Discussion:
Brave New World
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JennyB
2017-07-29 09:20:31 UTC
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At the dawn of the 19th century, ASBs cut off all shipping from the Old World to the New. The cause is never discovered: no ship that goes to investigate every returns. Nothing beyond Greenland in the East and Hawaii in the West is accessible from the Americas.

How do the various colonies and new states cope lack of overseas markets and future immigration?
Rich Rostrom
2017-07-30 00:52:46 UTC
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Post by JennyB
At the dawn of the 19th century, ASBs cut off all
shipping from the Old World to the New. The cause is
never discovered: no ship that goes to investigate
ever returns. Nothing beyond Greenland in the East
and Hawaii in the West is accessible from the Americas.
How do the various colonies and new states cope lack
of overseas markets and future immigration?
The Spanish colonies devolve into independent states,
as does Brazil.

The West Indies: Haiti (and Santo Domingo) are under
the control of L'Ouverture's ex-slave government.
This example may spark slave insurrections throughout
the islands, which I think were all majority slave,
except perhaps Cuba.

With no support from the home countries, I doubt if
the planters can effectively resist. Haiti may support
rebellions on other islands. Successful rebellions
will send refugees to the US, I think. American
Southerners may call for the US to "restore order" in
the slave colonies.

The US will absorb Florida and Louisiana; after a few
years, Upper and Lower Canada, Nova Scotia, New
Brunswick, and Newfoundland probably join as well.

The US may acquire Bermuda and the Bahamas.

The loss of foreign trade will hit New England and
the West Indies very hard; it will also erase the
fur trade.

Population growth will be slower. With no foreign
trade, urbanization will slow (the major cities
of the time were all ports.) OTOH, industry will
get a boost from want of competition.
--
The real Velvet Revolution - and the would-be hijacker.

http://originalvelvetrevolution.com
JennyB
2017-07-30 17:45:40 UTC
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Looking at the figures, it seems I massively overestimated the contribution of immigration to population growth. I was hoping perhaps for some indigenous states to form, but it looks like westward pressure will be not that much less than OTL And what is it with USAians always wanting to take over Canada? It'seems cold and full of Frenchies.

It's almost steam engine time: Oliver Evans will still invent his high-pressure engine, but is there something else that will be delayed or not develop at all because of the relatively weak industrial base? Can the New World at this stage bootstrap itself to modernity?
jerry kraus
2017-07-31 13:53:39 UTC
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Post by JennyB
Looking at the figures, it seems I massively overestimated the contribution of immigration to population growth. I was hoping perhaps for some indigenous states to form, but it looks like westward pressure will be not that much less than OTL And what is it with USAians always wanting to take over Canada? It'seems cold and full of Frenchies.
It's almost steam engine time: Oliver Evans will still invent his high-pressure engine, but is there something else that will be delayed or not develop at all because of the relatively weak industrial base? Can the New World at this stage bootstrap itself to modernity?
Jenny, I think it's instructive to simply look at what happened in the New World prior to its "discovery" by Columbus. It was certainly centuries, and probably millennia behind the Old World. I tend to attribute this simply to the fact that the Western Hemisphere is actually much smaller in land area than the Old World. So, I would tend to think that reintroducing the isolation of the two Hemispheres in the nineteenth century would simply reintroduce this tendency. So, the New World begins once again to lag well behind the Old World. But, the Old World suffers as well, because its horizons have once more been contracted.

I would predict most of the enormous scientific and technological progress in the nineteenth century simply does not occur. Child mortality continues to be around 70%. Human society does not significantly advance, and, we continue to be living in a more or less eighteenth century society, to the present day.
Insane Ranter
2017-08-04 03:46:28 UTC
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Post by jerry kraus
Jenny, I think it's instructive to simply look at what happened in the New World prior to its "discovery" by Columbus. It was certainly centuries, and probably millennia behind the Old World.
Except you have "Old Worlders" in the New World at 1800. I assume dawn of 19th century is the 1800.

