Discussion:
George H.W. Bush is reelected in 1992, is there a war to disarm North Korea?
(too old to reply)
Rob
2017-10-11 22:37:37 UTC
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What if George Bush the Elder were reelected President in 1992.

PoD is somehow Tom Harkin, Paul Tsongas or Jesse Jackson are the Democratic nominee and they lose the general to Bush and to Perot. Even if Bush does not win a plurality of votes over Perot, let's suppose he wins the electoral college.

The result of him getting a second term is frankly what I am more interested in then the process of him getting there.

How will Bush's 2nd term go? In particular, his foreign policy?

When the North Korean nuclear development program is discovered (I assume on OTL's schedule), how does the Bush Administration resolve it?

a) A deal along the lines of the Clinton Agreed Framework
b) A "miracle deal" that stops the North Korean program on nukes and long-range missiles cold
c) A Korean war involving US destruction of North Korean missile and nuke facilities
d) A Korean war concluding with regime change and Korean unification under the south
e) A Korean War that turns into a Sino-American War

Why?
Yusuf B Gursey
2017-10-15 12:52:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rob
What if George Bush the Elder were reelected President in 1992.
PoD is somehow Tom Harkin, Paul Tsongas or Jesse Jackson are the Democratic
nominee and they lose the general to Bush and to Perot. Even if Bush does not
win a plurality of votes over Perot, let's suppose he wins the electoral
college.
The result of him getting a second term is frankly what I am more interested
in then the process of him getting there.
How will Bush's 2nd term go? In particular, his foreign policy?
When the North Korean nuclear development program is discovered (I assume on
OTL's schedule), how does the Bush Administration resolve it?
a) A deal along the lines of the Clinton Agreed Framework
b) A "miracle deal" that stops the North Korean program on nukes and
long-range missiles cold
c) A Korean war involving US destruction of North Korean missile and nuke facilities
d) A Korean war concluding with regime
change and Korean unification under the south
e) A Korean War that turns into a Sino-American War
e) is a consequence of c) or d)

Something we should all keep in mind.
Post by Rob
Why?
China is not going to sit by idly.

May saner minds always privail.
Rob
2017-10-15 17:19:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Yusuf B Gursey
Post by Rob
What if George Bush the Elder were reelected President in 1992.
PoD is somehow Tom Harkin, Paul Tsongas or Jesse Jackson are the Democratic
nominee and they lose the general to Bush and to Perot. Even if Bush does not
win a plurality of votes over Perot, let's suppose he wins the electoral
college.
The result of him getting a second term is frankly what I am more interested
in then the process of him getting there.
How will Bush's 2nd term go? In particular, his foreign policy?
When the North Korean nuclear development program is discovered (I assume on
OTL's schedule), how does the Bush Administration resolve it?
a) A deal along the lines of the Clinton Agreed Framework
b) A "miracle deal" that stops the North Korean program on nukes and
long-range missiles cold
c) A Korean war involving US destruction of North Korean missile and nuke facilities
d) A Korean war concluding with regime
change and Korean unification under the south
e) A Korean War that turns into a Sino-American War
e) is a consequence of c) or d)
Something we should all keep in mind.
Post by Rob
Why?
China is not going to sit by idly.
May saner minds always privail.
Actually, I think China in the early to mid-90s is too isolated and weak to intervene in Korea. It's getting over its post-Tiananmen isolation, recently recommitted to economic reform and global trade, and has no defense treaty with Russia as back-up. The US is highly superior on both the conventional and nuclear levels.

For periods before or after that, yeah, China could well decide sitting idly by cannot work for them.
Rob
2017-10-15 23:07:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rob
Post by Yusuf B Gursey
Post by Rob
What if George Bush the Elder were reelected President in 1992.
PoD is somehow Tom Harkin, Paul Tsongas or Jesse Jackson are the Democratic
nominee and they lose the general to Bush and to Perot. Even if Bush does not
win a plurality of votes over Perot, let's suppose he wins the electoral
college.
The result of him getting a second term is frankly what I am more interested
in then the process of him getting there.
How will Bush's 2nd term go? In particular, his foreign policy?
When the North Korean nuclear development program is discovered (I assume on
OTL's schedule), how does the Bush Administration resolve it?
a) A deal along the lines of the Clinton Agreed Framework
b) A "miracle deal" that stops the North Korean program on nukes and
long-range missiles cold
c) A Korean war involving US destruction of North Korean missile and
nuke facilities
d) A Korean war concluding with regime
change and Korean unification under the south
e) A Korean War that turns into a Sino-American War
e) is a consequence of c) or d)
Something we should all keep in mind.
Post by Rob
Why?
China is not going to sit by idly.
May saner minds always privail.
Actually, I think China in the early to mid-90s is too isolated and weak to intervene in Korea. It's getting over its post-Tiananmen isolation, recently recommitted to economic reform and global trade, and has no defense treaty with Russia as back-up. The US is highly superior on both the conventional and nuclear levels.
For periods before or after that, yeah, China could well decide sitting idly by cannot work for them.
To add to that point, I think the North Koreans of the early and mid-1980s would agree with me that Chinese intervention on their behalf could be unlikely. The North Korean nuclear weapons quest makes a lot more sense if they assume they won't have allies to backstop them.
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