Discussion:
What if Syria had been allowed to develop nukes?
(too old to reply)
a425couple
2018-03-21 17:07:35 UTC
Permalink
What if Syria had been allowed to develop nukes?

March 21, 2018, 8:15 AM
Israeli military confirms it hit Syrian nuclear site in 2007

A combination image shows screen grabs taken from video material
released on March 21, 2018 which the Israeli military describes as an
Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site near Deir
al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Share Tweet Reddit Flipboard Email
TEL AVIV, Israel -- The Israeli military confirmed Wednesday it carried
out the 2007 airstrike in Syria that destroyed what was believed to be a
nuclear reactor, lifting the veil of secrecy over one of its most daring
and mysterious operations in recent memory.

Although Israel was widely believed to have been behind the Sept. 6,
2007, airstrike, it has never before commented publicly on it.

In a lengthy release, the military revealed that eight F-15 fighter jets
carried out the top-secret airstrikes against the facility in the Deir
el-Zour region, about 300 miles northeast of Damascus, destroying a site
that had been in development for years and was scheduled to go into
operation at the end of that year.

A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Israel's involvement has been one of its most closely held secrets, and
it was not immediately clear why Israel decided to go public now. The
military would not comment on its reasoning, but the move could be
related to the upcoming memoir of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who
ordered the strike and has hinted about it for years, or it could be
meant as a warning to archenemy Iran, which is active in Syria.

"The motivation of our enemies has grown in recent years, but so too the
might of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces)," Defense Minister Avigdor
Lieberman said Wednesday. "Everyone in the Middle East would do well to
internalize this equation."

Israel and Syria have always been bitter enemies. Throughout Syria's
seven-year civil war, Israel has carried out well over 100 airstrikes,
most believed to have been aimed at suspected weapons shipments destined
for the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group. Both Iran and Hezbollah
are allied with Syrian President Bashar Assad.

At the time of the 2007 strike, Syria accused Israel of invading its
airspace, but gave no further details about the target.

The pre-mission briefing, made public Wednesday, stated that the
operation should not be attributed to Israel so as to minimize the
potential for an all-out war.

The strike was reminiscent of an Israeli attack in 1981 against a
reactor being built in Iraq. The strike was later credited with
preventing Saddam Hussein from acquiring weapons of mass destruction
that could have been used in the Gulf War a decade later.

"The message from the 2007 attack on the reactor is that Israel will not
tolerate construction that can pose an existential threat," military
chief Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said in Wednesday's statement. "This was
the message in 1981, this is the message in 2007 and this is the future
message to our enemies."

Eisenkot, who at the time commanded Israel's northern front along the
Lebanese and Syrian borders, said it marked Israel's most comprehensive
attack in Syria since the 1973 Mideast war, and that everyone involved
knew it could spark a new one. He said only a handful of top commanders
were aware of the plans for Operation "Outside The Box."

The military said the F-15s took off from two bases in southern Israel
at 10:30 p.m. on Sept. 5 and returned four hours later. Wednesday's
announcement also indicated the Syrian reactor was much closer to
completion than previously reported.

From Israel's perspective, the strike was an astounding success since
it not only destroyed the site, but prevented further escalation and
strengthened its deterrence in the region.

Air force commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin said the current turmoil in
Syria has further vindicated the strike, particularly since the reactor
was in an area later captured by Islamic State militants.

"Imagine what situation we would be in today if there was a nuclear
reactor in Syria," Norkin said. "Israel's decision to destroy the
reactor is one of the most important decisions taken here in the last 70
years."

Uzi Rabi, an expert on Iran at Tel Aviv University, said Israel's
surprising confirmation might be meant as a "warning sign" to Iran as it
expands its military footprint in Syria. Israel has warned against the
establishment of a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria,
particularly in areas close to Israel.

Last month, Israel shot down an Iranian drone that entered its airspace,
triggering a clash in which an Israeli warplane crashed after being
struck by Syrian anti-aircraft fire. Israel responded by bombing Syrian
anti-aircraft batteries.

The military said it began obtaining information regarding foreign
experts helping Syria develop the Deir el-Zour site in late 2004. Later
it discovered that North Korea was helping Syria build a reactor to
manufacture plutonium.

In his memoir, "Decision Points," former President George W. Bush said
Israel first asked the U.S. to bomb the site and then carried out an
attack itself when Washington declined.

The strike came about a year after Israel's inconclusive war against
Hezbollah, in which the Lebanese guerrillas battled Israel's army to a
stalemate. The poor performance raised questions about Israel's
deterrent capabilities.

"Prime Minister Olmert's execution of the strike made up for the
confidence I had lost in the Israelis during the Lebanon war," Bush
wrote, adding that the Israeli leader rejected a suggestion to go public
with the operation.

"Olmert told me he wanted total secrecy. He wanted to avoid anything
that might back Syria into a corner and force Assad to retaliate. This
was his operation, and I felt an obligation to respect his wishes," Bush
wrote.

Olmert has skirted around the issue, and military censors, for years,
repeatedly saying that according to foreign sources Israel had been
involved. After Bush's account was published in 2010, Olmert said: "I
don't want (to), and I can't deny it."

Olmert, who was prime minister from 2006 until 2009 and was recently
released from prison after serving time for corruption, is expected to
delve more deeply into the issue in his upcoming book. The disclosure
looks to help rehabilitate at least part of Olmert's tarnished image
while damaging the legacy of his longtime rival, then-Defense Minister
Ehud Barak, who was reportedly hesitant to strike in Syria.

