WIF No French Revolution

[Alex Milman]

The whole sequence of the OTL events ends on establishing a constitutional monarchy. Let's say, Louis XVI dies of a heart stroke, there is Louis XVII, and regency (of his uncle who presumably has a little bit more brains than his mother) is established. It is weaker (in the terms of resisting) than Louis XVI and thus dynasty survives.

No Revolution, 1st Empire, endless wars but what could happen instead?

[SolomonW]

Post by Alex Milman
The whole sequence of the OTL events ends on establishing a constitutional monarchy. Let's say, Louis XVI dies of a heart stroke, there is Louis XVII, and regency (of his uncle who presumably has a little bit more brains than his mother) is established. It is weaker (in the terms of resisting) than Louis XVI and thus dynasty survives.
No Revolution, 1st Empire, endless wars but what could happen instead?

France dominate Europe.

[Alex Milman]

Post by SolomonW

Post by Alex Milman
The whole sequence of the OTL events ends on establishing a constitutional monarchy. Let's say, Louis XVI dies of a heart stroke, there is Louis XVII, and regency (of his uncle who presumably has a little bit more brains than his mother) is established. It is weaker (in the terms of resisting) than Louis XVI and thus dynasty survives.
No Revolution, 1st Empire, endless wars but what could happen instead?

France dominate Europe.

France of Louis XVI did not dominate it in any meaningful way with the possible exception of fashions and general culture. So what is your picture of a dominance and the ways to achieve it?

[Rich Rostrom]

Post by Alex Milman
The whole sequence of the OTL events ends on
establishing a constitutional monarchy. Let's say,
Louis XVI dies of a heart stroke, there is Louis
XVII, and regency (of his uncle who presumably has a
little bit more brains than his mother) is
established. It is weaker (in the terms of
resisting) than Louis XVI and thus dynasty survives.
No Revolution, 1st Empire, endless wars but what
could happen instead?

The dynasty could survive, and perhaps the "republican
revolution" might not happen (i.e. no abolition of the
monarchy for a republic).

But ISTM that France was ripe for drastic change. For
instance, when the Third Estate asserted itself as a
national assembly, and was joined by the Second and
First Estates.

Then there was the night of 4 August 1789, when the
Assembly abolished the whole array of feudal
privileges and dues, along with the church tithe.

Add in the Declaration of the Rights of Man, and abolition
of the parlements, and it might well become known as a
"Revolution", though more like England's "Glorious
Revolution".

And all this was pretty much going to happen.

However, that leaves open the question of what does
or doesn't happen without the "hot" revolutionary
convulsion of OTL.

[Alex Milman]

Post by Rich Rostrom

Post by Alex Milman
The whole sequence of the OTL events ends on
establishing a constitutional monarchy. Let's say,
Louis XVI dies of a heart stroke, there is Louis
XVII, and regency (of his uncle who presumably has a
little bit more brains than his mother) is
established. It is weaker (in the terms of
resisting) than Louis XVI and thus dynasty survives.
No Revolution, 1st Empire, endless wars but what
could happen instead?

The dynasty could survive, and perhaps the "republican
revolution" might not happen (i.e. no abolition of the
monarchy for a republic).
But ISTM that France was ripe for drastic change. For
instance, when the Third Estate asserted itself as a
national assembly, and was joined by the Second and
First Estates.

Yes, and the changes started while Louis XVI still was a king: there were numerous reforms including introduction of the constitutional monarchy. The main problem with Louis was that, instead of "trying to relax and enjoy it", he kept trying to assert his principles by using the constitutional means (royal right of a veto).

[]

Post by Rich Rostrom
However, that leaves open the question of what does
or doesn't happen without the "hot" revolutionary
convulsion of OTL.

This was exactly the question I was asking. Some of the obvious questions/changes:

1. Obviously, no Revolutionary Wars. Consequences are immense. Among them:

1.1. Military (and social) reforms in Prussia are delayed for indefinite period of time.
1.2. Most probably Russia would keep advancing against the Ottomans on a much greater scale than in OTL (no distractions). However, delayed military reforms as well and no huge OTL army in the early XIX with a resulting lesser economic burden.
1.3. No endless redrawing of the European map.
1.4. No civil war in Spain. Would the colonies gain independence at approximately the same time as in OTL?
1.5. No Polish state (Congressional Poland)
1.6. British prestige and influence on continent is lesser than in OTL
1.7. Malta belongs to the Knights. For how much longer?
1.8. No Bernadotte dynasty in Sweden.

2. No Terror.

3. Not quite clear situation with the landownership - probably there would be no massive confiscations but something would have to be done.

4. No "military revolution", which resulted in creation of the huge national armies in continental Europe.

5. Would French economy grow faster than in OTL with the social reforms and without decades of wars and would it be able to became dominant in Europe? I was under the impression that by the time of the Revolution the French merchant class was somewhat timid and lacking aggressiveness. For example, the French goods had been carried to Russia by the British ships and ratification of the French-Russian trade agreement on the French side had been dragging all the way to the Revolution (at least in a short term the treaty would be beneficial to France). Perhaps this was a byproduct of the decades of the assertive government?

