"What about "Russian-Lithuanian Commonwealth" with an elective monarchy?"

[Alex Milman]

Idea belongs to Rich.

PoD:

Unlike OTL in 1399 Witold, the Grand Duke of Lithuania, wins a major battle at Vorskla River against the forces of the Golden Horde. Edigu (strong man behind the throne and the last great Mongolian general) killed in the battle and so is Khan Temur Qutlugh.

Consequences:

Unlike OTL, where Poland used Witold's weakened position after defeat at Vorskla, Witold's hold on the Duchy is strengthened and so is his prestige and military strength.

Throne of the Golden Horde is returned to Khan Tokhtamysh who acknowledges himself Witold's vassal and transfers the overlordship over the Great Princedom of Moscow to Witold (conditions of OTL agreement).

Great Princedom of Moscow is ruled by Vasily I who is married to Witold's only daughter, Sophia. In 1415 their son, future Vasily II, is born and in 1425 Vasily I died. Sophia is an acting regent (as in OTL). By that time in OTL Witold was officially recognized as "protector" of Moscow but in ATL he is also its official overlord (after this right is ceded by the Golden Horde).

Unlike OTL:

1. Witold manages to get rid of his brother and cousins (it is a big surprise that he did not).

2. Witold manages to avoid a major war with the Teutonic Order triggered by his incitement of the Samogitian rebellion.

3. There is no Union of Horodło with Poland in 1413 which provided a joint discussion of the important issues by Polish and Lithuanian sejms and did not give the Orthodox nobility the same rights as to the Catholics (which eventually resulted in a transfer of Ukraine to Poland).

In January 1429, at the Congress of Lutsk Vytautas received the title of King of Lithuania with the backing of Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor. Unlike the OTL, the imperial envoys who were transporting the crown were NOT stopped by Polish magnates. Witold and Lithuanian nobility are declaring a complete independence from Poland.

Before his death in 1430 he manages to persuade the Lithuanian nobility to elect his grandson as the future King of Lithuania.
There are no credible alternative candidates and child-king is OK by the local nobility.

In the future, while being formally elective, position of the King of Lithuania is going to the princes of Moscow who belong to the same Rurikid/Keistutis dynasty until it is being extinct with the death of Fedor I in 1598 at which point the elections are held BOTH in Lithuania and Tsardom of Moscow (Boris Godunov as an elected monarch).

Religion and culture:

Orthodoxy becomes a prevailing religion in the union with Catholics being a very strong minority (in Lithuania) with, later, the Protestants being added to the picture.

"Russian" (old version of Belorussian) language had been already used in Lithuanian court as an official language prior to the conversion to Catholicism (there was no written Lithuanian language) so no major problem there.

While at least some Polish cultural influence is probably inevitable, there is a strong Russian cultural influence.

Political and military impact:

Muscovite-Lithuanian state is a biggest regional state and, with the Golden Horde being officially its vassal, it dominates region from (almost) Baltic coast to the Western Siberia.

Militarily it is still ill-equipped for the war against the Western neighbors (no heavy cavalry) but can be an unpleasant opponent due to its ability to raid and destroy enemy's territory.

Control over the Golden Horde _may_ prevent creation of the Crimean Horde(had been ulus of the Golden Horde from 1239 till 1440's) with all OTL problems for its neighbors. It is possible to assume that there could be a relatively peaceful process of incorporation of the Golden Horde into the "union" (among other things there were marriage connections as well).

The open questions are:

1. ATL equivalent of the Livonian War (started in 1558).

2. ATL relations between the Muscovite-Lithuanian Union and the Ottomans (with Crimean Khanate being/not being the Ottoman vassal).

3. Potential changes in the Muscovite-style absolutism and Lithuanian "free for all" (or constitutional if one prefers) style of a government.