© 2018 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not
be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-military-confirms-it-hit-syrian-nuclear-site-in-2007/
jerry kraus
2018-03-21 19:43:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by a425couple
What if Syria had been allowed to develop nukes?
March 21, 2018, 8:15 AM
Israeli military confirms it hit Syrian nuclear site in 2007
A combination image shows screen grabs taken from video material
released on March 21, 2018 which the Israeli military describes as an
Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site near Deir
al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Share Tweet Reddit Flipboard Email
TEL AVIV, Israel -- The Israeli military confirmed Wednesday it carried
out the 2007 airstrike in Syria that destroyed what was believed to be a
nuclear reactor, lifting the veil of secrecy over one of its most daring
and mysterious operations in recent memory.
Although Israel was widely believed to have been behind the Sept. 6,
2007, airstrike, it has never before commented publicly on it.
In a lengthy release, the military revealed that eight F-15 fighter jets
carried out the top-secret airstrikes against the facility in the Deir
el-Zour region, about 300 miles northeast of Damascus, destroying a site
that had been in development for years and was scheduled to go into
operation at the end of that year.
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Israel's involvement has been one of its most closely held secrets, and
it was not immediately clear why Israel decided to go public now. The
military would not comment on its reasoning, but the move could be
related to the upcoming memoir of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who
ordered the strike and has hinted about it for years, or it could be
meant as a warning to archenemy Iran, which is active in Syria.
"The motivation of our enemies has grown in recent years, but so too the
might of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces)," Defense Minister Avigdor
Lieberman said Wednesday. "Everyone in the Middle East would do well to
internalize this equation."
Israel and Syria have always been bitter enemies. Throughout Syria's
seven-year civil war, Israel has carried out well over 100 airstrikes,
most believed to have been aimed at suspected weapons shipments destined
for the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group. Both Iran and Hezbollah
are allied with Syrian President Bashar Assad.
At the time of the 2007 strike, Syria accused Israel of invading its
airspace, but gave no further details about the target.
The pre-mission briefing, made public Wednesday, stated that the
operation should not be attributed to Israel so as to minimize the
potential for an all-out war.
The strike was reminiscent of an Israeli attack in 1981 against a
reactor being built in Iraq. The strike was later credited with
preventing Saddam Hussein from acquiring weapons of mass destruction
that could have been used in the Gulf War a decade later.
"The message from the 2007 attack on the reactor is that Israel will not
tolerate construction that can pose an existential threat," military
chief Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said in Wednesday's statement. "This was
the message in 1981, this is the message in 2007 and this is the future
message to our enemies."
Eisenkot, who at the time commanded Israel's northern front along the
Lebanese and Syrian borders, said it marked Israel's most comprehensive
attack in Syria since the 1973 Mideast war, and that everyone involved
knew it could spark a new one. He said only a handful of top commanders
were aware of the plans for Operation "Outside The Box."
The military said the F-15s took off from two bases in southern Israel
at 10:30 p.m. on Sept. 5 and returned four hours later. Wednesday's
announcement also indicated the Syrian reactor was much closer to
completion than previously reported.
From Israel's perspective, the strike was an astounding success since
it not only destroyed the site, but prevented further escalation and
strengthened its deterrence in the region.
Air force commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin said the current turmoil in
Syria has further vindicated the strike, particularly since the reactor
was in an area later captured by Islamic State militants.
"Imagine what situation we would be in today if there was a nuclear
reactor in Syria," Norkin said. "Israel's decision to destroy the
reactor is one of the most important decisions taken here in the last 70
years."
Uzi Rabi, an expert on Iran at Tel Aviv University, said Israel's
surprising confirmation might be meant as a "warning sign" to Iran as it
expands its military footprint in Syria. Israel has warned against the
establishment of a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria,
particularly in areas close to Israel.
Last month, Israel shot down an Iranian drone that entered its airspace,
triggering a clash in which an Israeli warplane crashed after being
struck by Syrian anti-aircraft fire. Israel responded by bombing Syrian
anti-aircraft batteries.
The military said it began obtaining information regarding foreign
experts helping Syria develop the Deir el-Zour site in late 2004. Later
it discovered that North Korea was helping Syria build a reactor to
manufacture plutonium.
In his memoir, "Decision Points," former President George W. Bush said
Israel first asked the U.S. to bomb the site and then carried out an
attack itself when Washington declined.
The strike came about a year after Israel's inconclusive war against
Hezbollah, in which the Lebanese guerrillas battled Israel's army to a
stalemate. The poor performance raised questions about Israel's
deterrent capabilities.
"Prime Minister Olmert's execution of the strike made up for the
confidence I had lost in the Israelis during the Lebanon war," Bush
wrote, adding that the Israeli leader rejected a suggestion to go public
with the operation.
"Olmert told me he wanted total secrecy. He wanted to avoid anything
that might back Syria into a corner and force Assad to retaliate. This
was his operation, and I felt an obligation to respect his wishes," Bush
wrote.
Olmert has skirted around the issue, and military censors, for years,
repeatedly saying that according to foreign sources Israel had been
involved. After Bush's account was published in 2010, Olmert said: "I
don't want (to), and I can't deny it."
Olmert, who was prime minister from 2006 until 2009 and was recently
released from prison after serving time for corruption, is expected to
delve more deeply into the issue in his upcoming book. The disclosure
looks to help rehabilitate at least part of Olmert's tarnished image
while damaging the legacy of his longtime rival, then-Defense Minister
Ehud Barak, who was reportedly hesitant to strike in Syria.
© 2018 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not
be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-military-confirms-it-hit-syrian-nuclear-site-in-2007/
Well, it probably would have taken them a while, and the notion that Israel would have permitted this is really almost humorous. No way, Jose, I'd say. Why on earth would they?

But, just hypothetically, if somehow Israeli attacks could have been restrained. it would certainly change the power dynamics in the Middle East. Suddenly, Israel would be in danger of total annihilation. Of course, they're rather used to that aren't they? So, maybe it wouldn't change things that much, after all. Really, the Arabs want to conquer Israel, they don't want to destroy Israel. And, it's not really clear how a nuclear armed Syria helps with that. Besides, it's pretty clear no one's really willing to use nuclear weapons. So, when nuclear armed China and India fight over disputed territory now, they do it with rocks!

