troll
2009-07-15 22:27:41 UTC
It is difficult to think of what points of departure
could cause the U.S. to get nukes this much earlier
than it did in comparison to our time line.
The best that I can come up with is that:
1. An equivalent of the Einstein-Szilard letter
gets written and sent to Roosevelt 2 or 3 years
earlier.
and probably more importantly.
2. Equivalents of the Briggs Advisory Committee
on Uranium and the S-1 Uranium Committee get
more heavily funded and start an equivalent of the
Manhattan Project much earlier.
The net result is that by early 1942 there are several
calutron plants in operation and a gaseous diffusion
plant is being built. Several reactors are also in
operation, however, someone also managed to
figure out that plutonium would not work so an
implosion trigger is still in the theoretical stages.
In March of 1942, in the desert of the western
United States, a weapon is tested. Debate
abounds as to whether to demonstrate the
test to the Germans and Japanese or keep
it secret. It will take about four more months
to get enough Uranium for the next weapon.
The test of the gun trigger device is successful,
even though it was not one hundred percent
sure that it would work when it was tested.
It operates about as well as our time line's
test of the implosion device, however the
test falls under sharp criticism, because it
was not used against a military target.
By middle July of 1942, enough highly
enriched Uranium for another bomb is
ready, and the components for the
next gun triggered bomb are assembled.
You are Roosevelt. How much that means
that you are you and how much that
means that you are Roosevelt is open
to speculation.
Either way, however, what do you do?
For a time line comparison, the bombing
of Pearl Harbor in our time line happened
in December of 1941, the Doolittle Raid
happened about April 18, 1942, the
end of the Battle of Corregidor and the
Battle of the Philippines, as well as the
Battle of the Coral Sea happened in the
early part of May, and the Battle of
Midway happened in early June of 1942.
In our time line Operation Torch, the
British-American invasion of French
North Africa started later in November
of 1942.
Intelligence estimates seem to indicate
that the Germans are much more likely
to be able to develop a bomb than
the Japanese, however the Japanese
might be in a much better position to
be able to deliver a weapon, at least
to the west coast of the United States,
if they were able to get one.
At the same time, however, a bomb
dropped in Europe might have a
much better chance of delivering
to target than an atomic Doolittle
raid.
There is also the possibility of
using it against military targets,
possibly a Japanese fleet, in the
Pacific. The problem with that
is having the atomic weapon in
the right place at the right time,
and finding a large enough and
concentrated Japanese fleet that
would be close enough together
to be a worthwhile target.
You could wait another four
months until two bombs are
ready, and then drop one in
each theater. However that
policy fell under severe criticism
when all of the enriched Uranium
235 was wasted with the first
atomic test.
You hear about the possibility
of an implosion trigger for
plutonium, but you are not
sure if that is ever going to
work or not at all.
If you do not use the bomb, and
try to keep the bomb secret,
you are not sure if plans for
the bomb are going to eventually
leak to either the Japanese or
to NAZI Germany either, even
if you do not use it.
What do you do?
Is either Germany or Japan
going to surrender? What
will they do?
could cause the U.S. to get nukes this much earlier
than it did in comparison to our time line.
The best that I can come up with is that:
1. An equivalent of the Einstein-Szilard letter
gets written and sent to Roosevelt 2 or 3 years
earlier.
and probably more importantly.
2. Equivalents of the Briggs Advisory Committee
on Uranium and the S-1 Uranium Committee get
more heavily funded and start an equivalent of the
Manhattan Project much earlier.
The net result is that by early 1942 there are several
calutron plants in operation and a gaseous diffusion
plant is being built. Several reactors are also in
operation, however, someone also managed to
figure out that plutonium would not work so an
implosion trigger is still in the theoretical stages.
In March of 1942, in the desert of the western
United States, a weapon is tested. Debate
abounds as to whether to demonstrate the
test to the Germans and Japanese or keep
it secret. It will take about four more months
to get enough Uranium for the next weapon.
The test of the gun trigger device is successful,
even though it was not one hundred percent
sure that it would work when it was tested.
It operates about as well as our time line's
test of the implosion device, however the
test falls under sharp criticism, because it
was not used against a military target.
By middle July of 1942, enough highly
enriched Uranium for another bomb is
ready, and the components for the
next gun triggered bomb are assembled.
You are Roosevelt. How much that means
that you are you and how much that
means that you are Roosevelt is open
to speculation.
Either way, however, what do you do?
For a time line comparison, the bombing
of Pearl Harbor in our time line happened
in December of 1941, the Doolittle Raid
happened about April 18, 1942, the
end of the Battle of Corregidor and the
Battle of the Philippines, as well as the
Battle of the Coral Sea happened in the
early part of May, and the Battle of
Midway happened in early June of 1942.
In our time line Operation Torch, the
British-American invasion of French
North Africa started later in November
of 1942.
Intelligence estimates seem to indicate
that the Germans are much more likely
to be able to develop a bomb than
the Japanese, however the Japanese
might be in a much better position to
be able to deliver a weapon, at least
to the west coast of the United States,
if they were able to get one.
At the same time, however, a bomb
dropped in Europe might have a
much better chance of delivering
to target than an atomic Doolittle
raid.
There is also the possibility of
using it against military targets,
possibly a Japanese fleet, in the
Pacific. The problem with that
is having the atomic weapon in
the right place at the right time,
and finding a large enough and
concentrated Japanese fleet that
would be close enough together
to be a worthwhile target.
You could wait another four
months until two bombs are
ready, and then drop one in
each theater. However that
policy fell under severe criticism
when all of the enriched Uranium
235 was wasted with the first
atomic test.
You hear about the possibility
of an implosion trigger for
plutonium, but you are not
sure if that is ever going to
work or not at all.
If you do not use the bomb, and
try to keep the bomb secret,
you are not sure if plans for
the bomb are going to eventually
leak to either the Japanese or
to NAZI Germany either, even
if you do not use it.
What do you do?
Is either Germany or Japan
going to surrender? What
will they do?