Post by RobPost by Alex MilmanPost by RobOn May 29th, 1917, the entire territory occupied by Provisional Government Russia, is ISOT'ed back to May 29th, 1905, right at the conclusion of the Battle of Tsushima.
The territory occupied by the Central Powers at that time, principally Poland and Lithuania, does not go back.
If there is supposed to be some sanity, where is that territory going? Neither Germany, not AH are at war with Russia in 1905 and they are not occupying any Russian territory so "does not go back" from what?
You might have inferred that I meant "does not go back" to Russia. Not so, I meant the territories the CP were occupying (and the occupying CP forces) do not go "back in time".
Got it. So, on these territories we have Tsarist regime and Tsarist army, administration, etc.
Post by RobPost by Alex MilmanPost by RobAreas outside of Russia where Russian troops occupied, like parts of Turkey, Persia, Mongolia and the Chinese Eastern Railway Zone of Manchuria, and the Russian soldiers there, also do not go back in time back with Provisional Government Russia.
And what happens to the Russian troops which in 1905 are still out of the Russian territory confronting Japanese?
Since nothing unnatural happened on Manchuria, the 1905 people of all nationalities, including the Russian troops of that day, are there, in bloody combat with the Japanese, although they have been pushed from South Manchuria.
In other words we have something around 350 - 500K troops led by the Tsarist generals with the discipline preserved, no soldiers Soviets, etc.
Post by RobPost by Alex MilmanPost by RobWhat happens to Russia, and to the world, in this scenario?
The troops (those of 1917) suddenly finding out that there is no war and government can start immediate demobilization diffusing most of the situation.
diffusing any war situation, sure- but when they go back to the estates, do they expect to divide them?
You are putting carriage ahead of a horse. :-)
Framework of your scenario creates an interesting situation because there are 2 types of troops: (a) the demoralized armies of the WWI and (b) troops of 1905 with discipline preserved. These troops are loyal to the regime which does not exist anymore but the imperial family is still there.
Surely, the Far East troops are still fighting (actually, in your timeline the intensive fighting is over) it is more or less reasonable to assume that immediately after ISOT the Provisional Government is making some speedy peace arrangements with Japan.
Then, of course, you have more "forks": (a) Provisional Government is recognized by the troops of 1905 (both in Poland etc. and on the Far East) or (b) these troops remain loyal to the old regime. Taking into an account that these troops still preserve a discipline, recognition mostly applies to the leadership.
(a) The troops of 1905 can be used to maintain certain degree of "law and order" and in May of 1917 situation in the army was not quite hopeless, yet. OTOH, keeping in mind almost complete incompetence of the Provisional Government, it is rather hard to expect any meaningful action.
(b) The troops of 1905 are being used to restore Tsarist regime (not necessarily under NII). Keeping in mind general ineptitude of both Kuropatkin and Lynevich, I would not expect them to be able to act as energetic independent leaders.
It is up to you to chose a definite scenario which would allow to define the further developments, including demobilization procedure ("with or without arms"). This, in turn, will define what is going to happen to the land.
BTW, AFAIK, the whole Bolshevik demagoguery regarding "land to the peasants" was to a great degree just as a big BS as "factories to the workers": in too many cases by 1917 the "estates" dwindled to summer residencies with a minimal land (and not necessarily the agricultural land) so the "revolutionary peasants" had been just looting the valuables and enjoying the burning process.
The biggest landowner was Imperial family but I'm not sure if these lands had been intermixed with some peasant lands. In other words, to "divide" these lands the peasants would need to move there.
In Siberia this was not an issue at all due to almost complete absence of the "estates", the same goes for the Cossack regions of Don and Kuban and probably many other areas.
Of course, it would be reasonable for PG (if it possessed some competence) to declare preparations to some kind of a land reform and to use the loyal troops to prevent looting and other disorderly actions.
Post by RobPost by Alex MilmanPost by RobIn Russia, Prince Georgy Lvov is Prime Minister, the Tsar is internal exile, Kerensky is in the Cabinet as War Minister, Lenin is in Petrograd and has published his "April Theses" and Soviets controlled by coalitions of Socialist parties have at least as much power throughout Russia as the Provisional Government does.
