AHC: Dewey wins in '44

What it says on the tin.

Graham Truesdale

2018-02-22 23:08:39 UTC

Post by Rob
What it says on the tin.

The most obvious POD is either FDR's death or his decision not to run. If Wallace somehow gets onto the ticket, that might be the least unlikely scenario. Maybe FDR decides that dropping one Vice-President is understandable but that dropping two looks like carelessness/raises issues about his judgment in selecting them. Butterflies then result in FDR's death over the weekend of 4/5 November 1944, so that the Democratic National Committee do not have a chance to meet and select a replacement, and the electorate are faced with Wallace as the only living name on the Democratic ticket.

The Horny Goat

2018-02-23 06:04:52 UTC

On Thu, 22 Feb 2018 15:08:39 -0800 (PST), Graham Truesdale

Post by Rob
What it says on the tin.

For All Time has FDR dying in 1942 - and I always thought Wallace
winning in 1944 in that scenario was rather far-fetched.

Wallace in 1944 was NOT Lincoln in 1864 who used the issue of 'don't
change horses in mid-stream' quite effectively.

Rob

2018-02-24 00:25:39 UTC

Post by The Horny Goat
On Thu, 22 Feb 2018 15:08:39 -0800 (PST), Graham Truesdale

Post by Rob
What it says on the tin.

For All Time has FDR dying in 1942 - and I always thought Wallace
winning in 1944 in that scenario was rather far-fetched.
Wallace in 1944 was NOT Lincoln in 1864 who used the issue of 'don't
change horses in mid-stream' quite effectively.

Did Wallace win in '44, or did the scenario have Taft win?

Or maybe in the scenario Wallace won in 44, and Taft won in 48?

Rob

2018-02-24 00:34:07 UTC

Post by Rob
What it says on the tin.

Actually, might this timing of FDR's death give Dewey a shot, even if it is Truman on the ticket with FDR?

I know Truman did not have the reputational handicaps of Wallace, and many held his Senate Committee in high regard, but wasn't Dewey the more prominent and popular politician?

WolfBear

2018-02-23 00:21:02 UTC

Post by Rob
What it says on the tin.

Have France avoid falling in 1940 and have the Entente win World War II by November 1944. That way, even if he still runs for a third term, FDR won't run for a fourth term and thus pave the way for a Dewey victory in 1944 (Truman was probably helped by his incumbency in 1948 in our TL--a luxury which the Democrats will not have in 1944 in this TL).

The Horny Goat

2018-02-23 06:07:04 UTC

Post by Rob
What it says on the tin.

Would the Operation Market-Garden fantasy scenario (e.g. M-G is a
complete success, Allies across the Rhine in Corps or larger numbers
by 1 Oct 1944 and headed directly for Berlin by 1 Nov 1944) be
sufficient for this scenario?

Graham Truesdale

2018-02-23 23:15:07 UTC

Post by The Horny Goat

Post by Rob
What it says on the tin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Democratic_National_Convention - 19 to 21 July 1944.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Market_Garden - 17–25 September 1944.
So FDR had already been nominated to run for a fourth term before Market Garden started.

Rob

2018-02-24 00:24:20 UTC

Post by The Horny Goat

Post by Rob
What it says on the tin.

But maybe if the VE Day is before election day, FDR gets "Churchill'ed"?

The Horny Goat

2018-02-24 16:14:05 UTC

On Fri, 23 Feb 2018 16:24:20 -0800 (PST), Rob

Post by Rob

Post by The Horny Goat
Would the Operation Market-Garden fantasy scenario (e.g. M-G is a
complete success, Allies across the Rhine in Corps or larger numbers
by 1 Oct 1944 and headed directly for Berlin by 1 Nov 1944) be
sufficient for this scenario?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Democratic_National_Convention - 19 to 21 July 1944.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Market_Garden - 1725 September 1944.
So FDR had already been nominated to run for a fourth term before Market Garden started.

