Post by Rich Rostrom Post by Alex Milman
The whole sequence of the OTL events ends on
establishing a constitutional monarchy. Let's say,
Louis XVI dies of a heart stroke, there is Louis
XVII, and regency (of his uncle who presumably has a
little bit more brains than his mother) is
established. It is weaker (in the terms of
resisting) than Louis XVI and thus dynasty survives.
No Revolution, 1st Empire, endless wars but what
could happen instead?
The dynasty could survive, and perhaps the "republican
revolution" might not happen (i.e. no abolition of the
monarchy for a republic).
But ISTM that France was ripe for drastic change. For
instance, when the Third Estate asserted itself as a
national assembly, and was joined by the Second and
Yes, and the changes started while Louis XVI still was a king: there were numerous reforms including introduction of the constitutional monarchy. The main problem with Louis was that, instead of "trying to relax and enjoy it", he kept trying to assert his principles by using the constitutional means (royal right of a veto).
Post by Rich Rostrom
However, that leaves open the question of what does
or doesn't happen without the "hot" revolutionary
convulsion of OTL.
This was exactly the question I was asking. Some of the obvious questions/changes:
1. Obviously, no Revolutionary Wars. Consequences are immense. Among them:
1.1. Military (and social) reforms in Prussia are delayed for indefinite period of time.
1.2. Most probably Russia would keep advancing against the Ottomans on a much greater scale than in OTL (no distractions). However, delayed military reforms as well and no huge OTL army in the early XIX with a resulting lesser economic burden.
1.3. No endless redrawing of the European map.
1.4. No civil war in Spain. Would the colonies gain independence at approximately the same time as in OTL?
1.5. No Polish state (Congressional Poland)
1.6. British prestige and influence on continent is lesser than in OTL
1.7. Malta belongs to the Knights. For how much longer?
1.8. No Bernadotte dynasty in Sweden.
2. No Terror.
3. Not quite clear situation with the landownership - probably there would be no massive confiscations but something would have to be done.
4. No "military revolution", which resulted in creation of the huge national armies in continental Europe.
5. Would French economy grow faster than in OTL with the social reforms and without decades of wars and would it be able to became dominant in Europe? I was under the impression that by the time of the Revolution the French merchant class was somewhat timid and lacking aggressiveness. For example, the French goods had been carried to Russia by the British ships and ratification of the French-Russian trade agreement on the French side had been dragging all the way to the Revolution (at least in a short term the treaty would be beneficial to France). Perhaps this was a byproduct of the decades of the assertive government?
6. For how much longer would HRE survive and what would be impact on a future unification of Germany?