USA would just need to figure out something else to sell then cotton/textiles to South America. There were already steam engines running pre-1800 in the USA.

ehhh.. bedtime. maybe more tomorrow.
jerry kraus
2017-08-04 13:14:34 UTC
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Post by Insane Ranter
Post by jerry kraus
Jenny, I think it's instructive to simply look at what happened in the New World prior to its "discovery" by Columbus. It was certainly centuries, and probably millennia behind the Old World.
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Post by Insane Ranter
Except you have "Old Worlders" in the New World at 1800. I assume dawn of 19th century is the 1800.
Isolate an American, even one whose forefathers came from Britain, he's just as stupid as anyone else. We're social animals, we need a large, complex social environment in which to thrive.
Post by Insane Ranter
USA would just need to figure out something else to sell then cotton/textiles to South America. There were already steam engines running pre-1800 in the USA.
Well, there were some steam powered factory machines. No steam powered locomotives. But I wonder if progress doesn't stop dead at this point, or even reverse itself, without the Old World to provide informational input and Capital.
Post by Insane Ranter
ehhh.. bedtime. maybe more tomorrow.
Rob
2017-08-05 16:17:02 UTC
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Post by JennyB
Looking at the figures, it seems I massively overestimated the contribution of immigration to population growth.
The demographics will still be interesting. With land and food plentiful, yes, the natural increase in population growth will still be quite large.

However, the composition will be different. Without additional migration from Europe, in the 20th century, North America and the southern cone of South America will be less "Caucasian" with African and native descendants being a higher proportion of the population. If North America develops to the point where it needs to import cheaper labor, after the supply of French Canadians is tapped out, the only foreign labor sources available are black and latino from the Caribbean and Latin America. So a less white North America.

Sure- importing people from Africa will not be possible either, but for North America and the British territories, only 7 years of slave trade will be missed. Even with the somewhat larger transatlantic slave trade to Brazil and Cuba cut off early and stopping in-migration of Africans, lack of immigration is king to disproportionately decrease immigration increase in the Caucasian, and most starkly, Asian, populations in the Americas.
Post by JennyB
I was hoping perhaps for some indigenous states to form, but it looks like westward pressure will be not that much less than OTL
---Agree. There's a small chance that some reservations would be larger, but true, independent indigenous states? Not happening in North or South America. Maybe more of the hired cowhands for ranchers are natives.
Post by JennyB
And what is it with USAians always wanting to take over Canada? It'seems cold and full of Frenchies.
Agreed, US interest will be focused on the strategic directions of New Orleans and the Pacific Coast.

Without access to migration from the British Isles and Europe, Canada will have larger share of its population as French and native descended.

Political relations between Canada and the USA could vary.

Attempts to acquire Canadian territory could be opposed by southern states or only accepted to "balance" expansion in the old and new southwest.

Nevertheless, there could be voluntary federation between eventually between the Canada's and the US.

US expansion at the expense of Canada would probably be limited to the margins, i.e., northern Maine, the York peninsula, Oregon Country.
Post by JennyB
It's almost steam engine time: Oliver Evans will still invent his high-pressure engine, but is there something else that will be delayed or not develop at all because of the relatively weak industrial base? Can the New World at this stage bootstrap itself to modernity?
Well, new inventions and inventors and advances in basic science will come about more slowly with the New World cut off. Also, lack of competition will lead to less pressure to update methods of manufacture.

However, the demand of the hemisphere for goods formerly provided by the eastern hemisphere will greatly increase manufacturing demand and output, using 18th century technology, with New England and the Mid-Atlantic states being the most industrially developed, followed probably by central Mexico and Peru.

Also, while pure sophistication of tech will increase less, labor shortages in the Americas will lead to fairly easy acceptance of labor-saving devices by workers.

--

Even more than a cutting off of the slave trade, and successful slave revolts in more Caribbean islands, the loss of European and world markets will knock development of plantation economies off the rails.

There simply is less demand for cotton, even though there will be some grown to supply mills in New England. This eases pressure for expansion within the south, as the soil is worn out more slowly. Southern plantations are more diverse, breeding livestock and growing grain in addition to cotton and tobacco. However, possibly the loss of more Caribbean sugar islands to slave rebellions increases the importance of Louisiana and Florida and Brazilian grown and processed sugar. On the other hand, on some islands, black strongmen could probably establish dictatorial power and force resumption of sugar production for export.

South America won't be supplying a breakneck demand for coffee, cowhides and beef, slower expansion of ranches and plantations there.

---Actually even more interesting than the consequences for a cut-off America is the consequences for an Old World that has no emigration outlet or source of produce in the New World.

