No Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth

[Rich Rostrom]

What would this mean for Poland, Lithuania and their neighbors?

Poland is simply a fairly strong country to the
east of Germany, and has much less involvement
with affairs in Ukraine, Russia, or the upper Baltic.

This probably means more Polish involvement
in Germany and Hungary.

Lithuania is not united with Poland, and thus
more likely to become Orthodox and unite with
Russia. What about "Russian-Lithuanian
Commonwealth" with an elective monarchy?

BTW, if Lithuania is Orthodox , ISTM that would
exacerbate the conflict between Lithuania and
the Teutonic Order.

One question: Lithuanians today and for the last
several hundred years are a very small _demos_:
less than 3M people today. Yet medieval Lithuania
was a peer of countries that are much larger.
Was the medieval Lithuanian population relatively
larger? Or did medieval Lithuania have a lot of
non-Lithuanian subjects adding to its muscle?

(As with Hungary, where the medieval kingdom
included the Croats, the Slovaks, and about half
of the Serbs and Romanians.)

(Note: I know that Lithuania at its greater extent
included a great many Belarussians and Ukrainians,
but what I wonder about is how such a small people
could subjugate such a large area. It seems unlikely
that it was all done by a relative handful of
Lithuanian speakers.)

[Ed Stasiak]

Alex Milman
no future Polish expansion into Ukraine (Lithuanian territory, just as Belorussia), no
direct contact with the Ottomans or the Muscovite state (at least for quite a while).

I remember reading somewhere that the union between Poland and Lithuania
was the underlying cause of Poland’s ultimate downfall, as it shifted the focus
of the Poles to the east and off of the greater threat that the Germans represented.

So no union would likely mean Poland retains Silesia and Pomerania and contests
Austria (i.e. the Germans) for Czechia and also Poland would have more extensive
and closer contacts with Western Europe, all of which would shift the attitude of the
nobility from their belief that lounging around managing their farming estates (and
fighting in wars) was the only “honorable” lifestyle for them.

[Alex Milman]

Post by Ed Stasiak

Alex Milman
no future Polish expansion into Ukraine (Lithuanian territory, just as Belorussia), no
direct contact with the Ottomans or the Muscovite state (at least for quite a while).

I remember reading somewhere that the union between Poland and Lithuania
was the underlying cause of Poland’s ultimate downfall, as it shifted the focus
of the Poles to the east and off of the greater threat that the Germans represented.

Taking into an account that the term "Drang Nach Osten" was invented by a Polish journalist I would not make too much out of the danger from the West. :-)

Taking into an account that the medieval Germany was more advanced than the medieval Poland, German influence meant access to more modern technology and other "benefits of civilization". Not that there was a serious German encroachment into the Polish lands (Prussia was _claimed_ to be Polish but its population, were the Old Prussians, not Poles).

Polish downfall had been caused by their internal anarchy even at the face of a clear and present danger and as far as the outside factors were concerned, the Commonwealth became de facto Russian vassal state well before the 1st Partition (of course it can be argued that Catherine II was German and as such represented a part of the Great German Threat :-)).

Post by Ed Stasiak
So no union would likely mean Poland retains Silesia and Pomerania

Well, they lost Silesia to _Bohemia_ in the XIII century (officially recognized in 1335) so it would be rather difficult to find any German threat there.

As for Pomerania, Poland had a historic claim only to Pomerelia which was lost in the XIV century and returned in 1466 to became Royal Prussia.

The Dukes of Pomerania (Griffin dynasty) were vassals (by conquest) of Poland from 1122 to 1138; of the Duchy of Saxony from 1164 to 1181, of the Holy Roman Empire from 1181 to 1185, of Denmark from 1185 to 1227 and the Holy Roman Empire again from 1227 to 1806 (including periods of vassalage to the Margraves of Brandenburg).

So what exactly they'd go to "retain"? :-)

Post by Ed Stasiak
and contests
Austria (i.e. the Germans) for Czechia

Well, this could be interesting.

Post by Ed Stasiak
and also Poland would have more extensive
and closer contacts with Western Europe, all of which would shift the attitude of the
nobility from their belief that lounging around managing their farming estates (and
fighting in wars) was the only “honorable” lifestyle for them.

IMHO, this is a highly idealized picture. In OTL Kingdom of Poland maintained a close contact with Western Europe both culturally and politically.

In the XVII wives of at least 3 kings of Poland were from France, wife of King Michał Korybut Wiśniowiecki was daughter of the Emperor, they had 3 kings of the Saxon dynasty, one French king (who fled to became a King of France), there were numerous Western European candidates to the throne of Poland. The Commonwealth was a part of the greater European political schemas.

Polish magnates routinely had German, Hungarian and Scottish troops in their private armies. Many of them traveled extensively, adopted Western (French) costumes, etc.