4. Chances for union ending up as a single state.

[Rob]

Post by Alex Milman
Idea belongs to Rich.
Unlike OTL in 1399 Witold, the Grand Duke of Lithuania, wins a major battle at Vorskla River against the forces of the Golden Horde. Edigu (strong man behind the throne and the last great Mongolian general) killed in the battle and so is Khan Temur Qutlugh.
Unlike OTL, where Poland used Witold's weakened position after defeat at Vorskla, Witold's hold on the Duchy is strengthened and so is his prestige and military strength.
Throne of the Golden Horde is returned to Khan Tokhtamysh who acknowledges himself Witold's vassal and transfers the overlordship over the Great Princedom of Moscow to Witold (conditions of OTL agreement).
Great Princedom of Moscow is ruled by Vasily I who is married to Witold's only daughter, Sophia. In 1415 their son, future Vasily II, is born and in 1425 Vasily I died. Sophia is an acting regent (as in OTL). By that time in OTL Witold was officially recognized as "protector" of Moscow but in ATL he is also its official overlord (after this right is ceded by the Golden Horde).
1. Witold manages to get rid of his brother and cousins (it is a big surprise that he did not).
2. Witold manages to avoid a major war with the Teutonic Order triggered by his incitement of the Samogitian rebellion.
3. There is no Union of Horodło with Poland in 1413 which provided a joint discussion of the important issues by Polish and Lithuanian sejms and did not give the Orthodox nobility the same rights as to the Catholics (which eventually resulted in a transfer of Ukraine to Poland).
In January 1429, at the Congress of Lutsk Vytautas received the title of King of Lithuania with the backing of Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor. Unlike the OTL, the imperial envoys who were transporting the crown were NOT stopped by Polish magnates. Witold and Lithuanian nobility are declaring a complete independence from Poland.
Before his death in 1430 he manages to persuade the Lithuanian nobility to elect his grandson as the future King of Lithuania.
There are no credible alternative candidates and child-king is OK by the local nobility.
In the future, while being formally elective, position of the King of Lithuania is going to the princes of Moscow who belong to the same Rurikid/Keistutis dynasty until it is being extinct with the death of Fedor I in 1598 at which point the elections are held BOTH in Lithuania and Tsardom of Moscow (Boris Godunov as an elected monarch).
Orthodoxy becomes a prevailing religion in the union with Catholics being a very strong minority (in Lithuania) with, later, the Protestants being added to the picture.
"Russian" (old version of Belorussian) language had been already used in Lithuanian court as an official language prior to the conversion to Catholicism (there was no written Lithuanian language) so no major problem there.
While at least some Polish cultural influence is probably inevitable, there is a strong Russian cultural influence.
Muscovite-Lithuanian state is a biggest regional state and, with the Golden Horde being officially its vassal, it dominates region from (almost) Baltic coast to the Western Siberia.
Militarily it is still ill-equipped for the war against the Western neighbors (no heavy cavalry) but can be an unpleasant opponent due to its ability to raid and destroy enemy's territory.
Control over the Golden Horde _may_ prevent creation of the Crimean Horde(had been ulus of the Golden Horde from 1239 till 1440's) with all OTL problems for its neighbors. It is possible to assume that there could be a relatively peaceful process of incorporation of the Golden Horde into the "union" (among other things there were marriage connections as well).
1. ATL equivalent of the Livonian War (started in 1558).
2. ATL relations between the Muscovite-Lithuanian Union and the Ottomans (with Crimean Khanate being/not being the Ottoman vassal).
3. Potential changes in the Muscovite-style absolutism and Lithuanian "free for all" (or constitutional if one prefers) style of a government.
4. Chances for union ending up as a single state.

What if Russia-Lithuania ends up with a chaotic elective monarchy and veto-vulnerable Senate much like OTL's PLC?

It would be interesting, because despite such internal weaknesses it is just too large to be partitioned or conquered. After about 1500 or 1600 there is nobody very strong immediately to the south and east, so expansion will probably happen no matter what the government.

Weaknesses of the state could lead to it being noncompetitive on the Baltic and Black Sea littorals, losing some ground over time to European countries.