By this stage, are nuclear weapons really much more than a paper tiger? That's what Mao Zedong always said, you know, and he could be very shrewd, in his way.
a425couple
2018-03-21 22:42:22 UTC
Permalink
Post by jerry kraus
Post by a425couple
What if Syria had been allowed to develop nukes?
March 21, 2018, 8:15 AM
Israeli military confirms it hit Syrian nuclear site in 2007
A combination image shows screen grabs taken from video material
released on March 21, 2018 which the Israeli military describes as an
Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site near Deir
al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Share Tweet Reddit Flipboard Email
TEL AVIV, Israel -- The Israeli military confirmed Wednesday it carried
out the 2007 airstrike in Syria that destroyed what was believed to be a
nuclear reactor, lifting the veil of secrecy over one of its most daring
and mysterious operations in recent memory.
Although Israel was widely believed to have been behind the Sept. 6,
2007, airstrike, it has never before commented publicly on it.
In a lengthy release, the military revealed that eight F-15 fighter jets
carried out the top-secret airstrikes against the facility in the Deir
el-Zour region, about 300 miles northeast of Damascus, destroying a site
that had been in development for years and was scheduled to go into
operation at the end of that year.
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Israel's involvement has been one of its most closely held secrets, and
it was not immediately clear why Israel decided to go public now. The
military would not comment on its reasoning, but the move could be
related to the upcoming memoir of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who
ordered the strike and has hinted about it for years, or it could be
meant as a warning to archenemy Iran, which is active in Syria.
"The motivation of our enemies has grown in recent years, but so too the
might of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces)," Defense Minister Avigdor
Lieberman said Wednesday. "Everyone in the Middle East would do well to
internalize this equation."
Israel and Syria have always been bitter enemies. Throughout Syria's
seven-year civil war, Israel has carried out well over 100 airstrikes,
most believed to have been aimed at suspected weapons shipments destined
for the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group. Both Iran and Hezbollah
are allied with Syrian President Bashar Assad.
At the time of the 2007 strike, Syria accused Israel of invading its
airspace, but gave no further details about the target.
The pre-mission briefing, made public Wednesday, stated that the
operation should not be attributed to Israel so as to minimize the
potential for an all-out war.
The strike was reminiscent of an Israeli attack in 1981 against a
reactor being built in Iraq. The strike was later credited with
preventing Saddam Hussein from acquiring weapons of mass destruction
that could have been used in the Gulf War a decade later.
"The message from the 2007 attack on the reactor is that Israel will not
tolerate construction that can pose an existential threat," military
chief Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said in Wednesday's statement. "This was
the message in 1981, this is the message in 2007 and this is the future
message to our enemies."
Eisenkot, who at the time commanded Israel's northern front along the
Lebanese and Syrian borders, said it marked Israel's most comprehensive
attack in Syria since the 1973 Mideast war, and that everyone involved
knew it could spark a new one. He said only a handful of top commanders
were aware of the plans for Operation "Outside The Box."
The military said the F-15s took off from two bases in southern Israel
at 10:30 p.m. on Sept. 5 and returned four hours later. Wednesday's
announcement also indicated the Syrian reactor was much closer to
completion than previously reported.
From Israel's perspective, the strike was an astounding success since
it not only destroyed the site, but prevented further escalation and
strengthened its deterrence in the region.
Air force commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin said the current turmoil in
Syria has further vindicated the strike, particularly since the reactor
was in an area later captured by Islamic State militants.
"Imagine what situation we would be in today if there was a nuclear
reactor in Syria," Norkin said. "Israel's decision to destroy the
reactor is one of the most important decisions taken here in the last 70
years."
Uzi Rabi, an expert on Iran at Tel Aviv University, said Israel's
surprising confirmation might be meant as a "warning sign" to Iran as it
expands its military footprint in Syria. Israel has warned against the
establishment of a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria,
particularly in areas close to Israel.
Last month, Israel shot down an Iranian drone that entered its airspace,
triggering a clash in which an Israeli warplane crashed after being
struck by Syrian anti-aircraft fire. Israel responded by bombing Syrian
anti-aircraft batteries.
The military said it began obtaining information regarding foreign
experts helping Syria develop the Deir el-Zour site in late 2004. Later
it discovered that North Korea was helping Syria build a reactor to
manufacture plutonium.
In his memoir, "Decision Points," former President George W. Bush said
Israel first asked the U.S. to bomb the site and then carried out an
attack itself when Washington declined.
The strike came about a year after Israel's inconclusive war against
Hezbollah, in which the Lebanese guerrillas battled Israel's army to a
stalemate. The poor performance raised questions about Israel's
deterrent capabilities.
"Prime Minister Olmert's execution of the strike made up for the
confidence I had lost in the Israelis during the Lebanon war," Bush
wrote, adding that the Israeli leader rejected a suggestion to go public
with the operation.
"Olmert told me he wanted total secrecy. He wanted to avoid anything
that might back Syria into a corner and force Assad to retaliate. This
was his operation, and I felt an obligation to respect his wishes," Bush
wrote.
Olmert has skirted around the issue, and military censors, for years,
repeatedly saying that according to foreign sources Israel had been
involved. After Bush's account was published in 2010, Olmert said: "I
don't want (to), and I can't deny it."
Olmert, who was prime minister from 2006 until 2009 and was recently
released from prison after serving time for corruption, is expected to
delve more deeply into the issue in his upcoming book. The disclosure
looks to help rehabilitate at least part of Olmert's tarnished image
while damaging the legacy of his longtime rival, then-Defense Minister
Ehud Barak, who was reportedly hesitant to strike in Syria.
© 2018 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not
be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-military-confirms-it-hit-syrian-nuclear-site-in-2007/
Well, it probably would have taken them a while, and the notion that Israel would have permitted this is really almost humorous. No way, Jose, I'd say. Why on earth would they?
But, just hypothetically, if somehow Israeli attacks could have been restrained. it would certainly change the power dynamics in the Middle East. Suddenly, Israel would be in danger of total annihilation. Of course, they're rather used to that aren't they? So, maybe it wouldn't change things that much, after all. Really, the Arabs want to conquer Israel, they don't want to destroy Israel. And, it's not really clear how a nuclear armed Syria helps with that. Besides, it's pretty clear no one's really willing to use nuclear weapons. So, when nuclear armed China and India fight over disputed territory now, they do it with rocks!
