David Tenner
2005-02-22 19:05:52 UTC
In another thread, we have discussed the "Silent Generation." In OTL,
unlike that thread (with its presidents Hunter S. Thompson and Bobby
Darin...) the Silents have had no president of the United States and it
now looks like they never will. It seems that a key event here was the
American electorate's decision to skip a generation in 1992, going
directly from the GI or "Greatest" Generation (GHW Bush) to the Baby
Boomers (Clinton). In 1996 it again faced a Boomer/GI choice and again
the Boomer won; by 2000 it was facing a choice between two Boomers. (And
2004? By *some* definitions--those which treat people born as late as
1945 as Silents--Kerry was a Silent. But I think that Vietnam and the
antiwar movement make him a Boomer.)
Who were some of the Silents most likely to have become president? If,
with Strauss and Howe in *Generations*, you date the Silents as those born
between 1925 and 1942, the most plausible candidates seem to me:
Howard Baker (R)--b. Nov. 15, 1925--but the fact that he served in the
Navy during World War II makes me think Strauss and Howe perhaps begin the
Silent years too early and that something like 1927 might be a better
starting point.
Walter Mondale (D)--b. Jan. 5, 1928
James Baker (R)--b. April 28, 1930
Edward Kennedy (D)--b. Feb. 22, 1932
Mario Cuomo (D)--b. June 15, 1932
Pete Wilson (R)--b. August 23, 1933
Michael Dukakis (D)--b. Nov. 3, 1933
Jack Kemp (R)--b. July 13, 1935
Bob Graham (D)--b. Nov. 9, 1936
Gary Hart (D)--b. Nov. 28, 1936
Jerry Brown (D)--b. April 7, 1938
Pat Buchanan (R)--b. Nov. 2, 1938 (admittedly a long shot, even if he had
won the GOP nomination in 1996, which was itself unlikely)
Lamar Alexander (R)--b. July 3, 1940
Dick Gephardt (D)--b. Jan. 31, 1941
Paul Tsongas (D)--b. Feb. 14, 1941
Joseph Lieberman (D)--b. Feb. 24, 1942
Phil Gramm (R)--b. July 8, 1942
Obviously, there are individual reasons for each of these candidates not
making it. But perhaps most important here were the vice-presidential
decisions of Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992. By choosing
GHW Bush and Al Gore, they made these men their presumptive successors for
the party nomination eight years later. Had Reagan for example chosen
Jack Kemp in 1980, or Clinton Bob Graham in 1992, there would be a good
chance of a Silent Generation president in 1988 or 2000.
Of course, one problem with a lot of the Silent Generation candidates is
that they were Democrats running in years like 1980 and 1984 and 1988 that
were very likely to be Republican. Conversely, in 1996 it is conceivable
that a Silent like Lamar Alexander (rather than the final Greatest
Generation candidate, Bob Dole) could have won the GOP nomination, but
unlikely that he would have beaten Clinton.
Any thoughts? Any candidates I have missed? (Bill Bradley and Bob
Kerrey, both born in 1943, are, like John Kerry, in the Silent/Boomer
borderline territory.)
unlike that thread (with its presidents Hunter S. Thompson and Bobby
Darin...) the Silents have had no president of the United States and it
now looks like they never will. It seems that a key event here was the
American electorate's decision to skip a generation in 1992, going
directly from the GI or "Greatest" Generation (GHW Bush) to the Baby
Boomers (Clinton). In 1996 it again faced a Boomer/GI choice and again
the Boomer won; by 2000 it was facing a choice between two Boomers. (And
2004? By *some* definitions--those which treat people born as late as
1945 as Silents--Kerry was a Silent. But I think that Vietnam and the
antiwar movement make him a Boomer.)
Who were some of the Silents most likely to have become president? If,
with Strauss and Howe in *Generations*, you date the Silents as those born
between 1925 and 1942, the most plausible candidates seem to me:
Howard Baker (R)--b. Nov. 15, 1925--but the fact that he served in the
Navy during World War II makes me think Strauss and Howe perhaps begin the
Silent years too early and that something like 1927 might be a better
starting point.
Walter Mondale (D)--b. Jan. 5, 1928
James Baker (R)--b. April 28, 1930
Edward Kennedy (D)--b. Feb. 22, 1932
Mario Cuomo (D)--b. June 15, 1932
Pete Wilson (R)--b. August 23, 1933
Michael Dukakis (D)--b. Nov. 3, 1933
Jack Kemp (R)--b. July 13, 1935
Bob Graham (D)--b. Nov. 9, 1936
Gary Hart (D)--b. Nov. 28, 1936
Jerry Brown (D)--b. April 7, 1938
Pat Buchanan (R)--b. Nov. 2, 1938 (admittedly a long shot, even if he had
won the GOP nomination in 1996, which was itself unlikely)
Lamar Alexander (R)--b. July 3, 1940
Dick Gephardt (D)--b. Jan. 31, 1941
Paul Tsongas (D)--b. Feb. 14, 1941
Joseph Lieberman (D)--b. Feb. 24, 1942
Phil Gramm (R)--b. July 8, 1942
Obviously, there are individual reasons for each of these candidates not
making it. But perhaps most important here were the vice-presidential
decisions of Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992. By choosing
GHW Bush and Al Gore, they made these men their presumptive successors for
the party nomination eight years later. Had Reagan for example chosen
Jack Kemp in 1980, or Clinton Bob Graham in 1992, there would be a good
chance of a Silent Generation president in 1988 or 2000.
Of course, one problem with a lot of the Silent Generation candidates is
that they were Democrats running in years like 1980 and 1984 and 1988 that
were very likely to be Republican. Conversely, in 1996 it is conceivable
that a Silent like Lamar Alexander (rather than the final Greatest
Generation candidate, Bob Dole) could have won the GOP nomination, but
unlikely that he would have beaten Clinton.
Any thoughts? Any candidates I have missed? (Bill Bradley and Bob
Kerrey, both born in 1943, are, like John Kerry, in the Silent/Boomer
borderline territory.)
--
David Tenner
***@ameritech.net
David Tenner
***@ameritech.net