All of the above did not change the fact that the ruling class was looking only for its own interests and what you wrote about their beliefs could be easily applied to the French nobility of the time of Louis XIV. The fundamental difference was in the fact that in France they could do all these things but had been subordinate to a strong royal power while in the Commonwealth the royal power had been subordinate to their whims. This difference, and not a German threat led to the decline and ruin of the Commonwealth.

[Alex Milman]

Post by Rich Rostrom

What would this mean for Poland, Lithuania and their neighbors?

Poland is simply a fairly strong country to the
east of Germany, and has much less involvement
with affairs in Ukraine, Russia, or the upper Baltic.

Strictly speaking, in OTL there was a territorial dispute about ownership of Podolia and Volhynia. These areas were given to Witold ((Vytautas) only for his life time. But to simplify the issue, let's assume that they are a part of Lithuania.

Post by Rich Rostrom
This probably means more Polish involvement
in Germany and Hungary.

Yes. The important question is about ability of the Polish state to keep up with the developments on the West. In OTL by the time of Grunwald the Teutonic Order was somewhat ahead in the terms of the knightly armor and even had few pieces of a field artillery. With a passage of time the gap may or may not grow.

Post by Rich Rostrom
Lithuania is not united with Poland, and thus
more likely to become Orthodox and unite with
Russia.
What about "Russian-Lithuanian
Commonwealth" with an elective monarchy?

Well, let's do it one step in a time. :-)

"Russia" as a meaningful (more or less) single entity did not exist until well into mid-XV century and even by that time Lithuania included more "Russian" (including Belorussian and Ukrainian) lands than Muscovite state.

Now about the union. Witold ended up being an officially recognized protector of the Great Princedom of Moscow: his only daughter was a widow of the late Grand Prince Vasily I and ruled in the name of her young son Vasily II. In OTL after Witold's death the Lithuanian nobles unilaterally elected his brother Švitrigaila as the Grand Duke, which was contrary to the existing agreement which required approval of the King of Poland. The only achievement of his short reign was granting equal rights to Catholic and Orthodox nobles. Then there was a war between him and his cousin Sigismund Kęstutaitis and eventually the crown went to brother of the Polish King Casimir Jagiellon (who became a king of Poland in 1447).

So if we assume that in ATL the ruling Grand Duke of Lithuania (approximately in Witold's time frame) managed to marry his only daughter to a Grand Prince of Moscow AND to get rid of all his brothers and cousins, then you have a plausible candidate to the united throne, young Grand Prince of Moscow who is his grandson and is not going to interfere into the Lithuanian affairs for quite a few years.

Of course, Muscovite state at that time does not include all "Russian" lands not owned by Lithuania and until the reign of Ivan III (son of Vasily II) even control of the lands formally subdued to Moscow is rather shaky and Moscow is paying tribute to the Golden Horde but this can be a beginning of a beautiful friendship, especially taking into an account that, when he grew up, Vasily II proved to be more than a little bit incompetent. OTOH, his son, Ivan III "the Great" could be a problem.

At that time elective monarchy was not completely out of question in Russia/Muscovite state. Or there could be scenario under which Great Prince of Moscow is being elected as Grand Duke of Lithuania: Ivan IV proposed such a schema and it got a noticeable traction among the Lithuanian nobility.

Post by Rich Rostrom
BTW, if Lithuania is Orthodox ,

It could be, as in OTL, a mixture of Orthodox and Catholic areas but the Orthodox ones probably would represent a majority.

Post by Rich Rostrom
ISTM that would
exacerbate the conflict between Lithuania and
the Teutonic Order.

In OTL by the time of Witold a big part of the Grand Duchy was Orthodox, some part of it was Catholic and quarrel with the Order was about the part about which nobody was quite sure, Samogitia. The problem was not as much with its religion but rather with its population. As soon as Teutonic Order had been saddled with the Livonian Order they they needed a land bridge which happen to be Samogitia. The area was reasonably easily ceded by Lithuania because (a) it had zero value and (b) it was still on a tribal level of social development and would going to rebel against ANY centralized power. Of course, soon enough the Order was accusing Witold in inciting the rebellion (which was true but they'd rebel anyway) and the rest is history. IIRC, there was at least one Order's expedition as far as Smolensk princedom but it was not about the conversion, just a part of the military activities.

To make a long story short, I don't think that a stronger Orthodox influence would change things too much but an absence of the Polish involvement is a completely different story: Lithuania, with all its territory, was not capable of standing up to the Teutonic Order on her own. It could not even raise comparable number of troops and it was almost completely lacking a heavy cavalry.

Of course, we can assume that by the reasons of its own Kingdom of Poland allies with Lithuania for this or that specific war.