By this stage, are nuclear weapons really much more than a paper tiger? That's what Mao Zedong always said, you know, and he could be very shrewd, in his way.
"Really, the Arabs want to conquer Israel,
they don't want to destroy Israel."
Is that also your second opinion?
Dimensional Traveler
2018-03-22 00:37:53 UTC
Permalink
Post by a425couple
Post by jerry kraus
Post by a425couple
What if Syria had been allowed to develop nukes?
   March 21, 2018, 8:15 AM
Israeli military confirms it hit Syrian nuclear site in 2007
A combination image shows screen grabs taken from video material
released on March 21, 2018 which the Israeli military describes as an
Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site near Deir
al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007.  IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Share  Tweet  Reddit  Flipboard  Email
TEL AVIV, Israel -- The Israeli military confirmed Wednesday it carried
out the 2007 airstrike in Syria that destroyed what was believed to be a
nuclear reactor, lifting the veil of secrecy over one of its most daring
and mysterious operations in recent memory.
Although Israel was widely believed to have been behind the Sept. 6,
2007, airstrike, it has never before commented publicly on it.
In a lengthy release, the military revealed that eight F-15 fighter jets
carried out the top-secret airstrikes against the facility in the Deir
el-Zour region, about 300 miles northeast of Damascus, destroying a site
that had been in development for years and was scheduled to go into
operation at the end of that year.
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Israel's involvement has been one of its most closely held secrets, and
it was not immediately clear why Israel decided to go public now. The
military would not comment on its reasoning, but the move could be
related to the upcoming memoir of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who
ordered the strike and has hinted about it for years, or it could be
meant as a warning to archenemy Iran, which is active in Syria.
"The motivation of our enemies has grown in recent years, but so too the
might of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces)," Defense Minister Avigdor
Lieberman said Wednesday. "Everyone in the Middle East would do well to
internalize this equation."
Israel and Syria have always been bitter enemies. Throughout Syria's
seven-year civil war, Israel has carried out well over 100 airstrikes,
most believed to have been aimed at suspected weapons shipments destined
for the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group. Both Iran and Hezbollah
are allied with Syrian President Bashar Assad.
At the time of the 2007 strike, Syria accused Israel of invading its
airspace, but gave no further details about the target.
The pre-mission briefing, made public Wednesday, stated that the
operation should not be attributed to Israel so as to minimize the
potential for an all-out war.
The strike was reminiscent of an Israeli attack in 1981 against a
reactor being built in Iraq. The strike was later credited with
preventing Saddam Hussein from acquiring weapons of mass destruction
that could have been used in the Gulf War a decade later.
"The message from the 2007 attack on the reactor is that Israel will not
tolerate construction that can pose an existential threat," military
chief Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said in Wednesday's statement. "This was
the message in 1981, this is the message in 2007 and this is the future
message to our enemies."
Eisenkot, who at the time commanded Israel's northern front along the
Lebanese and Syrian borders, said it marked Israel's most comprehensive
attack in Syria since the 1973 Mideast war, and that everyone involved
knew it could spark a new one. He said only a handful of top commanders
were aware of the plans for Operation "Outside The Box."
The military said the F-15s took off from two bases in southern Israel
at 10:30 p.m. on Sept. 5 and returned four hours later. Wednesday's
announcement also indicated the Syrian reactor was much closer to
completion than previously reported.
  From Israel's perspective, the strike was an astounding success since
it not only destroyed the site, but prevented further escalation and
strengthened its deterrence in the region.
Air force commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin said the current turmoil in
Syria has further vindicated the strike, particularly since the reactor
was in an area later captured by Islamic State militants.
"Imagine what situation we would be in today if there was a nuclear
reactor in Syria," Norkin said. "Israel's decision to destroy the
reactor is one of the most important decisions taken here in the last 70
years."
Uzi Rabi, an expert on Iran at Tel Aviv University, said Israel's
surprising confirmation might be meant as a "warning sign" to Iran as it
expands its military footprint in Syria. Israel has warned against the
establishment of a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria,
particularly in areas close to Israel.
Last month, Israel shot down an Iranian drone that entered its airspace,
triggering a clash in which an Israeli warplane crashed after being
struck by Syrian anti-aircraft fire. Israel responded by bombing Syrian
anti-aircraft batteries.
The military said it began obtaining information regarding foreign
experts helping Syria develop the Deir el-Zour site in late 2004. Later
it discovered that North Korea was helping Syria build a reactor to
manufacture plutonium.
In his memoir, "Decision Points," former President George W. Bush said
Israel first asked the U.S. to bomb the site and then carried out an
attack itself when Washington declined.
The strike came about a year after Israel's inconclusive war against
Hezbollah, in which the Lebanese guerrillas battled Israel's army to a
stalemate. The poor performance raised questions about Israel's
deterrent capabilities.
"Prime Minister Olmert's execution of the strike made up for the
confidence I had lost in the Israelis during the Lebanon war," Bush
wrote, adding that the Israeli leader rejected a suggestion to go public
with the operation.
"Olmert told me he wanted total secrecy. He wanted to avoid anything
that might back Syria into a corner and force Assad to retaliate. This
was his operation, and I felt an obligation to respect his wishes," Bush
wrote.
Olmert has skirted around the issue, and military censors, for years,
repeatedly saying that according to foreign sources Israel had been
involved. After Bush's account was published in 2010, Olmert said: "I
don't want (to), and I can't deny it."
Olmert, who was prime minister from 2006 until 2009 and was recently
released from prison after serving time for corruption, is expected to
delve more deeply into the issue in his upcoming book. The disclosure
looks to help rehabilitate at least part of Olmert's tarnished image
while damaging the legacy of his longtime rival, then-Defense Minister
Ehud Barak, who was reportedly hesitant to strike in Syria.
© 2018 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not
be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-military-confirms-it-hit-syrian-nuclear-site-in-2007/
Well, it probably would have taken them a while, and the notion that
Israel would have permitted this is really almost humorous.   No way,
Jose, I'd say.   Why on earth would they?
But, just hypothetically, if somehow Israeli attacks could have been
restrained. it would certainly change the power dynamics in the Middle
East.  Suddenly, Israel would be in danger of total annihilation.   Of
course, they're rather used to that aren't they?   So, maybe it
wouldn't change things that much, after all.   Really, the Arabs want
