Discussion:
Russia never gets to the Baltic coast
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Alex Milman
2017-06-13 01:02:41 UTC
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What if Russia is satisfied with the Treaty of Cardis (1661)? The coastal
territory remains in the Swedish possession but the Russian merchants have
a right to set up their warehouses in Stockholm, Riga, Revel, Narva (and
Swedes got similar rights for a number of the Russian cities) and the same
goes for a right of free passage. Also, the reasonable taxes had been
established not to cut off the Russian trade.

Of course, a temptation of getting their own port had been big but even after
the Great Northern War for most of the XVIII an overwhelming volume of cargo to
and from St Petersburg and Riga had been carried by the foreign ships.
So, on one hand there is no St. Petersburg (but perhaps Novgorod becomes more
important, as was the case before it was destroyed by Ivans III & IV). OTOH,
there are no 2+ decades of the Northern War and few more wars with Sweden in
the XVIII and early XIX with the huge stress on the Russian economy (and
demographics).

Sweden retains possession of the Baltic provinces (and in XIX century
Finland) and is not suffering from the exhaustion caused by the GNW but
perhaps it will eventually face a need to defend them from the expanding
Prussia.

Perhaps, there is earlier concentration on anti-Ottoman/Crimea activities
or "Drang Nach Osten" Russian style: earlier expansion into the Central Asia.


Ideas?
The Horny Goat
2017-06-13 02:47:39 UTC
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On Mon, 12 Jun 2017 18:02:41 -0700 (PDT), Alex Milman
Post by Alex Milman
Sweden retains possession of the Baltic provinces (and in XIX century
Finland) and is not suffering from the exhaustion caused by the GNW but
perhaps it will eventually face a need to defend them from the expanding
Prussia.
Perhaps, there is earlier concentration on anti-Ottoman/Crimea activities
or "Drang Nach Osten" Russian style: earlier expansion into the Central Asia.
Ideas?
Russia reached the Pacific in the early 18th Century - including the
use of people like Bering. Would think if you're going to get Russia
to the Pacific 75-100 years earlier you've got to remove people like
Stenka Razin.

Not saying your WI is impossible but it's tough if you still have
local 17th century revolts like his.
Alex Milman
2017-06-13 03:49:00 UTC
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Post by The Horny Goat
On Mon, 12 Jun 2017 18:02:41 -0700 (PDT), Alex Milman
Post by Alex Milman
Sweden retains possession of the Baltic provinces (and in XIX century
Finland) and is not suffering from the exhaustion caused by the GNW but
perhaps it will eventually face a need to defend them from the expanding
Prussia.
Perhaps, there is earlier concentration on anti-Ottoman/Crimea activities
or "Drang Nach Osten" Russian style: earlier expansion into the Central Asia.
Ideas?
Russia reached the Pacific in the early 18th Century
It reached the Pacific coast in the mid-XVII. Sea of Okhotsk had been
reached in 1639 and Deznev sailed through what later became known as
Bering Strait in 1648 (80 years before Vitus Bering). Serious exploring
of Amur River started in the early 1640's and research of Yakutia slightly
earlier.
Post by The Horny Goat
- including the
use of people like Bering.
At the time of Bering the Pacific coast had been already reached. His task
was to map the lands between Russian Pacific coast and America and he sailed
from the already existing city Okhotsk (Loading Image...)
Post by The Horny Goat
Would think if you're going to get Russia
to the Pacific 75-100 years earlier
They DID reach it 75 - 100 years earlier than you think. :-)
Post by The Horny Goat
you've got to remove people like
Stenka Razin.
See above about the timing: exploration of Siberia and Russian Pacific had
nothing to do with Razin: he and his sailed to Persia and then returned and
started rebellion on Volga well after the Pacific coast had been reached.
With a lot of the loot available locally why would they care about the
remote areas? And the peasants (and even streltsy) who joined him had been
motivated by the reasons which had nothing to do with any sea or geographic
exploration.
Post by The Horny Goat
Not saying your WI is impossible but it's tough if you still have
local 17th century revolts like his.
What these revolts had to do with anything? BTW, Pugachev's Upraising was
much greater in its scope and it was WELL after Bering's time so how does
it fit in your schema? The uprisings of various sizes and severity had been
happening quite regularly but it does not look like they prevented Russia
from OTL expansion in BOTH directions. This ATL just removes a very expensive
and protracted war which put a huge burden in the Russian economy and caused
losses of up to 25% of the population.
The Horny Goat
2017-06-13 05:54:32 UTC
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On Mon, 12 Jun 2017 20:49:00 -0700 (PDT), Alex Milman
Post by Alex Milman
What these revolts had to do with anything? BTW, Pugachev's Upraising was
much greater in its scope and it was WELL after Bering's time so how does
it fit in your schema? The uprisings of various sizes and severity had been
happening quite regularly but it does not look like they prevented Russia
from OTL expansion in BOTH directions. This ATL just removes a very expensive
and protracted war which put a huge burden in the Russian economy and caused
losses of up to 25% of the population.
What I was going to say after I checked my dates (regretably I went on
my memory on the Alaskan stuff forgetting about the west coast of the
Pacific) was that Pugachev was well after Bering during a period when
the Siberian tribes were not especially active.