But maybe if the VE Day is before election day, FDR gets "Churchill'ed"?

This is specifically what I was thinking particularly if FDR's health
issues are more acute.

The Horny Goat

2018-02-24 16:13:07 UTC

On Fri, 23 Feb 2018 15:15:07 -0800 (PST), Graham Truesdale

I was thinking something like an American version of Churchill being
seen as the man Britain needed to win the war but NOT the man needed
to 'win the peace' which definitely played a significant factor in the
1945 General Election.

Germany wouldn't necessarily have needed to surrender to bring about
that mindset as long as substantial forces were east of the Rhine and
headed for Berlin - particularly if the Soviets were still stuck on
the Vistula. (Yes I know about Yalta - it's possible a new president
wouldn't feel bound to let the Red Army have Berlin!)

Rich Rostrom

2018-02-24 01:33:12 UTC

No, because the Pacific War is still on, and the
Hitler War is not over. In any case, FDR will
have already decided to run again, and there's
not much chance of him losing - IMO none.

--
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

The Horny Goat

2018-02-24 16:29:54 UTC

On Fri, 23 Feb 2018 19:33:12 -0600, Rich Rostrom

Post by Rich Rostrom

No, because the Pacific War is still on, and the
Hitler War is not over. In any case, FDR will
have already decided to run again, and there's
not much chance of him losing - IMO none.

I suppose you're right - by election day Leyte Gulf would have just
finished and Iwo Jima and Okinawa were still in the future. (I don't
see any reason to believe politics in Washington would have affected
the fleet)

Rob

2018-02-24 00:31:43 UTC

Post by Rob
What it says on the tin.

Hmm- how long can we get WWII to last if France does not fall in 1940. I think consensus would be, the war has to end before the 1944 election.

But is anything vaguely resembling the Japan versus US and western powers war OTL at all possible? Or does this no Fall of France PoD automatically limit Japan to a war in China only, until she tires or the Soviets decide to attack Japan?

Without either the Fall of France, or Pearl Harbor, what plausible excuse could FDR successfully use to declare war on Germany? And would he even want to?

The Horny Goat

2018-02-24 16:17:58 UTC

On Fri, 23 Feb 2018 16:31:43 -0800 (PST), Rob

Post by Rob

Post by Rob
What it says on the tin.

Hmm- how long can we get WWII to last if France does not fall in 1940. I think consensus would be, the war has to end before the 1944 election.
But is anything vaguely resembling the Japan versus US and western powers war OTL at all possible? Or does this no Fall of France PoD automatically limit Japan to a war in China only, until she tires or the Soviets decide to attack Japan?
Without either the Fall of France, or Pearl Harbor, what plausible excuse could FDR successfully use to declare war on Germany? And would he even want to?

What does 'the end of WW2' mean in this context? If there's a 1940
Armistice (something like a Arras pocket where Guderian gets cut off,
Germany loses most of its armor and you get WW1 front lines forming -
with or without a subsequent anti-Nazi coup)

This would mean no fighting in Europe while Japan's war in China
(presumably without Indochina) continues.

And if as you say the Soviets at some point intervene for either a war
against Japan or complete Finnish or Baltic surrender (remember when
in OTL Stalin took the Baltic states) is that a continuation of WW2 or
a whole new war?

s***@yahoo.com

2018-03-19 18:49:42 UTC

Post by Rob
Without either the Fall of France, or Pearl Harbor, what plausible excuse could FDR successfully use to declare war on Germany? And would he even want to?

I'm pretty sure he wanted it. I saw quotes, maybe from 1923 about his feelings on Germany. As for excuses, there is a story of him sending boats in the way of the Japanese invasion fleets, hoping they would be destroyed, giving him a causus-beli.

Nils

t***@gmail.com

2018-03-17 13:25:39 UTC

Post by Rob
What it says on the tin.

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Insane Ranter

2018-03-18 23:04:56 UTC