December 12, 1941 - ASB moves Malaya-Singapore, Philippines, Guam and Wake

[Rob]

On December 12th, an ASB moves British Malaya and Singapore a few hundred miles west of its OTL location, due south of India and Ceylon.

The ASB also moves the Philippines just east of the international dateline. It puts them south underneath Midway Island and the rest of the Hawaiian chain. And Guam and Wake keep their relative distance east from the Philippines, so they end up southeast of Hawaii.

Attacks have begun and everybody has declared war at this point.

Here is how the map is changed:

Loading Image...

The Japanese have something like 2,500 infantry in northern Malaya and may have a few aircraft set up on improvised airfields, but most of their airpower is outside of Malaya (Indochina) and the great majority of troops and bicycles ultimately committed are not in Malaya but rather at sea, in Thailand or French Indochina.

In the Philippines the Japanese troops are only present in the islands of the Bashi channel, north of Luzon. Some additional ships are likely in the area and planes possibly overflying and raiding Luzon.

What ensues from there on both the Axis and Allied sides?

A helpful timeline for a reference of wartime events is there:
http://www.wtj.com/articles/pacific_summary/timeline.htm

How does the war change?

a) The Philippines get conquered in the ATL
b) The Philippines get invaded but are defended successfully in the ATL
c) The Philippines are not in invaded in the ATL
d) Malaya is conquered in the ATL
e) Malaya is not conquered in the ATL
f) the Japanese take all New Guinea for a time in the ATL
g) the Japanese never take all New Guinea in the ATL

[Phil McGregor]

Post by Rob
How does the war change?
a) The Philippines get conquered in the ATL
b) The Philippines get invaded but are defended successfully in the ATL
c) The Philippines are not in invaded in the ATL
d) Malaya is conquered in the ATL
e) Malaya is not conquered in the ATL
f) the Japanese take all New Guinea for a time in the ATL
g) the Japanese never take all New Guinea in the ATL

The key element that applies, after the massive confusion and panic that results on all sides due to the ASB intervention ('What will they
do next?') is that of shipping ...

The Japanese were short of it by a *lot* ... they were capable of moving and supplying, IIRC, only around 12 divisions to and through the
areas in question, and *that* required severe cutbacks in activity in China.

What the move has done is to make the voyage time involved in moving and supplying troops much more difficult for the Japanese. I would
hazard a guess that, assuming equal amounts of panic and slowed responses on both the Jap and Allied sides, they would be be completely
incapable of taking all three of the PI, Malaya/Borneo and the NEI. I'd go further and say it would be extremely unlikely they'd be able to
take any of them ... you've moved them closer to friendly bases, further from Jap bases, and the panic that would result would throw the Jap
planning into disarray long enough for the allies to get enough of an act together to reinforce and circumvent later Jap moves.

Which means the Japs run out of oil (well, actually, are so short of oil they can't run their navy, air forces *and* industry and
agriculture) in late 42 or early 43 and the allies hould be able to invade the Home Islands by late 43 or early 44, depending on how much in
the way of additional resources they put into the PTO ... if they skimp as much as they did historically, then look at an invasion of the
Home Islands around mid to late 44.

Phil

Author, Space Opera (FGU); RBB #1 (FASA); Road to Armageddon;
Farm, Forge and Steam; Orbis Mundi; Displaced (PGD)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Email: ***@tpg.com.au

[jerry kraus]

Post by Rob
On December 12th, an ASB moves British Malaya and Singapore a few hundred miles west of its OTL location, due south of India and Ceylon.
The ASB also moves the Philippines just east of the international dateline. It puts them south underneath Midway Island and the rest of the Hawaiian chain. And Guam and Wake keep their relative distance east from the Philippines, so they end up southeast of Hawaii.
Attacks have begun and everybody has declared war at this point.
https://i.imgur.com/GHjnWoK.gif
The Japanese have something like 2,500 infantry in northern Malaya and may have a few aircraft set up on improvised airfields, but most of their airpower is outside of Malaya (Indochina) and the great majority of troops and bicycles ultimately committed are not in Malaya but rather at sea, in Thailand or French Indochina.
In the Philippines the Japanese troops are only present in the islands of the Bashi channel, north of Luzon. Some additional ships are likely in the area and planes possibly overflying and raiding Luzon.
What ensues from there on both the Axis and Allied sides?
http://www.wtj.com/articles/pacific_summary/timeline.htm
How does the war change?
a) The Philippines get conquered in the ATL
b) The Philippines get invaded but are defended successfully in the ATL
c) The Philippines are not in invaded in the ATL
d) Malaya is conquered in the ATL
e) Malaya is not conquered in the ATL
f) the Japanese take all New Guinea for a time in the ATL
g) the Japanese never take all New Guinea in the ATL

All world powers will get together to try to do something about those irritating alien space bats. That's first priority, obviously.

[Rich Rostrom]

Post by Rob
What ensues from there on both the Axis and Allied sides?
http://www.wtj.com/articles/pacific_summary/timeline.htm
How does the war change?

This assumes that no one in any country notices
these enormous miraculous events; i.e. the ASB
uses the Orbital Mind Control Lasers to make them
behave "normally", just with these changes in
place.

Post by Rob
a) The Philippines get conquered in the ATL
b) The Philippines get invaded but are defended successfully in the ATL
c) The Philippines are not in invaded in the ATL

Japan's invasion of the Phiolippines is cancelled,
as it is not necessary to secure the LOC to the
East Indies, and it is not practical, with the
Philippines now far away from Japanese bases and
easily reinforced by the US.

Post by Rob
d) Malaya is conquered in the ATL
e) Malaya is not conquered in the ATL

The handful of Japanese in Malaya are overwhelmed
by the garrison, which outnumbers them 60-1. Japan
does not try to send any sort of invading force that
far away. Japan does occupy Sarawak and Brunei, and
the Dutch East Indies.

Post by Rob
f) the Japanese take all New Guinea for a time in the ATL
g) the Japanese never take all New Guinea in the ATL

OT1H, the forces Japan employed in Malaya and the
Philippines are now available for other campaigns,
including obviously New Guinea. OTOH, the Japanese
must prepare to defend the Marshall and Gilbert
Islands against American attack from the nearby
Philippines, which would take up some of those
forces.

The US campaign in the Pacific will probably
begin with such attacks in 1942, commanded by

Also, Japan could move immediately against Burma;
but Britain could transfer forces from Malaya to
Burma.

One important change to the larger war: the Allies
retain Malaya's supplies of rubber and tin.