The End of Tsarist Russia: The March to
World War I and Revolution" by Dominic Lieven and very much enjoying it.
. . .
Russia military position by the end of the Russian-Japanese war, was
actually getting better and improving while Japan was close to breaking.
What happened is that the Russian leadership decided because of the 1905
revolution, to stop fighting.
Change a little and as we have seen here Russia could have defeated Japan
on land. With a victory its unlikely the 1905 revolution happens. Russia
then starts to drive the Japanese out of Korea and China. . . .

This seems to make little sense:
1. Japan fielded a modern army (and a modern navy.) No opponent could
support an equally modern army on a single railway track. (What
evidence is there that, after the destruction of two fleets, Russia's
"military position . . . was actually getting better"?
2. The "1905 revolution" was precipitated by the Russian army's firing
on mass protesters at the palace. How would a victory thousands of
miles away make army commanders less likely to shoot civilians?

[SolomonW]

Post by Don P

Post by SolomonW
I am part way through the book "The End of Tsarist Russia: The March to
World War I and Revolution" by Dominic Lieven and very much enjoying it.
. . .
Russia military position by the end of the Russian-Japanese war, was
actually getting better and improving while Japan was close to breaking.
What happened is that the Russian leadership decided because of the 1905
revolution, to stop fighting.
Change a little and as we have seen here Russia could have defeated Japan
on land. With a victory its unlikely the 1905 revolution happens. Russia
then starts to drive the Japanese out of Korea and China. . . .

1. Japan fielded a modern army (and a modern navy.)

Yep

Post by Don P
No opponent could
support an equally modern army on a single railway track.

The Russian armies in the area were already being supplied a modern army in
the region, and the Russians were continuing to build up their forces in
the region.

Post by Don P
(What
evidence is there that, after the destruction of two fleets, Russia's
"military position . . . was actually getting better"?

The Japanese economy was in real trouble and the Japanese forces in
Manchuria as they advanced were over extending their supply lines. The
Russian army was getting bigger, and the Russia had much more substantial
reinforcements than Japan to draw on while the Japanese army was at max.

Post by Don P
2. The "1905 revolution" was precipitated by the Russian army's firing
on mass protesters at the palace. How would a victory thousands of
miles away make army commanders less likely to shoot civilians?

It is unlikely in the short term that Russia military position would change
much; it would take time for the Russian reinforcements to make an effect.
In the meantime, an unpopular war is creating divisions in society. To the
Russian leadership, it aint worth the cost of continuing the war.