Post by Rich Rostrom
One question: Lithuanians today and for the last
less than 3M people today. Yet medieval Lithuania
was a peer of countries that are much larger.
Was the medieval Lithuanian population relatively
larger? Or did medieval Lithuania have a lot of
non-Lithuanian subjects adding to its muscle?

For the questions like that you can be crucified by the modern Belarussian "patriots" who are insisting that true Lithuania is Belarus. :-)

OK, in the medieval Lithuania the modern Lithuania was a relatively small and rather backward part. The rest were the lands of today's Belarus, big part of Ukraine and Western Russia (especially Principality of Smolensk). Territory-wise the Grand Duchy (prior to creation of the Commonwealth when it lost Ukraine to Poland) was much bigger than Poland but most of it was sparsely populated, especially in Lithuanian proper and in a big part of Belarussia (there are big wooded areas even now).

As far as being a "peer", well, the neighbors to the East were, until later, even weaker and disunited (the reason why Lithuania was able to expand that much). As I wrote above, with all his lands Witold could not fight a "regular war" against Teutonic Order with its much smaller territory and for Poland Lithuania was a junior partner.

Post by Rich Rostrom
(As with Hungary, where the medieval kingdom
included the Croats, the Slovaks, and about half
of the Serbs and Romanians.)

Well, I'd dare to say that this was an opposite example: the most developed nucleus state exercising control over the less developed satellites. In the case of Lithuania the "nucleus" was the most backward part of the whole.

The closest analog would be Mongolian Empire as long as its nucleus still was in the steppe.

Post by Rich Rostrom
(Note: I know that Lithuania at its greater extent
included a great many Belarussians and Ukrainians,
but what I wonder about is how such a small people
could subjugate such a large area. It seems unlikely
that it was all done by a relative handful of
Lithuanian speakers.)

You have to consider things in a historic context. By the time of the Lithuanian expansion there was no single Belarussian or Ukrainian state but rather a combination of the small quarreling princedoms. In the case of Ukraine these entities had been weakened by the Mongolian raids which eventually destroyed Princedom of Galitz-Volynia. Even a reasonably small numbers of the Lithuanian raiders (they were, as far as I can tell, a light cavalry) were stronger than the small bands of the local princes and, anyway, joining Lithuania meant avoiding the raids. Plus, which was a big factor, in most cases submission was a rather formal thing: a local prince was swearing loyalty to the Duke of Lithuania and retained his power with the usual obligations to join the military expeditions, etc. As a benefit, there was at least some protection against other predators including Tatars. There was no obligation NOT to serve another ruler (in expedition against Mamay army of Prince Dmitry of Moscow had been packed with the prominent Lithuanians who hold the top positions; some of them later had been killed at Worskla serving, again, Witold). Even more, such a prince had a right to change sovereign _WITH HIS LANDS_. Happened quite often when the Orthodox Lithuanian princes and nobility felt themselves "oppressed" by Catholic Church. Big part of the top Russian aristocracy had Lithuanian roots.

[Rich Rostrom]

Post by Alex Milman

Post by Rich Rostrom
(Note: I know that Lithuania at its greater extent
included a great many Belarussians and Ukrainians,
but what I wonder about is how such a small people
could subjugate such a large area. It seems unlikely
that it was all done by a relative handful of
Lithuanian speakers.)

You have to consider things in a historic context.
By the time of the Lithuanian expansion there was no
single Belarussian or Ukrainian state but rather a
combination of the small quarreling princedoms. In
the case of Ukraine these entities had been weakened
by the Mongolian raids which eventually destroyed
Princedom of Galitz-Volynia. Even a reasonably small
numbers of the Lithuanian raiders (they were, as far
as I can tell, a light cavalry) were stronger than
the small bands of the local princes and, anyway,
joining Lithuania meant avoiding the raids.

It makes sense that there was a power vacuum (which
I had understood was the result of the Mongol incursion).
Then a minor statelet like Lithuania might expand far
and fast. But such conquests almost never last very long.

Stronger powers move in, or the natives of the conquered
area form an internal force, cast off the conquerors, and
establish new states. This usually happened within 10-40
years.

But Lithuania's conquests lasted for centuries.

[Alex Milman]

Post by Rich Rostrom

Post by Alex Milman

Post by Rich Rostrom
(Note: I know that Lithuania at its greater extent
included a great many Belarussians and Ukrainians,
but what I wonder about is how such a small people
could subjugate such a large area. It seems unlikely
that it was all done by a relative handful of
Lithuanian speakers.)

You have to consider things in a historic context.
By the time of the Lithuanian expansion there was no
single Belarussian or Ukrainian state but rather a
combination of the small quarreling princedoms. In
the case of Ukraine these entities had been weakened
by the Mongolian raids which eventually destroyed
Princedom of Galitz-Volynia. Even a reasonably small
numbers of the Lithuanian raiders (they were, as far
as I can tell, a light cavalry) were stronger than
the small bands of the local princes and, anyway,
joining Lithuania meant avoiding the raids.