to conquer Israel, they don't want to destroy Israel.   And, it's not
really clear how a nuclear armed Syria helps with that.    Besides,
it's pretty clear no one's really willing to use nuclear weapons.
So, when nuclear armed China and India fight over disputed territory
now, they do it with rocks!
By this stage, are nuclear weapons really much more than a paper
tiger?    That's what Mao Zedong always said, you know, and he could
be very shrewd, in his way.
"Really, the Arabs want to conquer Israel,
they don't want to destroy Israel."
Is that also your second opinion?
The Arabs want to destroy the Jews. Conquering Israel would be the
preferred method but destruction of Israel would, IMO, be an acceptable
second option to them.
--
Inquiring minds want to know while minds with a self-preservation
instinct are running screaming.
SolomonW
2018-03-22 10:35:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by a425couple
What if Syria had been allowed to develop nukes?
March 21, 2018, 8:15 AM
Israeli military confirms it hit Syrian nuclear site in 2007
A combination image shows screen grabs taken from video material
released on March 21, 2018 which the Israeli military describes as an
Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site near Deir
al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Share Tweet Reddit Flipboard Email
TEL AVIV, Israel -- The Israeli military confirmed Wednesday it carried
out the 2007 airstrike in Syria that destroyed what was believed to be a
nuclear reactor, lifting the veil of secrecy over one of its most daring
and mysterious operations in recent memory.
Although Israel was widely believed to have been behind the Sept. 6,
2007, airstrike, it has never before commented publicly on it.
In a lengthy release, the military revealed that eight F-15 fighter jets
carried out the top-secret airstrikes against the facility in the Deir
el-Zour region, about 300 miles northeast of Damascus, destroying a site
that had been in development for years and was scheduled to go into
operation at the end of that year.
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Israel's involvement has been one of its most closely held secrets, and
it was not immediately clear why Israel decided to go public now. The
military would not comment on its reasoning, but the move could be
related to the upcoming memoir of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who
ordered the strike and has hinted about it for years, or it could be
meant as a warning to archenemy Iran, which is active in Syria.
"The motivation of our enemies has grown in recent years, but so too the
might of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces)," Defense Minister Avigdor
Lieberman said Wednesday. "Everyone in the Middle East would do well to
internalize this equation."
Israel and Syria have always been bitter enemies. Throughout Syria's
seven-year civil war, Israel has carried out well over 100 airstrikes,
most believed to have been aimed at suspected weapons shipments destined
for the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group. Both Iran and Hezbollah
are allied with Syrian President Bashar Assad.
At the time of the 2007 strike, Syria accused Israel of invading its
airspace, but gave no further details about the target.
The pre-mission briefing, made public Wednesday, stated that the
operation should not be attributed to Israel so as to minimize the
potential for an all-out war.
The strike was reminiscent of an Israeli attack in 1981 against a
reactor being built in Iraq. The strike was later credited with
preventing Saddam Hussein from acquiring weapons of mass destruction
that could have been used in the Gulf War a decade later.
"The message from the 2007 attack on the reactor is that Israel will not
tolerate construction that can pose an existential threat," military
chief Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said in Wednesday's statement. "This was
the message in 1981, this is the message in 2007 and this is the future
message to our enemies."
Eisenkot, who at the time commanded Israel's northern front along the
Lebanese and Syrian borders, said it marked Israel's most comprehensive
attack in Syria since the 1973 Mideast war, and that everyone involved
knew it could spark a new one. He said only a handful of top commanders
were aware of the plans for Operation "Outside The Box."
The military said the F-15s took off from two bases in southern Israel
at 10:30 p.m. on Sept. 5 and returned four hours later. Wednesday's
announcement also indicated the Syrian reactor was much closer to
completion than previously reported.
From Israel's perspective, the strike was an astounding success since
it not only destroyed the site, but prevented further escalation and
strengthened its deterrence in the region.
Air force commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin said the current turmoil in
Syria has further vindicated the strike, particularly since the reactor
was in an area later captured by Islamic State militants.
"Imagine what situation we would be in today if there was a nuclear
reactor in Syria," Norkin said. "Israel's decision to destroy the
reactor is one of the most important decisions taken here in the last 70
years."
Uzi Rabi, an expert on Iran at Tel Aviv University, said Israel's
surprising confirmation might be meant as a "warning sign" to Iran as it
expands its military footprint in Syria. Israel has warned against the
establishment of a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria,
particularly in areas close to Israel.
Last month, Israel shot down an Iranian drone that entered its airspace,
triggering a clash in which an Israeli warplane crashed after being
struck by Syrian anti-aircraft fire. Israel responded by bombing Syrian
anti-aircraft batteries.
The military said it began obtaining information regarding foreign
experts helping Syria develop the Deir el-Zour site in late 2004. Later
it discovered that North Korea was helping Syria build a reactor to
manufacture plutonium.
In his memoir, "Decision Points," former President George W. Bush said
Israel first asked the U.S. to bomb the site and then carried out an
attack itself when Washington declined.
The strike came about a year after Israel's inconclusive war against
Hezbollah, in which the Lebanese guerrillas battled Israel's army to a
stalemate. The poor performance raised questions about Israel's
deterrent capabilities.
"Prime Minister Olmert's execution of the strike made up for the
confidence I had lost in the Israelis during the Lebanon war," Bush
wrote, adding that the Israeli leader rejected a suggestion to go public
with the operation.
"Olmert told me he wanted total secrecy. He wanted to avoid anything
that might back Syria into a corner and force Assad to retaliate. This
was his operation, and I felt an obligation to respect his wishes," Bush
wrote.
Olmert has skirted around the issue, and military censors, for years,
repeatedly saying that according to foreign sources Israel had been
involved. After Bush's account was published in 2010, Olmert said: "I
don't want (to), and I can't deny it."
Olmert, who was prime minister from 2006 until 2009 and was recently
released from prison after serving time for corruption, is expected to
delve more deeply into the issue in his upcoming book. The disclosure
looks to help rehabilitate at least part of Olmert's tarnished image
while damaging the legacy of his longtime rival, then-Defense Minister
Ehud Barak, who was reportedly hesitant to strike in Syria.
© 2018 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not
be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-military-confirms-it-hit-syrian-nuclear-site-in-2007/
It would take time for Syria to build up several nuclear weapons plus they
need a delivery system.