6. For how much longer would HRE survive and what would be impact on a future unification of Germany?

[Rich Rostrom]

Post by Alex Milman
6. For how much longer would HRE survive and what
would be impact on a future unification of Germany?

The HRE was on its last legs by 1800. Napoleon gave
it the coup de grace in 1800-1806, but the German
princes seem to have been very willing participants in
the process of "mediatization" and consolidation of
ecclesiastical and petty states.

[Alex Milman]

Post by Rich Rostrom

Post by Alex Milman
6. For how much longer would HRE survive and what
would be impact on a future unification of Germany?

The HRE was on its last legs by 1800. Napoleon gave
it the coup de grace in 1800-1806, but the German
princes seem to have been very willing participants in
the process of "mediatization" and consolidation of
ecclesiastical and petty states.

Of course, the beneficiaries had been happy but they represented a _numeric_ minority. :-)

The HRE was outliving itself but, without the coup de grace coming from outside, it could continue its existence for few more decades. What could be an alternative event? I doubt that at least in the early XIX it could be dissolved by using its own legal instruments and, it is highly questionable if without the OTL events the Hapsburgs would voluntarily support such a process. Also, without the Revolutionary/Napoleonic wars, Prussia would remain in a state of stagnation for at least few decades and during that time hardly could serve as "alt-Napoleon". So the HRE could easily keep existing into the 2nd half of the XIX century.

So HOW and WHEN could it happen without Napoleon?

[Graham Truesdale]

Post by Alex Milman
The whole sequence of the OTL events ends on establishing a constitutional monarchy. Let's say, Louis XVI dies of a heart stroke, there is Louis XVII, and regency (of his uncle who presumably has a little bit more brains than his mother) is established. It is weaker (in the terms of resisting) than Louis XVI and thus dynasty survives.
No Revolution, 1st Empire, endless wars but what could happen instead?

(1) There have been many cases of changes of Regent in France and other countries.
(2) Louis XVIII demonstrated his brains or lack of them during his OTL reign - i.e he had learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
(3) If his ATL regency is anything like his OTL reign, I can see him being replaced - easier to do to a regent than a king.
(4) Prince Regent Philippe Égalité? Who might well end up as he did in OTL.

[Alex Milman]

Post by Graham Truesdale

Post by Alex Milman
The whole sequence of the OTL events ends on establishing a constitutional monarchy. Let's say, Louis XVI dies of a heart stroke, there is Louis XVII, and regency (of his uncle who presumably has a little bit more brains than his mother) is established. It is weaker (in the terms of resisting) than Louis XVI and thus dynasty survives.
No Revolution, 1st Empire, endless wars but what could happen instead?

(1) There have been many cases of changes of Regent in France and other countries.

Yes.

Post by Graham Truesdale
(2) Louis XVIII demonstrated his brains or lack of them during his OTL reign - i.e he had learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

Yes, but his power would be seriously restricted by the constitution. And there would be no former emigres looking for revenge and return of their wealth. If ATL process keeps going the same way as initially in OTL, royal support base is quite limited.

Post by Graham Truesdale
(3) If his ATL regency is anything like his OTL reign, I can see him being replaced - easier to do to a regent than a king.

Of course. You don't even need to execute him.

Post by Graham Truesdale
(4) Prince Regent Philippe Égalité? Who might well end up as he did in OTL.

Well, he may preserve his head and even power if we are excluding the Terror.

But I was thinking about the changes in the case where there is a reasonably stable political situation (no Terror, constitution, reforms) combined with an absence of the constant wars.

[Graham Truesdale]

Post by Alex Milman

Post by Graham Truesdale

Post by Alex Milman
The whole sequence of the OTL events ends on establishing a constitutional monarchy. Let's say, Louis XVI dies of a heart stroke, there is Louis XVII, and regency (of his uncle who presumably has a little bit more brains than his mother) is established. It is weaker (in the terms of resisting) than Louis XVI and thus dynasty survives.
No Revolution, 1st Empire, endless wars but what could happen instead?

(1) There have been many cases of changes of Regent in France and other countries.

Yes.

Post by Graham Truesdale
(2) Louis XVIII demonstrated his brains or lack of them during his OTL reign - i.e he had learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

Yes, but his power would be seriously restricted by the constitution. And there would be no former emigres looking for revenge and return of their wealth. If ATL process keeps going the same way as initially in OTL, royal support base is quite limited.

Post by Graham Truesdale
(3) If his ATL regency is anything like his OTL reign, I can see him being replaced - easier to do to a regent than a king.

Of course. You don't even need to execute him.

Post by Graham Truesdale
(4) Prince Regent Philippe Égalité? Who might well end up as he did in OTL.

Well, he may preserve his head and even power if we are excluding the Terror.
But I was thinking about the changes in the case where there is a reasonably stable political situation (no Terror, constitution, reforms) combined with an absence of the constant wars.

