Alex Milman
2018-03-02 22:35:55 UTC
Premise:
1. Consulate is just established in France: no messianic republicanism but plenty of a healthy greed and "imperialism" (this is just to prevent getting back to the same issue :-)).
2. Territory of the French Republic shrunk to the borders of 1700. The map is in Loading Image...
3. Spain, with which Republic made a peace few years ago has a different Bourbon king, Phillip V, who just learned that France is not a kingdom anymore and desperately trying to digest this fact.
4. Austrian army is already occupying Mantua and due to the absence of the French forces in Italy is going to occupy the Duchy of Milan which belongs to Spain.
5. The Dutch (even a peace party) extensively dislike an idea of the French-dominated Spanish America but due to the ongoing "miracle" (no Bourbons in France) nobody can tell for sure if this is still the case. However (just to simplify the whole scenario), they joined the Grand Alliance and fielded an army of 60,000 men (including hired contingents from the German states), plus 42,000 for garrison duty.
6. Absence of the "Stuarts issue" removes _one_ of the reasons for the British anti-French stance but probably there are more (like a general idea of preventing the growing power of France). As a result, the Brits are planning to raise in 1702 an army of 40,000 men (18.5K Brits, the rest are German auxiliaries). The British-Dutch forces are led by the Duke of Marlborough (who is also a c-in-c of ALL alliance forces).
7. In OTL "...many of the more influential German rulers had other strategic and dynastic priorities, and preferred to enlist many of their troops in the Anglo-Dutch army in exchange for annual subsidies. George Louis, Elector of Hanover, was eager to strengthen his position in England as Queen Anne's heir... The Elector of Brandenburg-Prussia – whose backing Leopold I had secured by recognising him as Frederick I, King in Prussia, as well an equal member of the Grand Alliance – provided a corps of 12,000 men early in the war, but his participation could only be guaranteed by a steady stream of financial and territorial concessions. Frederick IV of Denmark also provided valuable troops in return for subsidies, though he never joined the war against France." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_Spanish_Succession#Grand_Alliance_reassembles
8. Emperor is planning to raise 90K but by 1702 managed to deploy 40K in Italy (under Prince Eugene) and 20K on the Rhine. His armies are plagued by the shortage of funds and supply problems.
9. At the sea the Brits have 127 ships of the line and the Dutch 83. [Does anybody have an idea how these ships of the line compare to those of 1799? Anyway, it looks like they have a considerable advantages both numerically and as far as the training of the crews is involved.]
10. In the early 1800 Consulate had (as in OTL): 120,000 men under Moreau on the German border, 40K under Massena on Italian border, 50K Reserve Army in Dijon (initially under command of Bertier but eventually led by Napoleon). However, these numbers could be increased with a relative ease.
11. Bayonet is already in use by 1700 but while by 1799 the French armies are universally using the socket bayonets, situation is not uniform among their opponents: there are still some plug bayonets (preventing the shooting) in use. IIRC, there were some improvements in the muskets by the time of the Wars of the French Revolution (iron ramrod, etc.) and there definitely were noticeable improvements of artillery during the XVIII century: système Gribeauval introduced in 1765 "revolutionized French cannon, with a new production system that allowed lighter, more uniform guns without sacrificing range".
12. In the area of tactics the Allies are still using the linear tactics which did not, yet, completely "matured" (Frederick II is not around, yet), which give put French some advantage (providing they are properly led). Unlike the Allied troops, the French are not relying upon the magazine system and are much more free in their maneuver and faster in their marches. By 1795 French army had the largest and probably most efficient horse artillery of any contemporary nation (eight regiments of six six-gun batteries each) and over the XVIII century there was a significant progress in artillery's tactical deployment.
Probably it is reasonable to at least assume that the news of the "miracle", as soon as they are digested, may give the members of the Grand Alliance at least some pause: France and Spain are NOT united by the same dynasty and there is no chance for them falling into the same hands. The same goes for the problem with the French recognition of the suddenly disappearing Stuart claimants.