The main problem for the Bolsheviks & Co is that army is speedily dispersing which makes the Soldiers' Soviets pretty much meaningless. The main problem for the government is to prevent these soldiers from going home with the rifles.
Well the soldiers' Soviets become meaningless but you still have workers' Soviets,
There were too few workers to make it meaningful power. The only exception was, as in OTL, Union of the railroad workers but it had nothing to do with the Soviets (AFAIK).
In a reality the Bolshevik coup had been carried by the soldiers and sailors with the armed workers being, at best, icing on a cake.
Post by Roband wherever home is, demobilized, they may want to form "veterans Soviets".
They'd want to go home ASAP and if they are demobilized properly (without weapons), they have just a talking power. Also keep in mind that the soldiers of the specific unit would come from the different regions and disperse after the demobilization.
Post by RobAlso, I was not implying the Bolsheviks are placed at an advantage here. I was just listing the factors on the Russian (at least Petrograd) scene. And should we assume Soviets' would just self-dissolve?
Some of them would (as those of the demobilized soldiers) and the rest could be dissolved (preferably by execution) by the troops loyal to the regime.
Post by RobThey were politically and administratively relevant even before the Bolsheviks took them over and staged a coup.
Yes, of course. But they were a byproduct of the general anarchy and government's ineptitude. Of course, your scenario assumes that PG is the same bunch of the nincompoops as in OTL so the most probable scenario is a general mess in which anybody with a reasonably strong backup and brains would eventually take power. You can chose the winner. :-)
Post by RobPost by Alex MilmanPost by RobGood news for Russia - The War is Over, for now. Although they lost their western territory, at least it, and the 1917 German Army occupying it, did not come back.
See above: unless this territory suddenly disappear from the map, it is Russian and there are no foreign armies in it or a dispute over its possession.
Never said it was occupied. Or disappeared from the map. It is 1905 Russian, legally recognized as Russian, but with whatever level of disorder that exited in those parts in the 1905 revolution? How much disorder did Russian Poland, Lithuania and Courland have during the 1905 revolution in OTL?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_in_the_Kingdom_of_Poland_(1905–07)
Of course, there were strikes and other activities but things like that happened all over the empire. It took some time to deal with them but there was no real chance for them to grow into something leading to independence.
What you are seeming missing from the link is presence of 250 - 300K of the Russian troops. The ALT PG has 2 options: (a) to declare Poland as an independent state (and to get rid of the endless problems with the local nationalists) AND to use these 250 - 300K to maintain order in Russia or (b) to use a fraction of these troops to maintain a strict control over situation in Petrograd; probably one or two loyal and well-disciplined divisions would be enough to disarm the "revolutionary" scum in Petrograd and Kronstadt.
For you to get an idea about feasibility of (b), on a day of the Bolshevik coup the "revolutionary soldiers" which took control of the Petropavlovsk fortress in Petrograd had been firing the whole day into the Winter Palace and did not score a single hit. I can't even imagine how drunk one had to be not to hit a target of that size located just across the river (600 - 1,000 meters wide at that point). Then, look at the history of the RCW - the Reds needed something like 5:1 or even 10:1 numeric advantage to deal with the Voluntary Army which, besides the former officers, included noticeable numbers of the civilians and teenagers. The "revolutionary sailors" had been quite "good" in killing their officers but their 1st military exploit against the Germans ("birthday of the Red Army") was rather unimpressive: detachment led by Pavel Dybenko (one of the "revolutionary heroes") got stinky drunk and fled at the sight of the advancing Germans. 30 - 60K of the Czechs proved to be a critically important force on the Eastern Front pf the RCW (not because they were exceptional soldiers but just because they preserved a discipline), etc.
So, if you allow for more competent PG (say, shock of the landing in 1905 produced some positive brain damage in its members) and some mental flexibility among the leadership of the troops in Poland and Far East, the Bolsheviks & Co are crushed, Russia is a republic and everybody lives happily ever after or at least for a while.
Probably at least some of their royal relatives agree to host the imperial family (IIRC, in OTL only Cousin Willy volunteered) and the property issues are somehow resolved.