It makes sense that there was a power vacuum (which
I had understood was the result of the Mongol incursion).
Then a minor statelet like Lithuania might expand far
and fast. But such conquests almost never last very long.

Well, strictly speaking the Golden Horde also was something of the kind (the Mongols had been a tiny minority) and it lasted for centuries.

Post by Rich Rostrom
Stronger powers move in, or the natives of the conquered
area form an internal force, cast off the conquerors, and
establish new states. This usually happened within 10-40
years.
But Lithuania's conquests lasted for centuries.

1st, there was no real "stronger power" in the neighborhood as far as the "Russian" territories were involved.

The Great Princedom of Moscow only started qualifying as such (with a lot of caveats) during the reign of Ivan III and it had to consolidate the rest of the "free" Russian territories and deal with the Golden Horde on the West.
The 1st serious attempt to expand into the "Russian" lands of Lithuania happened during the reign of Ivan IV as a part of the Livonian War and its early success prompted creation of the Commonwealth. While Ivan's armies could deal with the Lithuanians due to the overwhelming numeric advantage, they could not successfully fight the Poles (not until the XVII and even then they had been regularly beaten). So, following your reasoning above, you can say that, as soon as the strong neighbor appeared and became active, Lithuania got itself protected by a stronger neighbor, Poland (to which it immediately lost Ukraine).


On the "western front" there was Teutonic Order and, while the Lithuanians could do some raiding and guerrilla war, the Order's troops could (and did) march into pretty much any place they wanted. Things had been made more complicated by the Polish-Lithuanian union (but Witold sided with the Order more than once) but the only territory in which the Order was really interested was Samogitia - a land connection to Livonia. Plus, an effective occupation of a big chunk of Lithuania would require much greater numbers than Order could afford and as a settlement area Lithuania proper was hardly an attractive place. More "civilized" areas like Smolensk were on a wrong side of it and, anyway, Order started having its own problems of which you are well aware.

Union with Poland happened relatively early and it allowed Polish nobility to settle in the Lithuanian lands with eventual adaptation of the Polish culture by the Lithuanian nobility.

Now, as far as the "natives" were involved, I already explained why, for quite a while they did not care too much about being the subjects of Lithuania rulers: the intervention into the internal affairs of the Russian princedoms was minimal. The tensions started later when the Orthodox nobility did not get the same rights as the Catholics. Some of the Russian princes voluntarily became subjects of the growing Muscovite state, some eventually converted to Catholicism and the rest of the issue had been more or less resolved by the Lublin Union which created the Commonwealth and transferred Ukraine to Poland where nobles of both creeds had equal rights. Eventually, most of the nobility converted to Catholicism (by mid-XVII there were still some prominent Orthodox figures) and that left only the issue of the equal rights for the Orthodox bishops which had been used by Catherine II as one of the excuses for the 1st Partition.

[Rob]

On Tuesday, March 6, 2018 at 3:59:22 PM UTC-5, Alex Milman wrote:

Maybe Poland ends up fairly weak and small, and is forced into the Holy Roman Empire, like Bohemia.

It retains its slavic character, but that only comes to the fore in the age of modern nationalism,

[Alex Milman]

Post by Rob
Maybe Poland ends up fairly weak and small, and is forced into the Holy Roman Empire, like Bohemia.

If, as was the premise, it has a reasonably strong royal power and is not burdened with the "Eastern front" (need to help Lithuania, deal with the Cossacks, Tatars and Ottomans) that it is still not too small (bigger than most of the Central European states of the time) and not necessarily weak: even with all its weaknesses it was able to stand up to Sweden in the early XVII and to be considered a significant military power as late as mid-XVII.

I don't see how a formal inclusion into the HRE (why and how would it happen?) could change anything substantially.

Post by Rob
It retains its slavic character, but that only comes to the fore in the age of modern nationalism,

AFAIK, Polish nationalism was fully developed by the XVI and never was based on _Slavic_ component. Danzig area was predominantly German but they stood up to the Swedish invaders at the time of GA and during the Deluge.

[e***@gmail.com]

1st, From the time it became a kingdom (in 1320 under Władysław I Łokietek) Kingdom of Poland has a strong HEREDITARY royal power with a reasonably smooth switch between the dynasties ("French style" - closest suitable relative of the extinct dynasty, no elections that would give nobility too much of a ...er... "liberty").
2nd, Poland is NEVER united with Lithuania. No personal union, no Commonwealth: no future Polish expansion into Ukraine (Lithuanian territory, just as Belorussia), no direct contact with the Ottomans or the Muscovite state (at least for quite a while).
What would this mean for Poland, Lithuania and their neighbors?

https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI
https://groups.google.com/d/topic/soc.history.what-if/CWIic_ncdeI