I guess such a system would be best for the nobility and bad for the monarchy. Whether the median muzhik (peasant) would be better or worse off than OTL, I cannot say with any confidence.

[Alex Milman]

Post by Rob

Post by Alex Milman
Idea belongs to Rich.
Unlike OTL in 1399 Witold, the Grand Duke of Lithuania, wins a major battle at Vorskla River against the forces of the Golden Horde. Edigu (strong man behind the throne and the last great Mongolian general) killed in the battle and so is Khan Temur Qutlugh.
Unlike OTL, where Poland used Witold's weakened position after defeat at Vorskla, Witold's hold on the Duchy is strengthened and so is his prestige and military strength.
Throne of the Golden Horde is returned to Khan Tokhtamysh who acknowledges himself Witold's vassal and transfers the overlordship over the Great Princedom of Moscow to Witold (conditions of OTL agreement).
Great Princedom of Moscow is ruled by Vasily I who is married to Witold's only daughter, Sophia. In 1415 their son, future Vasily II, is born and in 1425 Vasily I died. Sophia is an acting regent (as in OTL). By that time in OTL Witold was officially recognized as "protector" of Moscow but in ATL he is also its official overlord (after this right is ceded by the Golden Horde).
1. Witold manages to get rid of his brother and cousins (it is a big surprise that he did not).
2. Witold manages to avoid a major war with the Teutonic Order triggered by his incitement of the Samogitian rebellion.
3. There is no Union of Horodło with Poland in 1413 which provided a joint discussion of the important issues by Polish and Lithuanian sejms and did not give the Orthodox nobility the same rights as to the Catholics (which eventually resulted in a transfer of Ukraine to Poland).
In January 1429, at the Congress of Lutsk Vytautas received the title of King of Lithuania with the backing of Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor. Unlike the OTL, the imperial envoys who were transporting the crown were NOT stopped by Polish magnates. Witold and Lithuanian nobility are declaring a complete independence from Poland.
Before his death in 1430 he manages to persuade the Lithuanian nobility to elect his grandson as the future King of Lithuania.
There are no credible alternative candidates and child-king is OK by the local nobility.
In the future, while being formally elective, position of the King of Lithuania is going to the princes of Moscow who belong to the same Rurikid/Keistutis dynasty until it is being extinct with the death of Fedor I in 1598 at which point the elections are held BOTH in Lithuania and Tsardom of Moscow (Boris Godunov as an elected monarch).
Orthodoxy becomes a prevailing religion in the union with Catholics being a very strong minority (in Lithuania) with, later, the Protestants being added to the picture.
"Russian" (old version of Belorussian) language had been already used in Lithuanian court as an official language prior to the conversion to Catholicism (there was no written Lithuanian language) so no major problem there.
While at least some Polish cultural influence is probably inevitable, there is a strong Russian cultural influence.
Muscovite-Lithuanian state is a biggest regional state and, with the Golden Horde being officially its vassal, it dominates region from (almost) Baltic coast to the Western Siberia.
Militarily it is still ill-equipped for the war against the Western neighbors (no heavy cavalry) but can be an unpleasant opponent due to its ability to raid and destroy enemy's territory.
Control over the Golden Horde _may_ prevent creation of the Crimean Horde(had been ulus of the Golden Horde from 1239 till 1440's) with all OTL problems for its neighbors. It is possible to assume that there could be a relatively peaceful process of incorporation of the Golden Horde into the "union" (among other things there were marriage connections as well).
1. ATL equivalent of the Livonian War (started in 1558).
2. ATL relations between the Muscovite-Lithuanian Union and the Ottomans (with Crimean Khanate being/not being the Ottoman vassal).
3. Potential changes in the Muscovite-style absolutism and Lithuanian "free for all" (or constitutional if one prefers) style of a government.
4. Chances for union ending up as a single state.

What if Russia-Lithuania ends up with a chaotic elective monarchy and veto-vulnerable Senate much like OTL's PLC?

