s***@yahoo.com
2006-08-21 08:58:46 UTC
Revisiting a discussion with Joe Wang, back in 1999.
19th century China was screwed a bunch of different ways. Can we fix
this? Let's try.
[handwave] I give China a Great Man.
POD: 1815, a male child is born to a family of wealthy landowners in
central China. Young Wong will grow up to be a more-than-competent
general, a more-than-competent administrator, and very very clever and
farsighted.
By the 1840s, he's an ambitious young general under the Qing... but
the real difference isn't seen until the 1860s, when General Wong wins
a couple of major victories over the Taiping, bringing that rebellion
to a swifter end than in OTL. Luckily for him, he's busy killing
Taipings when the Franco-British army arrives in Peking and burns the
palace, so he's not tainted with that defeat.
Wong keeps winning battles, the Dowager Empress tries to have him
removed or killed, and he ends up marching north, victorious army in
tow, and overthrowing the Qing.
Track #1: Wong simply overthrows the Qing, claims the Mandate of
Heaven, and declares a new Wong Dynasty.
Problem: Wong is soon fighting Emperors Chang, Li, and Wu. Once the
Qing is overthrown everything is up for grabs, and all of the generals
are going to want to be emperor.
This leads to an "earlier warlordism in China" TL. That's interesting,
but it's not what we want here. So we shift to
Track #2: Wong takes out the Dowager Empress. OTL a couple of royal
princes, I and Cheng, just barely missed getting rid of her when the
Emperor died in 1861. They nearly got her, twice, but in the end she
turned the tables on them and they got the silk cord.
So let's have General Wang succeed where the princes failed, and remove
Empress Cixi from the board. Now he can rule as Regent from 1865 to
1873, when the young Emperor dies of natural causes just as in OTL. He
can then formally take the throne without undue difficulty.
At this point Wong is in his early fifties, so probably good for
another 15 or 20 years. We'll say he has a couple of healthy young
adult sons, so the succession is assured. Let's assume that, other
than the Taipings having been crushed rather faster than in OTL, the
China he inherits is identical to the China of OTL.
So. What can Emperor Wong do? Is China screwed regardless? Or can he
launch a more effective course of modernization than iOTL?
Some thoughts:
1) Push for mass literacy. 19th century China was more literate than
you might think, but the modal Chinese was still an illiterate or
semiliterate peasant living near subsistence level. The Japanese laid
the foundation of modernization with mass primary education; China
should do the same.
There may be some resistance to this among the peasants (the kids are
needed in the fields) but that's what the Mandate of Heaven is for.
2) Reform the army, obviously. He may have gotten a head start on
this already. Note that the army need not be brought up to Western
standards overnight. Getting it to the point where it could put up a
respectable defensive fight against western-level aggressors would be a
huge step forward. A professional military, rather than a bunch of
feudal levies, would be a big start.
3) Reform the currency. China was on the silver standard! Fix that.
4) A national assembly. OTL, 19th century China had lots of
provincial assemblies, but not a national one. It's a good way to
focus nationalist feeling, and also to draw out the competent and
ambitious for either co-opting or isolation. Long-term it might be a
rival center of authority, but that's long-term.
5) Reform _and expand_ the bureacracy. Easier said than done. But
you can't accomplish the reforms in education and the economy without a
powerful, competent and dedicated bureacracy. Taxes must be collected
and the new laws must be enforced. The Meiji Japanese had the unfair
advantage of inheriting a whole set of good instruments of government
from the Tokugawa. Still, China should be able to come up with
something nearly as good, given determination and a little time.
...time. How will the western powers, in the golden age of
imperialism, respond to a China that's serious about reform? How much
maneuvering room will Wong have?
Which brings us back to the central question: 19th century China --
totally screwed, or not?
Thoughts?
Doug M.
19th century China was screwed a bunch of different ways. Can we fix
this? Let's try.
[handwave] I give China a Great Man.
POD: 1815, a male child is born to a family of wealthy landowners in
central China. Young Wong will grow up to be a more-than-competent
general, a more-than-competent administrator, and very very clever and
farsighted.
By the 1840s, he's an ambitious young general under the Qing... but
the real difference isn't seen until the 1860s, when General Wong wins
a couple of major victories over the Taiping, bringing that rebellion
to a swifter end than in OTL. Luckily for him, he's busy killing
Taipings when the Franco-British army arrives in Peking and burns the
palace, so he's not tainted with that defeat.
Wong keeps winning battles, the Dowager Empress tries to have him
removed or killed, and he ends up marching north, victorious army in
tow, and overthrowing the Qing.
Track #1: Wong simply overthrows the Qing, claims the Mandate of
Heaven, and declares a new Wong Dynasty.
Problem: Wong is soon fighting Emperors Chang, Li, and Wu. Once the
Qing is overthrown everything is up for grabs, and all of the generals
are going to want to be emperor.
This leads to an "earlier warlordism in China" TL. That's interesting,
but it's not what we want here. So we shift to
Track #2: Wong takes out the Dowager Empress. OTL a couple of royal
princes, I and Cheng, just barely missed getting rid of her when the
Emperor died in 1861. They nearly got her, twice, but in the end she
turned the tables on them and they got the silk cord.
So let's have General Wang succeed where the princes failed, and remove
Empress Cixi from the board. Now he can rule as Regent from 1865 to
1873, when the young Emperor dies of natural causes just as in OTL. He
can then formally take the throne without undue difficulty.
At this point Wong is in his early fifties, so probably good for
another 15 or 20 years. We'll say he has a couple of healthy young
adult sons, so the succession is assured. Let's assume that, other
than the Taipings having been crushed rather faster than in OTL, the
China he inherits is identical to the China of OTL.
So. What can Emperor Wong do? Is China screwed regardless? Or can he
launch a more effective course of modernization than iOTL?
Some thoughts:
1) Push for mass literacy. 19th century China was more literate than
you might think, but the modal Chinese was still an illiterate or
semiliterate peasant living near subsistence level. The Japanese laid
the foundation of modernization with mass primary education; China
should do the same.
There may be some resistance to this among the peasants (the kids are
needed in the fields) but that's what the Mandate of Heaven is for.
2) Reform the army, obviously. He may have gotten a head start on
this already. Note that the army need not be brought up to Western
standards overnight. Getting it to the point where it could put up a
respectable defensive fight against western-level aggressors would be a
huge step forward. A professional military, rather than a bunch of
feudal levies, would be a big start.
3) Reform the currency. China was on the silver standard! Fix that.
4) A national assembly. OTL, 19th century China had lots of
provincial assemblies, but not a national one. It's a good way to
focus nationalist feeling, and also to draw out the competent and
ambitious for either co-opting or isolation. Long-term it might be a
rival center of authority, but that's long-term.
5) Reform _and expand_ the bureacracy. Easier said than done. But
you can't accomplish the reforms in education and the economy without a
powerful, competent and dedicated bureacracy. Taxes must be collected
and the new laws must be enforced. The Meiji Japanese had the unfair
advantage of inheriting a whole set of good instruments of government
from the Tokugawa. Still, China should be able to come up with
something nearly as good, given determination and a little time.
...time. How will the western powers, in the golden age of
imperialism, respond to a China that's serious about reform? How much
maneuvering room will Wong have?
Which brings us back to the central question: 19th century China --
totally screwed, or not?
Thoughts?
Doug M.