Post by RobPost by Alex MilmanPost by RobPoland, Lithuania and Courland are their 1905 Russian versions.
So they are not lost after all?
correct
Post by Alex MilmanPost by RobBut there are all sorts of internal constitutional, social, national and economic questions to answer.
Messy scenario.
yes indeed
Post by Alex MilmanPost by Rob````````````What systems of government will Russia settle into over the next few decades?''''''
Isn't it a republic as per your scenario?
Well it is a republic, but what kind?
The Hell is, as always, in the details of scenario that you chose.
Post by RobHow capitalist or how socialist?
A highly representative democratic republic, or a military or strongman regime that just calls itself a Republic?
This is entirely up to you. The problem (in OTL) was in an absence of a military figure with any noticeable political skills. Kornilov could not even organize a coup against PG, Kolchak proved to be a disaster and Denikin did not even try to create a semblance of a government on the territory his army was controlling. Kuropatkin was a good "2nd man" under a charismatic leader and inept army commander, Linevich (commander of the Manchurian Army before and after Kuropatkin) was old and indecisive (when a portion of his troops revolted as part of the Russian Revolution of 1905, he was in no hurry to put down the risings).
Post by RobAre peaceful transfers of power the exception, or the rule?
Earlier Russian history does not give factual material for such a speculation. But in the SU "transfers of power" had been peaceful. The rest is up to you.
Post by RobDoes Russia remain as committed as it was in OTL to the French alliance and its Balkan "interests".
Is this Russia inclined to make an Entente with Britain, and vice versa, or not? Does this Russia give a crap about Bosnia in 1905 or a few years down the line?
There is still a decade until it becomes really relevant and the answer depends upon your choice.
Post by RobPost by Alex MilmanAs for the future, taking into an account that you are not providing any details in your scenario, anything is possible.
Well I think the details are more fleshed out and apparent.
Not to me. :-(
Post by RobAnd I will assume that with Mukden and Tsushima lost, and the 1905 war being only a memory for 1917 Russians, that Russo-Japanese peace terms will be hashed out mainly along OTL's lines fairly quickly.
How long is Prince Lvov Prime Minister?
Who follows him as Prime Minister?
When is the Constituent Assembly scheduled for?
Who wins the elections for it and what kind of constitution is adopted?
Is there a land reform/land redistribution program?
Will politics operate entirely in the constitutional and politicking spheres, or will divisions get so severe that factions arm up and fight a civil war?
Outside Russia, what do the other powers think of the sudden change? Is Russia more or less debilitated internationally in 1905-1908 compared to OTL? Do the Germans or Austrians think Russia is immobilized and they can try to make more ambitious moves against potential opponents like France (for the Germans) or Serbia (for Austria)?
Of course, Russia is in a deep <youknowwhat> but it already has something that nobody else does:
1. Much greater experience with the machine guns than any army in Europe.
2. Knowledge and usage of the poisoned gas and the means of protection.
3. It is the only country with a meaningful (even if small) military aviation including the 1st heavy bomber (Ilya Muromets). It already solved a problem with synchronized guns (in Britain relevant was developed in 1916 with the help of the author of the Russian system, "Scarff-Dibovski" system). Its production (5,000 aircraft and 4,000 engines between 1914 and 1918) was slightly ahead of A-H and well behind Germany but we are talking about 1905 when the future opponents had NOTHING (the first military aircraft to be acquired by the German Army entered service in 1910).
4. It already has 5 dreadnoughts (IIRC) with one more under construction (the 1st British is ready only in 1906), there were numerous modern destroyers and few dozens of submarines. Nothing comparing to the major fleets of the WWI but not too bad for 1905 (the 1st fully functional submarine had been commissioned by the German Navy only in December of 1906).
5. It has numerous armored cars and reasonably clear idea about the tanks (of course, Russian prototypes designed during WWI proved to be impractical but by 1917 there is some knowledge of the French and British models).
6. It has a clear idea of how to use radio in army.
7. It has practical knowledge of the advanced tactics which were not yet being used by anybody else (and plenty of time to set up production of a barbed wire, steel helmets, etc.). General Brusilov is pretty much alive and kicking and so are his subordinates.
8. It already has a well-developed munition industry.