A freshly crowned king of Spain finds himself in a quite confusing position: there is no Louis XIV North of the border (which, in retrospect, could be not such a bad thing) and no Bourbon kings of France at all. But the strangely dressed French representatives are assuring him that there is a peace between Spain and the French Republic (whatever this name means). OTOH, his Austrian relative is already invading his Italian possessions and he does not have an adequate force of his own to stop him. In OTL the job had been done by the troops of his grand-...-dad so how about a possibility to make a mutual defense alliance with these strange French? Of course, it may cost dearly but at least they are not claiming his throne.
On the French side of equation (in France) there is a laundry list of their own:
(a) The French already got used to an idea that they are dominating (and looting) Italy out of which they had been just recently kicked out. The Austrians (under Prince Eugene) invading Northern Italy and perhaps even capturing Milan is just as a good cause for fighting as it was in OTL circa 1800. And if these Austrians are dressed differently and there are only 30K of them instead of 100K in OTL (and they are seemingly even slower than in OTL), it is just a tough luck for the Austrians.
(b) The French also got used to the fact that they are in a possession of Belgium and that there is a vassal Batavian Republic so finding that there are still Spanish Netherlands (how many times are we supposed to conquer the same area?) and that instead of a friendly Batavian Republic there is a hub of the anti-French activities is going to be quite irritating, to put it mildly.
(c) Just as with the cases (a) and (b), finding that the Republic not simply does not have a border on the Rhine but does not even possess a Lorraine, is going to be highly disappointing and is a clear insult to a national dignity. Ah, yes, formally there is still a war with the Empire and the Brits in 1800 even if in 1702 they are only preparing to it.
Taking into an account that the Alliance forces are allocated differently from OTL circa 1800, bulk of the Army of the Rhine (now assembled on the old/new border) is reoriented toward the Netherlands with an observation corps left on the Rhine.
In the Netherlands 120K under Moreau are facing approximately the same number of the Dutch-British-German troops under Marlborough (there was a nasty remark by an author of Eugene's biography that in all his famous victories Marlborough had Eugene as a second in command; now his is on his own :-)). The region is heavily fortified but in OTL this proved to be not too important factor for the French revolutionary armies.
In OTL the Italian Army of Massena had been destroyed and blockaded in Genoa before Nappy took a field; in ATL the Austrian troops are too far away, too slow and suffer from too many problems for such an accomplishment.
Combined 80 - 90K of the Italian and Reserve armies led by the 1st Consul, against Prince Eugene (who, with all his military genius, is not quite up to date) with 30K ill-supplied troops look like more than a little bit of an overkill and perhaps it is not unrealistic to expect that soon the French are marching dangerously close to Vienna (or at least close enough for the emperor to freak out as in OTL).
Taking into an account that in ATL emperor's position is considerably weaker than in OTL (the Ottomans are still powerful and there is a chance of uprising in Hungary) and that the chances of the Austrian claimant to the throne of Spain are weaker (no Bourbons in France make Bourbon in Spain more acceptable to the Brits and Dutch), perhaps he is more eager to make a peace, especially if there is a chance to get Venice as a consolation prize (not sure about that: unlike OTL, he is not losing any territories in Italy so why should he be compensated?).
What is going to happen to the Spanish possessions in Italy if Spain is formally at peace with France or even allied with it?
After dealing with the emperor, the 1st Consul can redirect a big portion of his troops to the Rhine-Netherlands theater. There could be a disagreement regarding command: in OTL Moreau insisted that by the new constitution the 1st Consul should not led ANY military operations. However, when the issue is settled, position of what's remained of the Grand Alliance is hopeless: the Netherlands are occupied, the Brits are evacuated back to their island and the German princes who joined the coalition are going to regret their decision (Bavaria is one of very few 'good boys').
The Brits retain control of the seas at least for quite a while. However, there are noticeable differences from OTL Napoleonic Wars. 1st, Russia is neither military nor economic factor for many decades: no Russian troops fighting for the British subsidies and no Russian economic dependency upon the British trade (especially exports to Britain). Position of Sweden is less clear but in the early 1700's it was leaning more toward France. Of course, by the end of the Great Northern War this would not matter too much but things may at least slightly change if the 1st Consul decided that Brandenburg-Prussia must be punished for choosing the wrong side (and how about the retroactive "revenge for Rossbach"?).
Then again, in the early XVIII Britain is not yet what it became by the early XIX so perhaps the 1st Consul is more successful with the ATL equivalent of the Continental System.