A Syria with nuclear weapons and a civil war is an interesting POD.
Dean
2018-03-22 12:00:53 UTC
Permalink
Post by SolomonW
Post by a425couple
What if Syria had been allowed to develop nukes?
March 21, 2018, 8:15 AM
Israeli military confirms it hit Syrian nuclear site in 2007
A combination image shows screen grabs taken from video material
released on March 21, 2018 which the Israeli military describes as an
Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site near Deir
al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Share Tweet Reddit Flipboard Email
TEL AVIV, Israel -- The Israeli military confirmed Wednesday it carried
out the 2007 airstrike in Syria that destroyed what was believed to be a
nuclear reactor, lifting the veil of secrecy over one of its most daring
and mysterious operations in recent memory.
Although Israel was widely believed to have been behind the Sept. 6,
2007, airstrike, it has never before commented publicly on it.
In a lengthy release, the military revealed that eight F-15 fighter jets
carried out the top-secret airstrikes against the facility in the Deir
el-Zour region, about 300 miles northeast of Damascus, destroying a site
that had been in development for years and was scheduled to go into
operation at the end of that year.
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Israel's involvement has been one of its most closely held secrets, and
it was not immediately clear why Israel decided to go public now. The
military would not comment on its reasoning, but the move could be
related to the upcoming memoir of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who
ordered the strike and has hinted about it for years, or it could be
meant as a warning to archenemy Iran, which is active in Syria.
"The motivation of our enemies has grown in recent years, but so too the
might of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces)," Defense Minister Avigdor
Lieberman said Wednesday. "Everyone in the Middle East would do well to
internalize this equation."
Israel and Syria have always been bitter enemies. Throughout Syria's
seven-year civil war, Israel has carried out well over 100 airstrikes,
most believed to have been aimed at suspected weapons shipments destined
for the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group. Both Iran and Hezbollah
are allied with Syrian President Bashar Assad.
At the time of the 2007 strike, Syria accused Israel of invading its
airspace, but gave no further details about the target.
The pre-mission briefing, made public Wednesday, stated that the
operation should not be attributed to Israel so as to minimize the
potential for an all-out war.
The strike was reminiscent of an Israeli attack in 1981 against a
reactor being built in Iraq. The strike was later credited with
preventing Saddam Hussein from acquiring weapons of mass destruction
that could have been used in the Gulf War a decade later.
"The message from the 2007 attack on the reactor is that Israel will not
tolerate construction that can pose an existential threat," military
chief Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said in Wednesday's statement. "This was
the message in 1981, this is the message in 2007 and this is the future
message to our enemies."
Eisenkot, who at the time commanded Israel's northern front along the
Lebanese and Syrian borders, said it marked Israel's most comprehensive
attack in Syria since the 1973 Mideast war, and that everyone involved
knew it could spark a new one. He said only a handful of top commanders
were aware of the plans for Operation "Outside The Box."
The military said the F-15s took off from two bases in southern Israel
at 10:30 p.m. on Sept. 5 and returned four hours later. Wednesday's
announcement also indicated the Syrian reactor was much closer to
completion than previously reported.
From Israel's perspective, the strike was an astounding success since
it not only destroyed the site, but prevented further escalation and
strengthened its deterrence in the region.
Air force commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin said the current turmoil in
Syria has further vindicated the strike, particularly since the reactor
was in an area later captured by Islamic State militants.
"Imagine what situation we would be in today if there was a nuclear
reactor in Syria," Norkin said. "Israel's decision to destroy the
reactor is one of the most important decisions taken here in the last 70
years."
Uzi Rabi, an expert on Iran at Tel Aviv University, said Israel's
surprising confirmation might be meant as a "warning sign" to Iran as it
expands its military footprint in Syria. Israel has warned against the
establishment of a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria,
particularly in areas close to Israel.
Last month, Israel shot down an Iranian drone that entered its airspace,
triggering a clash in which an Israeli warplane crashed after being
struck by Syrian anti-aircraft fire. Israel responded by bombing Syrian
anti-aircraft batteries.
The military said it began obtaining information regarding foreign
experts helping Syria develop the Deir el-Zour site in late 2004. Later
it discovered that North Korea was helping Syria build a reactor to
manufacture plutonium.
In his memoir, "Decision Points," former President George W. Bush said
Israel first asked the U.S. to bomb the site and then carried out an
attack itself when Washington declined.
The strike came about a year after Israel's inconclusive war against
Hezbollah, in which the Lebanese guerrillas battled Israel's army to a
stalemate. The poor performance raised questions about Israel's
deterrent capabilities.
"Prime Minister Olmert's execution of the strike made up for the
confidence I had lost in the Israelis during the Lebanon war," Bush
wrote, adding that the Israeli leader rejected a suggestion to go public
with the operation.
"Olmert told me he wanted total secrecy. He wanted to avoid anything
that might back Syria into a corner and force Assad to retaliate. This
was his operation, and I felt an obligation to respect his wishes," Bush
wrote.
Olmert has skirted around the issue, and military censors, for years,
repeatedly saying that according to foreign sources Israel had been
involved. After Bush's account was published in 2010, Olmert said: "I
don't want (to), and I can't deny it."
Olmert, who was prime minister from 2006 until 2009 and was recently
released from prison after serving time for corruption, is expected to
delve more deeply into the issue in his upcoming book. The disclosure
looks to help rehabilitate at least part of Olmert's tarnished image
while damaging the legacy of his longtime rival, then-Defense Minister
Ehud Barak, who was reportedly hesitant to strike in Syria.
© 2018 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not
be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-military-confirms-it-hit-syrian-nuclear-site-in-2007/
It would take time for Syria to build up several nuclear weapons plus they
need a delivery system.
A Syria with nuclear weapons and a civil war is an interesting POD.
Perhaps a more feasible option is Syria buying ready-made nukes from North Korea.
SolomonW
