Post by David Tenner
...announces that he will seek a fifth term in 2000.
Then Hillary Clinton has to find somewhere else to carpetbag,
There were four other states with open seats in 2000:
Florida, Nebraska, Nevada, and New Jersey (where the
Democrat stood any kind of chance).
I don't see her displacing the local Democrat
in Florida or Nebraska (and they both won).
FL - state Insurance Commissioner Bill Nelson
NE - Governor Ben Nelson
Nevada is possible: the Democrats ran a rather odd
candidate: a trial lawyer and talk-show host, Ed
Bernstein, who lost badly. Clinton might have a chance.
In New Jersey, the OTL Democrat was Goldman Sachs
executive Jon Corzine; could he be jawboned into
standing aside? (He won OTL.)
There were also several states where OTL the Democrat
beat a vulnerable Republican incumbent: Delaware, Michigan,
Minnesota, Missouri, Washington.
The Democrat challengers were
DE - Governor Mike Carper
MI - Representative Debbie Stabenow
MN - former state auditor and department store heir Mark Dayton
MO - Governor Mel Carnahan
WA - former Representative Maria Cantwell
Clinton might try for Minnesota or Washington; neither
Dayton or Cantwell looks like a dominant figure. But
would she have the nerve? Challenging a specific
incumbent is a different sort of maneuver from chasing
an open seat - more personal.
Of course this invites the question: would Clinton
win, running in a different state? If Clinton runs
and loses, ISTM that's the end of the Clinton show.
Or... Clinton could wait until 2002. However - if
she thinks Gore will win in 2000, then 2002 will be
an off-year election which usually goes against the
incumbent President's party, and she may not want to
jump into that. Plus there are no vacancies (until
Torricelli dropped out in NJ, and I don't think Clinton
could get away with replacing him).
Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
--- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.