Well, usually dog is wagging the tail and not other way around. In the Polish-Lithuanian union and then the Commonwealth Poland was defining the direction (toward political anarchy) with Lithuania enthusiastically following the trend (not that it had too much of a centralized power from the very beginning but having a legalized anarchy was much better :-)). In the case of this ATL there is a nucleus with a reasonably strong central power (and tendency toward the early absolutism "Asiatic style"). I'd assume that the most likely Muscovite side would go to win in a mid-/long-term: (a)head of the union is going to have Muscovite military in his disposal with no dependency upon the Lithuanian Sejm and (b) with a weakened Polish influence the "Russian" parts of the Grand Duchy (Belorussia and Ukraine) will be gravitating to the Muscovite side by language, general culture and religion. With the greater mobilization abilities and a bigger population the Muscovite side will prevail.

Keep in mind that to a great degree "absolutism" of the Muscovite state was defined by the need to stand up to the danger from the East (the Golden Horde and later the Crimean Khanate) and even in the case of a peaceful incorporation of the Horde into the union absolutist component would be strengthened by the Horde component.

Post by Rob
It would be interesting, because despite such internal weaknesses it is just too large to be partitioned or conquered. After about 1500 or 1600 there is nobody very strong immediately to the south and east, so expansion will probably happen no matter what the government.

Agree. However, this would be more likely if the state has some meaningful power and resources that do not depend upon the immediate interests of its nobility. In OTL the Commonwealth lost Livonia to Sweden just because the Polish/Lithuanian nobility did not see any personal profit in a war; the same goes for Sobiessky's plan to conquer former Ducal Prussia, for continued financing of the Great Ottoman War, Sigismund's plans to conquer Tsardom of Moscow, etc.)

Post by Rob
Weaknesses of the state could lead to it being noncompetitive on the Baltic and Black Sea littorals, losing some ground over time to European countries.

Well, in OTL Tsardom of Moscow lost the Baltic coast to Sweden (the only "European" country nearby) in the early XVII and simply did not have an access to the Black Sea until the reign of Catherine II.

Of course, one must keep in mind that even when the Russians (prior to the XVIII century) had access to the Baltic coast they did not use it as a base for the sailing. In Novgorodian republic the foreign merchants had been doing all sea travel and Novgorodian part was limited to carrying (across the rivers and lake) the loaded cargo by the boats to and from Novgorod.

When the Muscovite state owned Narva the pattern was the same and when it lost ALL the coast to Sweden it was just a matter of a modest tariff paid to Sweden. The treaty also included Swedish right to buy certain amount of the Russian grain at a favorable price so this was a case of the mutually profitable arrangements.

When the Russian Empire DID get Baltic ports things did not change much: even at the time of Catherine II practically all naval trade was conducted by the British merchants.

The Black Sea trade started only by the end of the XVIII and Russian commerce shipping probably even later (French ambassador at Catherine's court remarked that the Russian merchants had neither credit nor enthusiasm for the naval adventures and this was in the late 1780's)

Post by Rob
I guess such a system would be best for the nobility and bad for the monarchy.

No doubts. However, after Peter III issued a law relieving the nobility of a mandatory military service and abolished physical punishments for them, things became just peachy for the Russian OTL nobility. Plus, unlike the impotent Polish monarchs, the Russian rulers had ample resources to provide tangible rewards to their loyal servants (money, jewels and lands with the serfs).

Post by Rob
Whether the median muzhik (peasant) would be better or worse off than OTL, I cannot say with any confidence.

A peasant in the Commonwealth was, AFAIK, completely void of any rights (except for a short period at the very end) and his owner could do to him pretty much what he wanted. At least during the reign of Catherine II the laws limited rights of the owner by forbidding a torture and execution (and some other things, don't remember the whole list).

Anyway, the whole serfdom system was finalized only during the reign of Peter I and prior to his time the peasants had at least some rights (one may say that Peter made all classes equal by turning even nobility into the state's slaves :-)).