pyotr filipivich
2013-11-27 19:51:03 UTC
This is going to be short, I left an hour ago.
The question underlying most of the "What if So and so dies/lives?" is
the unending question of "Is 'history' a result of actions of The
Great Man, or are there currents to 'history' which make Things
Happen?"
I am of a middle ground - certain sweeps of history are
inevitable, because they are the result of human nature. But a "great
man" can harness those forces, and do things with them. Traditional
Example: "the Diktat" as the Treaty of Versailles was known in Weimar
Germany, was unpopular, considered to be unfair, and a result of the
Foreign Ministry Stabbing the Army in the Back. There was great
unrest, even before the economic ... "difficulties". One could argue
that a rematch of The Great War was inevitable, that much of French
and British Foreign Policy was aimed at preventing just such a repeat.
(One must admit, they succeeded. There was no trench warfare in
France in 1940, nicht wahr?)
But, Herr Hitler, former Staff Sergeant in the Imperial Army, was
able to exploit that tide of discontent, "win friends and influence
people" so that His Plan was the one "accepted" by Germany, so that
the Great War II would be according to His Policy. The end result is
as we have seen, and yet, here we are, seventy years later, still
working what the "tides" set in place by the actions of that one
individual will be.
Likewise, in 1905, the Moroccan Crisis _almost_ lead to war
between Germany and France. It has been argued that because Willy
chickened out, The Great War of 1914 "was inevitable". But if he had
gone to war in 1905, the outcome would have been more along the lines
of 1870, than 1914. "Yet Another European War" preempts the [unknown]
Great War of 1914 (yet the Serbs, et al, would still have had their
three Balkan wars of 1910, 1912, and 1914. And maybe a few more), and
... possibly no Picasso, Salvador Dali, or Elvis Preisly.
That would be an interesting time line to explore - the von
Schilffen plan of 1905, and the "immediate" knock ons, of yet another
'short, victorious war' in France, in terms of physics, music, art,
economics and the development of digital television as an art form.
Have at it.
pyotr
--
pyotr filipovich
There are two things to remember about History, and both are cliches:
The First is "After all, these are Modern Times."
The Second is "The good Old Days, they were Better."
The question underlying most of the "What if So and so dies/lives?" is
the unending question of "Is 'history' a result of actions of The
Great Man, or are there currents to 'history' which make Things
Happen?"
I am of a middle ground - certain sweeps of history are
inevitable, because they are the result of human nature. But a "great
man" can harness those forces, and do things with them. Traditional
Example: "the Diktat" as the Treaty of Versailles was known in Weimar
Germany, was unpopular, considered to be unfair, and a result of the
Foreign Ministry Stabbing the Army in the Back. There was great
unrest, even before the economic ... "difficulties". One could argue
that a rematch of The Great War was inevitable, that much of French
and British Foreign Policy was aimed at preventing just such a repeat.
(One must admit, they succeeded. There was no trench warfare in
France in 1940, nicht wahr?)
But, Herr Hitler, former Staff Sergeant in the Imperial Army, was
able to exploit that tide of discontent, "win friends and influence
people" so that His Plan was the one "accepted" by Germany, so that
the Great War II would be according to His Policy. The end result is
as we have seen, and yet, here we are, seventy years later, still
working what the "tides" set in place by the actions of that one
individual will be.
Likewise, in 1905, the Moroccan Crisis _almost_ lead to war
between Germany and France. It has been argued that because Willy
chickened out, The Great War of 1914 "was inevitable". But if he had
gone to war in 1905, the outcome would have been more along the lines
of 1870, than 1914. "Yet Another European War" preempts the [unknown]
Great War of 1914 (yet the Serbs, et al, would still have had their
three Balkan wars of 1910, 1912, and 1914. And maybe a few more), and
... possibly no Picasso, Salvador Dali, or Elvis Preisly.
That would be an interesting time line to explore - the von
Schilffen plan of 1905, and the "immediate" knock ons, of yet another
'short, victorious war' in France, in terms of physics, music, art,
economics and the development of digital television as an art form.
Have at it.
pyotr
--
pyotr filipovich
There are two things to remember about History, and both are cliches:
The First is "After all, these are Modern Times."
The Second is "The good Old Days, they were Better."