Yes I'm aware of how Russia came to acquire the territory that became
St Petersberg and the Baltic States.
Alex Milman
2017-06-13 15:36:50 UTC
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Post by The Horny Goat
On Mon, 12 Jun 2017 20:49:00 -0700 (PDT), Alex Milman
Post by Alex Milman
What these revolts had to do with anything? BTW, Pugachev's Upraising was
much greater in its scope and it was WELL after Bering's time so how does
it fit in your schema? The uprisings of various sizes and severity had been
happening quite regularly but it does not look like they prevented Russia
from OTL expansion in BOTH directions. This ATL just removes a very expensive
and protracted war which put a huge burden in the Russian economy and caused
losses of up to 25% of the population.
What I was going to say after I checked my dates (regretably I went on
my memory on the Alaskan stuff forgetting about the west coast of the
Pacific) was that Pugachev was well after Bering during a period when
the Siberian tribes were not especially active.
The Siberian tribes hardly were a serious problem comparing with the Chinese
competition and the distances.
Post by The Horny Goat
Yes I'm aware of how Russia came to acquire the territory that became
St Petersberg and the Baltic States.
Which leaves the initial question: what if it did NOT acquire these territories?

Expansion to the Pacific was a relatively minor thing all the way to the XIX
century while expansion to the South at the Ottoman and Persian expense was
a major part of the Russian political and military efforts in the XVIII.
The Horny Goat
2017-06-14 00:29:41 UTC
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On Tue, 13 Jun 2017 08:36:50 -0700 (PDT), Alex Milman
Post by Alex Milman
Expansion to the Pacific was a relatively minor thing all the way to the XIX
century while expansion to the South at the Ottoman and Persian expense was
a major part of the Russian political and military efforts in the XVIII.
Russian acquisition of the Straits (and for Russia there were only one
"Straits") could easily have meant a coalition war against her
particularly if there's expansion beyond the Aegean.

Of course conquest of the Straights likely means an Ottoman collapse
elsewhere as well. Similarly I don't see how Russian avoids war no
later than 25-30 years after the fall of Napoleon if Russia has any
kind of protectorate over Persia.

This of course would mean a much larger war than the Crimean War and
such a war may have made the Indian revolt in 1857 VERY interesting.
Rob
2017-06-14 02:10:44 UTC
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On Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 8:29:35 PM UTC-4, The Horny Goat wrote:

Maybe the Russians can get Crimea and then the straits or Central Asia and Persia before the British are thinking that stopping them would be a "Great Game".

Maybe part of an alternate Central Asian expansion could be annexing some territories from the Dzungars?
Alex Milman
2017-06-14 18:04:25 UTC
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Post by Rob
Maybe the Russians can get Crimea and then the straits or Central Asia and Persia before the British are thinking that stopping them would be a "Great Game".
Well, they DID get the Crimea before the "Great Game" started. Potentially,
capture of the Straits could happen closer to the end of the XVIII or even
during the war of 1768 - 74, providing Russia has more troops and a better
logistics. At that time the Brits were in a close alliance with Russia
opening ports for the Baltic Squadron, helping with the repairs (and even
selling the ships, IIRC), allowing British sailors of all ranks to enter the
Russian service, etc. Taking into an account that at this time France was
the active Ottoman ally, capture of the Straits could happen with the British
help and not contrary to the British interests.
Post by Rob
Maybe part of an alternate Central Asian expansion could be annexing some territories from the Dzungars?
Eventually, a (small) part of it ended up in the Russian Turkestan but the
main stress was on the areas closer to the Russian possessions.

Alex Milman
2017-06-14 17:49:38 UTC
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Russian acquisition of the Straits (and for Russia there were only one
Post by The Horny Goat
"Straits") could easily have meant a coalition war against her
particularly if there's expansion beyond the Aegean.
We are talking about the change that happened in the early XVIII (approximately 1700 - 20) when there was no realistic way for Russia of that period to capture
the Straits: even annexation of the Crimea proved to be impossible until the
2nd half of the XVIII (penetration of the peninsula happened much earlier but
Russian troops had to vacate the area). So, in practical terms one can talk
about (a) the limited push of the Tatars/Ottomans out of the Don area (as a
continuation of Azov campaigns), (b) more aggressive policies in Caucasus
(in Georgia) accompanied by a gradual push into the Kuban area, (c) expansions
into the "no man land" on the Left Bank Ukraine.

As for Persia, there could be an earlier version of the "Gilan expedition",
which ended (in OTL) with acquisition of the Western and Southern coastline
of the Caspian Sea.

There could be a more serious and earlier push into the Central Asia.
Post by The Horny Goat
Of course conquest of the Straights likely means an Ottoman collapse
elsewhere as well.
The 1st declared goal of capturing the Straits belongs to 1735 (Russian
plan of the war formulated by fieldmarshal Munich; proved to be unrealistic).

The 1st serious attempt was made during the 1st Ottoman War of the reign of
Catherine II with the active British support while in the next war Russia
was acting in alliance with Austria and with (at least) British compliance
without which Russian naval presence on the Med would be untenable. Even
France maintained (at least formally) a neutral position. The only country
that did went into the war with Russia was Sweden (with zero results) but
in this ATL there are no reasons for the Swedish-Russian hostility.
Post by The Horny Goat
Similarly I don't see Russian avoids war no
later than 25-30 years after the fall of Napoleon if Russia has any
kind of protectorate over Persia.
It was considered that Turkmanchai Treaty of 1828 put Persia in something
close to the vassal position toward Russian Empire but the treaty was in
forced until 1917 and nobody started a war over it.
Post by The Horny Goat
This of course would mean a much larger war than the Crimean War
See above: happened and did not happen: there were no idiots willing to fight
for the British interests in Persia. :-)
Post by The Horny Goat
and
such a war may have made the Indian revolt in 1857 VERY interesting.
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