2018-03-22 14:14:43 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dean
Post by SolomonW
Post by a425couple
What if Syria had been allowed to develop nukes?
March 21, 2018, 8:15 AM
Israeli military confirms it hit Syrian nuclear site in 2007
A combination image shows screen grabs taken from video material
released on March 21, 2018 which the Israeli military describes as an
Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site near Deir
al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Share Tweet Reddit Flipboard Email
TEL AVIV, Israel -- The Israeli military confirmed Wednesday it carried
out the 2007 airstrike in Syria that destroyed what was believed to be a
nuclear reactor, lifting the veil of secrecy over one of its most daring
and mysterious operations in recent memory.
Although Israel was widely believed to have been behind the Sept. 6,
2007, airstrike, it has never before commented publicly on it.
In a lengthy release, the military revealed that eight F-15 fighter jets
carried out the top-secret airstrikes against the facility in the Deir
el-Zour region, about 300 miles northeast of Damascus, destroying a site
that had been in development for years and was scheduled to go into
operation at the end of that year.
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Israel's involvement has been one of its most closely held secrets, and
it was not immediately clear why Israel decided to go public now. The
military would not comment on its reasoning, but the move could be
related to the upcoming memoir of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who
ordered the strike and has hinted about it for years, or it could be
meant as a warning to archenemy Iran, which is active in Syria.
"The motivation of our enemies has grown in recent years, but so too the
might of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces)," Defense Minister Avigdor
Lieberman said Wednesday. "Everyone in the Middle East would do well to
internalize this equation."
Israel and Syria have always been bitter enemies. Throughout Syria's
seven-year civil war, Israel has carried out well over 100 airstrikes,
most believed to have been aimed at suspected weapons shipments destined
for the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group. Both Iran and Hezbollah
are allied with Syrian President Bashar Assad.
At the time of the 2007 strike, Syria accused Israel of invading its
airspace, but gave no further details about the target.
The pre-mission briefing, made public Wednesday, stated that the
operation should not be attributed to Israel so as to minimize the
potential for an all-out war.
The strike was reminiscent of an Israeli attack in 1981 against a
reactor being built in Iraq. The strike was later credited with
preventing Saddam Hussein from acquiring weapons of mass destruction
that could have been used in the Gulf War a decade later.
"The message from the 2007 attack on the reactor is that Israel will not
tolerate construction that can pose an existential threat," military
chief Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said in Wednesday's statement. "This was
the message in 1981, this is the message in 2007 and this is the future
message to our enemies."
Eisenkot, who at the time commanded Israel's northern front along the
Lebanese and Syrian borders, said it marked Israel's most comprehensive
attack in Syria since the 1973 Mideast war, and that everyone involved
knew it could spark a new one. He said only a handful of top commanders
were aware of the plans for Operation "Outside The Box."
The military said the F-15s took off from two bases in southern Israel
at 10:30 p.m. on Sept. 5 and returned four hours later. Wednesday's
announcement also indicated the Syrian reactor was much closer to
completion than previously reported.
From Israel's perspective, the strike was an astounding success since
it not only destroyed the site, but prevented further escalation and
strengthened its deterrence in the region.
Air force commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin said the current turmoil in
Syria has further vindicated the strike, particularly since the reactor
was in an area later captured by Islamic State militants.
"Imagine what situation we would be in today if there was a nuclear
reactor in Syria," Norkin said. "Israel's decision to destroy the
reactor is one of the most important decisions taken here in the last 70
years."
Uzi Rabi, an expert on Iran at Tel Aviv University, said Israel's
surprising confirmation might be meant as a "warning sign" to Iran as it
expands its military footprint in Syria. Israel has warned against the
establishment of a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria,
particularly in areas close to Israel.
Last month, Israel shot down an Iranian drone that entered its airspace,
triggering a clash in which an Israeli warplane crashed after being
struck by Syrian anti-aircraft fire. Israel responded by bombing Syrian
anti-aircraft batteries.
The military said it began obtaining information regarding foreign
experts helping Syria develop the Deir el-Zour site in late 2004. Later
it discovered that North Korea was helping Syria build a reactor to
manufacture plutonium.
In his memoir, "Decision Points," former President George W. Bush said
Israel first asked the U.S. to bomb the site and then carried out an
attack itself when Washington declined.
The strike came about a year after Israel's inconclusive war against
Hezbollah, in which the Lebanese guerrillas battled Israel's army to a
stalemate. The poor performance raised questions about Israel's
deterrent capabilities.
"Prime Minister Olmert's execution of the strike made up for the
confidence I had lost in the Israelis during the Lebanon war," Bush
wrote, adding that the Israeli leader rejected a suggestion to go public
with the operation.
"Olmert told me he wanted total secrecy. He wanted to avoid anything
that might back Syria into a corner and force Assad to retaliate. This
was his operation, and I felt an obligation to respect his wishes," Bush
wrote.
Olmert has skirted around the issue, and military censors, for years,
repeatedly saying that according to foreign sources Israel had been
involved. After Bush's account was published in 2010, Olmert said: "I
don't want (to), and I can't deny it."
Olmert, who was prime minister from 2006 until 2009 and was recently
released from prison after serving time for corruption, is expected to
delve more deeply into the issue in his upcoming book. The disclosure
looks to help rehabilitate at least part of Olmert's tarnished image
while damaging the legacy of his longtime rival, then-Defense Minister
Ehud Barak, who was reportedly hesitant to strike in Syria.
© 2018 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not
be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-military-confirms-it-hit-syrian-nuclear-site-in-2007/
It would take time for Syria to build up several nuclear weapons plus they
need a delivery system.
A Syria with nuclear weapons and a civil war is an interesting POD.
Perhaps a more feasible option is Syria buying ready-made nukes from North Korea.
Well we would have to change the dates, this is in Sep 2007.