It depends on the sequence of events. Does *Louis XVI die before or after the constitution is adopted? If before, then there is no constitution to restrict the regency of the *Count of Provence - OTL Louis XVIII. So if he has enough rope to hang/guillotine himself (literally or metaphorically), Philippe Égalité's accession to the regency may be combined with the adoption of a constitution.

[Alex Milman]

Post by Graham Truesdale

Post by Alex Milman

Post by Graham Truesdale

Post by Alex Milman
The whole sequence of the OTL events ends on establishing a constitutional monarchy. Let's say, Louis XVI dies of a heart stroke, there is Louis XVII, and regency (of his uncle who presumably has a little bit more brains than his mother) is established. It is weaker (in the terms of resisting) than Louis XVI and thus dynasty survives.
No Revolution, 1st Empire, endless wars but what could happen instead?

(1) There have been many cases of changes of Regent in France and other countries.

Yes.

Post by Graham Truesdale
(2) Louis XVIII demonstrated his brains or lack of them during his OTL reign - i.e he had learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

Yes, but his power would be seriously restricted by the constitution. And there would be no former emigres looking for revenge and return of their wealth. If ATL process keeps going the same way as initially in OTL, royal support base is quite limited.

Post by Graham Truesdale
(3) If his ATL regency is anything like his OTL reign, I can see him being replaced - easier to do to a regent than a king.

Of course. You don't even need to execute him.

Post by Graham Truesdale
(4) Prince Regent Philippe Égalité? Who might well end up as he did in OTL.

Well, he may preserve his head and even power if we are excluding the Terror.
But I was thinking about the changes in the case where there is a reasonably stable political situation (no Terror, constitution, reforms) combined with an absence of the constant wars.

It depends on the sequence of events. Does *Louis XVI die before or after the constitution is adopted?

Initial premise was that he is dying soon after it is adopted.

Post by Graham Truesdale
If before, then there is no constitution to restrict the regency of the *Count of Provence - OTL Louis XVIII.

Louis could not resist its adoption and regent would be in a much weaker position: replacing him would be easier than replacing a king.

Look, when Louis XIV died, the regency (by his will) should go to the Duke of Orleans and the Duke Du Maine. The last remained a regent for a single day: his regency was annulled by the Parlement de Paris. So, if regent to be makes unpleasant noises (with or without the constitution), he ceases to be a regent because it was pretty much impossible at that point to stop the reforms. I'm not sure that even alleged "Napoleon's recipe" of killing 200 - 300 people with a grapeshot (to whom would he say such a thing?) would work.

Post by Graham Truesdale
So if he has enough rope to hang/guillotine himself (literally or metaphorically), Philippe Égalité's accession to the regency may be combined with the adoption of a constitution.

Of course, Philippe Égalité would be more suitable figure.

[The Old Man]

Post by Graham Truesdale
(2) Louis XVIII demonstrated his brains or lack of them during his OTL reign - i.e he had learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
(3) If his ATL regency is anything like his OTL reign, I can see him being replaced - easier to do to a regent than a king.

Wait a minute! The OTL Louis XVIII was NOT the same person in this ATL. Our OTL Dauphin was presumed to have died in prison and the Louis XVIII OTL was Louis XVIII was the younger brother of Louis XVI. In the ATL, if the kid survives to become Louis XVII, this Louis XVIII won't see the throne.

[Graham Truesdale]

Post by The Old Man

Post by Graham Truesdale
(2) Louis XVIII demonstrated his brains or lack of them during his OTL reign - i.e he had learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
(3) If his ATL regency is anything like his OTL reign, I can see him being replaced - easier to do to a regent than a king.

Wait a minute! The OTL Louis XVIII was NOT the same person in this ATL. Our OTL Dauphin was presumed to have died in prison and the Louis XVIII OTL was Louis XVIII was the younger brother of Louis XVI. In the ATL, if the kid survives to become Louis XVII, this Louis XVIII won't see the throne.

Indeed - the OTL Louis XVIII would be known as the *Count of Provence in the ATL. My post was discussing what might have happened if he had become regent for his nephew *Louis XVII.

[Alex Milman]

Post by Graham Truesdale

Post by The Old Man

Post by Graham Truesdale
(2) Louis XVIII demonstrated his brains or lack of them during his OTL reign - i.e he had learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
(3) If his ATL regency is anything like his OTL reign, I can see him being replaced - easier to do to a regent than a king.

Wait a minute! The OTL Louis XVIII was NOT the same person in this ATL. Our OTL Dauphin was presumed to have died in prison and the Louis XVIII OTL was Louis XVIII was the younger brother of Louis XVI. In the ATL, if the kid survives to become Louis XVII, this Louis XVIII won't see the throne.

Indeed - the OTL Louis XVIII would be known as the *Count of Provence in the ATL. My post was discussing what might have happened if he had become regent for his nephew *Louis XVII.

IMO, he would either have to adjust (sounds unlikely, judging by OTL) or end up to be replaced (with or without loss of his head) by Count of Artois (future Charles X) who was seemingly not too much better in the terms of being able to adjust. After them, there would be a turn of the Duke of Orleans who definitely possessed a much more flexible backbone.