Comments?
1. Consulate is just established in France: no messianic republicanism but plenty of a healthy greed and "imperialism" (this is just to prevent getting back to the same issue :-)).
2. Territory of the French Republic shrunk to the borders of 1700. The map is in Loading Image...
3. Spain, with which Republic made a peace few years ago has a different Bourbon king, Phillip V, who just learned that France is not a kingdom anymore and desperately trying to digest this fact.
4. Austrian army is already occupying Mantua and due to the absence of the French forces in Italy is going to occupy the Duchy of Milan which belongs to Spain.
5. The Dutch (even a peace party) extensively dislike an idea of the French-dominated Spanish America but due to the ongoing "miracle" (no Bourbons in France) nobody can tell for sure if this is still the case. However (just to simplify the whole scenario), they joined the Grand Alliance and fielded an army of 60,000 men (including hired contingents from the German states), plus 42,000 for garrison duty.
6. Absence of the "Stuarts issue" removes _one_ of the reasons for the British anti-French stance but probably there are more (like a general idea of preventing the growing power of France). As a result, the Brits are planning to raise in 1702 an army of 40,000 men (18.5K Brits, the rest are German auxiliaries). The British-Dutch forces are led by the Duke of Marlborough (who is also a c-in-c of ALL alliance forces).
7. In OTL "...many of the more influential German rulers had other strategic and dynastic priorities, and preferred to enlist many of their troops in the Anglo-Dutch army in exchange for annual subsidies. George Louis, Elector of Hanover, was eager to strengthen his position in England as Queen Anne's heir... The Elector of Brandenburg-Prussia – whose backing Leopold I had secured by recognising him as Frederick I, King in Prussia, as well an equal member of the Grand Alliance – provided a corps of 12,000 men early in the war, but his participation could only be guaranteed by a steady stream of financial and territorial concessions. Frederick IV of Denmark also provided valuable troops in return for subsidies, though he never joined the war against France." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_Spanish_Succession#Grand_Alliance_reassembles
8. Emperor is planning to raise 90K but by 1702 managed to deploy 40K in Italy (under Prince Eugene) and 20K on the Rhine. His armies are plagued by the shortage of funds and supply problems.
9. At the sea the Brits have 127 ships of the line and the Dutch 83. [Does anybody have an idea how these ships of the line compare to those of 1799? Anyway, it looks like they have a considerable advantages both numerically and as far as the training of the crews is involved.]
10. In the early 1800 Consulate had (as in OTL): 120,000 men under Moreau on the German border, 40K under Massena on Italian border, 50K Reserve Army in Dijon (initially under command of Bertier but eventually led by Napoleon). However, these numbers could be increased with a relative ease.
11. Bayonet is already in use by 1700 but while by 1799 the French armies are universally using the socket bayonets, situation is not uniform among their opponents: there are still some plug bayonets (preventing the shooting) in use. IIRC, there were some improvements in the muskets by the time of the Wars of the French Revolution (iron ramrod, etc.) and there definitely were noticeable improvements of artillery during the XVIII century: système Gribeauval introduced in 1765 "revolutionized French cannon, with a new production system that allowed lighter, more uniform guns without sacrificing range".
12. In the area of tactics the Allies are still using the linear tactics which did not, yet, completely "matured" (Frederick II is not around, yet), which give put French some advantage (providing they are properly led). Unlike the Allied troops, the French are not relying upon the magazine system and are much more free in their maneuver and faster in their marches. By 1795 French army had the largest and probably most efficient horse artillery of any contemporary nation (eight regiments of six six-gun batteries each) and over the XVIII century there was a significant progress in artillery's tactical deployment.
Probably it is reasonable to at least assume that the news of the "miracle", as soon as they are digested, may give the members of the Grand Alliance at least some pause: France and Spain are NOT united by the same dynasty and there is no chance for them falling into the same hands. The same goes for the problem with the French recognition of the suddenly disappearing Stuart claimants.