North Korea first nuclear device was in Oct 2006. a device is not a weapon.
It closed down its main reactor in Feb 2007 and started it up in April
2009. Experts are not sure today if North Korea has nuclear nukes.
Insane Ranter
2018-03-25 22:16:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by SolomonW
It would take time for Syria to build up several nuclear weapons plus they
need a delivery system.
A Syria with nuclear weapons and a civil war is an interesting POD.
A truck would work in this instance...even a guy with a small "device" in a backpack would work.

You are going to want to avoid two things. Nuking Jerusalem and really not kill a large number of Palestinians.

You are also going to be making a statement.. Which either way you starting a war with Israel.
a425couple
2018-03-30 17:09:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Insane Ranter
Post by SolomonW
It would take time for Syria to build up several nuclear weapons plus they
need a delivery system.
A Syria with nuclear weapons and a civil war is an interesting POD.
A truck would work in this instance...even a guy with a small "device" in a backpack would work.
You are going to want to avoid two things. Nuking Jerusalem and really not kill a large number of Palestinians.
I am not sure that the last 8 words of above,
are that much a priority.

Famous quote:
"You can kill ten of our men for every one we kill of yours.
But even at those odds, you will lose and we will win."
Ho Chi Minh
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/ho_chi_minh
t***@go.com
2018-03-23 20:20:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by a425couple
What if Syria had been allowed to develop nukes?
March 21, 2018, 8:15 AM
Israeli military confirms it hit Syrian nuclear site in 2007
A combination image shows screen grabs taken from video material
released on March 21, 2018 which the Israeli military describes as an
Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site near Deir
al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Share Tweet Reddit Flipboard Email
TEL AVIV, Israel -- The Israeli military confirmed Wednesday it carried
out the 2007 airstrike in Syria that destroyed what was believed to be a
nuclear reactor, lifting the veil of secrecy over one of its most daring
and mysterious operations in recent memory.
Although Israel was widely believed to have been behind the Sept. 6,
2007, airstrike, it has never before commented publicly on it.
In a lengthy release, the military revealed that eight F-15 fighter jets
carried out the top-secret airstrikes against the facility in the Deir
el-Zour region, about 300 miles northeast of Damascus, destroying a site
that had been in development for years and was scheduled to go into
operation at the end of that year.
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor
A still frame taken from video material released on March 21, 2018 shows
a combination image of what the Israeli military describes is before and
after an Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site
near Deir al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007. IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Israel's involvement has been one of its most closely held secrets, and
it was not immediately clear why Israel decided to go public now. The
military would not comment on its reasoning, but the move could be
related to the upcoming memoir of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who
ordered the strike and has hinted about it for years, or it could be
meant as a warning to archenemy Iran, which is active in Syria.
"The motivation of our enemies has grown in recent years, but so too the
might of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces)," Defense Minister Avigdor
Lieberman said Wednesday. "Everyone in the Middle East would do well to
internalize this equation."
Israel and Syria have always been bitter enemies. Throughout Syria's
seven-year civil war, Israel has carried out well over 100 airstrikes,
most believed to have been aimed at suspected weapons shipments destined
for the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group. Both Iran and Hezbollah
are allied with Syrian President Bashar Assad.
At the time of the 2007 strike, Syria accused Israel of invading its
airspace, but gave no further details about the target.
The pre-mission briefing, made public Wednesday, stated that the
operation should not be attributed to Israel so as to minimize the
potential for an all-out war.
The strike was reminiscent of an Israeli attack in 1981 against a
reactor being built in Iraq. The strike was later credited with
preventing Saddam Hussein from acquiring weapons of mass destruction
that could have been used in the Gulf War a decade later.
"The message from the 2007 attack on the reactor is that Israel will not
tolerate construction that can pose an existential threat," military
chief Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said in Wednesday's statement. "This was
the message in 1981, this is the message in 2007 and this is the future
message to our enemies."
Eisenkot, who at the time commanded Israel's northern front along the
Lebanese and Syrian borders, said it marked Israel's most comprehensive
attack in Syria since the 1973 Mideast war, and that everyone involved
knew it could spark a new one. He said only a handful of top commanders
were aware of the plans for Operation "Outside The Box."
The military said the F-15s took off from two bases in southern Israel
at 10:30 p.m. on Sept. 5 and returned four hours later. Wednesday's
announcement also indicated the Syrian reactor was much closer to
completion than previously reported.
From Israel's perspective, the strike was an astounding success since
it not only destroyed the site, but prevented further escalation and
strengthened its deterrence in the region.
Air force commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin said the current turmoil in
Syria has further vindicated the strike, particularly since the reactor
was in an area later captured by Islamic State militants.
"Imagine what situation we would be in today if there was a nuclear
reactor in Syria," Norkin said. "Israel's decision to destroy the
reactor is one of the most important decisions taken here in the last 70
years."
Uzi Rabi, an expert on Iran at Tel Aviv University, said Israel's
surprising confirmation might be meant as a "warning sign" to Iran as it
expands its military footprint in Syria. Israel has warned against the
establishment of a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria,
particularly in areas close to Israel.
Last month, Israel shot down an Iranian drone that entered its airspace,
triggering a clash in which an Israeli warplane crashed after being
struck by Syrian anti-aircraft fire. Israel responded by bombing Syrian
anti-aircraft batteries.
The military said it began obtaining information regarding foreign
experts helping Syria develop the Deir el-Zour site in late 2004. Later
it discovered that North Korea was helping Syria build a reactor to
manufacture plutonium.
In his memoir, "Decision Points," former President George W. Bush said
Israel first asked the U.S. to bomb the site and then carried out an
attack itself when Washington declined.
The strike came about a year after Israel's inconclusive war against
Hezbollah, in which the Lebanese guerrillas battled Israel's army to a
stalemate. The poor performance raised questions about Israel's
deterrent capabilities.
"Prime Minister Olmert's execution of the strike made up for the
confidence I had lost in the Israelis during the Lebanon war," Bush
wrote, adding that the Israeli leader rejected a suggestion to go public
with the operation.
"Olmert told me he wanted total secrecy. He wanted to avoid anything
that might back Syria into a corner and force Assad to retaliate. This
was his operation, and I felt an obligation to respect his wishes," Bush
wrote.
Olmert has skirted around the issue, and military censors, for years,
repeatedly saying that according to foreign sources Israel had been
involved. After Bush's account was published in 2010, Olmert said: "I
don't want (to), and I can't deny it."
Olmert, who was prime minister from 2006 until 2009 and was recently
released from prison after serving time for corruption, is expected to
delve more deeply into the issue in his upcoming book. The disclosure
looks to help rehabilitate at least part of Olmert's tarnished image
while damaging the legacy of his longtime rival, then-Defense Minister
Ehud Barak, who was reportedly hesitant to strike in Syria.
© 2018 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not
be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israeli-military-confirms-it-hit-syrian-nuclear-site-in-2007/
I am thinking there would be a greater likelihood of U.S.
intervention in the Syrian Civil War in this scenario.

It is feasible that the Syrian government would use them
on rebel positions at some point in the war, and then claim
that they went off because the rebel groups had gotten hold
of them, and that also they would decide that they wanted to
get rid of them in a similar manner to chemical weapons in
our time line.

There is also the possibility that some rebel groups or
terrorists would get hold of them. It would vary a lot
with respect to the different groups that got them, the
circumstances, and the nature of the weapons.

There may be various groups or individuals that might have
a different propensity to use than others.

I am thinking there is nothing in the war crime conventions
that says that a government can not execute its own people
based upon geographic location or random chance. Ethnicity
however is explicitly proscribed so it can not have to do
with anything concerning Alawites or Kurds. If nukes were
used above ground it could violate the Partial Test Ban treaty.
I am of the mind that it would not be perceived as a legitimate
activity even if it were not technically a war crime (and
maybe it might involve Alawites or Kurds anyway).

My guess is that there would be more intervention in the
Syrian Civil War to keep them out of the hands of groups
that would want to ultimately either drive them
to Tel Aviv or put them on container ships to deploy at
some port somewhere else in the world.

There is also the possibility that they might be sold
to some other government.

This would generally be a great unknown, so likely would
lead to a greater propensity for more intervention in
comparison with our time line.
a425couple
2018-03-30 16:57:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by a425couple
What if Syria had been allowed to develop nukes?
 March 21, 2018, 8:15 AM
Israeli military confirms it hit Syrian nuclear site in 2007
A combination image shows screen grabs taken from video material
released on March 21, 2018 which the Israeli military describes as an
Israeli air strike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site near Deir
al-Zor on Sept 6, 2007.  IDF HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
Elsewhere, another opinion and citation was posted
http://warisboring.com/syrias-nuclear-weapons-program-was-always-a-doomed-idea/

Yongbyon Nuclear Center produces about plutonium at a rate of
about six kg per annum that is enough for one atomic bomb a year.
By 2011, assuming that Syria has sufficient material for at
least four atomic bombs at that rate.

Syria has a large economy then North Korea plus it had North
Korean help.

I think it's quite reasonable to assume that in this scenario
that Syria would have a nuclear device.

I doubt that the world would have dared to support the armed
movement that came from the democratic protests in Syria.
Therefore, no civil war and this article's analysis breaks down.
The Horny Goat
2018-03-31 15:03:12 UTC
Permalink
On Fri, 30 Mar 2018 09:57:48 -0700, a425couple
Post by a425couple
Post by a425couple
What if Syria had been allowed to develop nukes?
http://warisboring.com/syrias-nuclear-weapons-program-was-always-a-doomed-idea/
Yongbyon Nuclear Center produces about plutonium at a rate of
about six kg per annum that is enough for one atomic bomb a year.
By 2011, assuming that Syria has sufficient material for at
least four atomic bombs at that rate.
Syria has a large economy then North Korea plus it had North
Korean help.
I think it's quite reasonable to assume that in this scenario
that Syria would have a nuclear device.
I doubt that the world would have dared to support the armed
movement that came from the democratic protests in Syria.
Therefore, no civil war and this article's analysis breaks down.
Stupid question but is there any reason to believe Israel would strike
Osirak in Iraq while not striking a similar target in Syria which
after all is much closer? (And has a much longer history of fighting
their air force)

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