A freshly crowned king of Spain finds himself in a quite confusing position: there is no Louis XIV North of the border (which, in retrospect, could be not such a bad thing) and no Bourbon kings of France at all. But the strangely dressed French representatives are assuring him that there is a peace between Spain and the French Republic (whatever this name means). OTOH, his Austrian relative is already invading his Italian possessions and he does not have an adequate force of his own to stop him. In OTL the job had been done by the troops of his grand-...-dad so how about a possibility to make a mutual defense alliance with these strange French? Of course, it may cost dearly but at least they are not claiming his throne.
On the French side of equation (in France) there is a laundry list of their own:
(a) The French already got used to an idea that they are dominating (and looting) Italy out of which they had been just recently kicked out. The Austrians (under Prince Eugene) invading Northern Italy and perhaps even capturing Milan is just as a good cause for fighting as it was in OTL circa 1800. And if these Austrians are dressed differently and there are only 30K of them instead of 100K in OTL (and they are seemingly even slower than in OTL), it is just a tough luck for the Austrians.
(b) The French also got used to the fact that they are in a possession of Belgium and that there is a vassal Batavian Republic so finding that there are still Spanish Netherlands (how many times are we supposed to conquer the same area?) and that instead of a friendly Batavian Republic there is a hub of the anti-French activities is going to be quite irritating, to put it mildly.
(c) Just as with the cases (a) and (b), finding that the Republic not simply does not have a border on the Rhine but does not even possess a Lorraine, is going to be highly disappointing and is a clear insult to a national dignity. Ah, yes, formally there is still a war with the Empire and the Brits in 1800 even if in 1702 they are only preparing to it.
Taking into an account that the Alliance forces are allocated differently from OTL circa 1800, bulk of the Army of the Rhine (now assembled on the old/new border) is reoriented toward the Netherlands with an observation corps left on the Rhine.
In the Netherlands 120K under Moreau are facing approximately the same number of the Dutch-British-German troops under Marlborough (there was a nasty remark by an author of Eugene's biography that in all his famous victories Marlborough had Eugene as a second in command; now his is on his own :-)). The region is heavily fortified but in OTL this proved to be not too important factor for the French revolutionary armies.
In OTL the Italian Army of Massena had been destroyed and blockaded in Genoa before Nappy took a field; in ATL the Austrian troops are too far away, too slow and suffer from too many problems for such an accomplishment.
Combined 80 - 90K of the Italian and Reserve armies led by the 1st Consul, against Prince Eugene (who, with all his military genius, is not quite up to date) with 30K ill-supplied troops look like more than a little bit of an overkill and perhaps it is not unrealistic to expect that soon the French are marching dangerously close to Vienna (or at least close enough for the emperor to freak out as in OTL).
Taking into an account that in ATL emperor's position is considerably weaker than in OTL (the Ottomans are still powerful and there is a chance of uprising in Hungary) and that the chances of the Austrian claimant to the throne of Spain are weaker (no Bourbons in France make Bourbon in Spain more acceptable to the Brits and Dutch), perhaps he is more eager to make a peace, especially if there is a chance to get Venice as a consolation prize (not sure about that: unlike OTL, he is not losing any territories in Italy so why should he be compensated?).
What is going to happen to the Spanish possessions in Italy if Spain is formally at peace with France or even allied with it?
After dealing with the emperor, the 1st Consul can redirect a big portion of his troops to the Rhine-Netherlands theater. There could be a disagreement regarding command: in OTL Moreau insisted that by the new constitution the 1st Consul should not led ANY military operations. However, when the issue is settled, position of what's remained of the Grand Alliance is hopeless: the Netherlands are occupied, the Brits are evacuated back to their island and the German princes who joined the coalition are going to regret their decision (Bavaria is one of very few 'good boys').
The Brits retain control of the seas at least for quite a while. However, there are noticeable differences from OTL Napoleonic Wars. 1st, Russia is neither military nor economic factor for many decades: no Russian troops fighting for the British subsidies and no Russian economic dependency upon the British trade (especially exports to Britain). Position of Sweden is less clear but in the early 1700's it was leaning more toward France. Of course, by the end of the Great Northern War this would not matter too much but things may at least slightly change if the 1st Consul decided that Brandenburg-Prussia must be punished for choosing the wrong side (and how about the retroactive "revenge for Rossbach"?).
Then again, in the early XVIII Britain is not yet what it became by the early XIX so perhaps the 1st Consul is more successful with the ATL equivalent of the Continental System.
Comments?