Muhammad Ali in Egypt and the BEIC will be the kings of cotton. Perhaps Ottoman Iraq or southern Persia become big cotton lands. But supply limitations will still depress cotton textile output and lead to more diversity of fabrics and continued use of woolens and linens.

Lack of a New World emigration outlet and emigrant remittances leads to several potential outcomes in Europe: 1. greater population density and lower standard of living, 2. more birth control in crowded conditions. 3. more urbanization in areas that saw very high proportionate emigration like Ireland, Norway and Sicily. 4. Larger armies and possibly more major wars in Europe through the 19th century.

South Africa, Australia and New Zealand and Russian Siberia/Far East can be an alternate destination for many would-be European emigrants, but they would probably hit the limits of their carrying capacity earlier.
Rich Rostrom
2017-08-06 07:28:55 UTC
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On Sunday, July 30, 2017 at 1:45:43 PM UTC-4, JennyB
Post by JennyB
Looking at the figures, it seems I massively
overestimated the contribution of immigration to
population growth.
The demographics will still be interesting. With
land and food plentiful, yes, the natural increase
in population growth will still be quite large.
However, the composition will be different. Without
additional migration from Europe, in the 20th
century, North America and the southern cone of
South America will be less "Caucasian" with African
and native descendants being a higher proportion of
the population.
As will many the rest of Central America and the
Caribbean. There was considerable European immigration
to for instance Venezuela (also Middle Eastern; consider
that one of the leaders of the Venezuelan opposition
is Hector Capriles Radonski, and that Tareck El Aissami
is Vice President). Also Mexico - note the last name of
Selma Hayek. This is in addition to the many Spanish
immigrants to post-colonial Latin America.
to disproportionately decrease
immigration increase in the Caucasian, and most
starkly, Asian, populations in the Americas.
To _almost_ zero... There were some Filipinos in Spanish
Louisiana, for some reason.
Political relations between Canada and the USA could vary.
At this time, there is no "Canada" - there are separate
colonies of Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick,
Prince Edward Island, Upper Canada, Lower Canada, and
Rupert's Land.

With the cut-off of Great Britain, these colonies will
become self-governing, and may consider federating, or
just joining the US. Upper Canada is I think very
thinly settled. Lower Canada is restive; the francophone
majority is not happy with anglophone domination. If
Lower Canada decides to join the U.S., Upper Canada
won't have much choice.

In the longer term... the domination of the Canadas by
Loyalist oligarchies eventually provoked rebellion. If
there is no Britain, ISTM very likely that such
rebellions would succeed, and be followed by union with
the US.

Rupert's Land will be abandoned; that is, the Hudson's
Bay Co. trading posts have no support or business.

In fact, there's another major change - the fur trade
dies everywhere.
However, possibly the loss of more
Caribbean sugar islands to slave rebellions
increases the importance of Louisiana and Florida
and Brazilian grown and processed sugar. On the
other hand, on some islands, black strongmen could
probably establish dictatorial power and force
resumption of sugar production for export.
The demand for sugar will crash, with the loss of
European markets. Louisiana's production will be
enough to fill US domestic demand; any additional
demond will be filled by residual production in the
West Indies. I doubt if anyone will bother shipping
sugar from Brazil to North America.
--
The real Velvet Revolution - and the would-be hijacker.

http://originalvelvetrevolution.com
The Horny Goat
2017-08-06 14:31:16 UTC
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On Sun, 06 Aug 2017 02:28:55 -0500, Rich Rostrom
Post by Rich Rostrom
With the cut-off of Great Britain, these colonies will
become self-governing, and may consider federating, or
just joining the US. Upper Canada is I think very
thinly settled. Lower Canada is restive; the francophone
majority is not happy with anglophone domination. If
Lower Canada decides to join the U.S., Upper Canada
won't have much choice.
True - but in OTL the whole timing of Canadian confederation was that
at the time of the founding conferences (1862-64) the United States
had more pressing concerns elsewhere though the realization that the
war would soon be over definitely motivated the Canadian Fathers to
get the deal done earlier.

The timing of the isolation is significant - a major factor in the war
of 1812 for Canada was the fact that roughly 1/3 the farmers in
southern Ontario were ex-Americans due to the fact the British had
been charging about 1/3 America's price to settlers seeking land.
While settlers had to swear to the King it was questionable how loyal
these settlers might be in case of an American invasion.

That was pretty much a continuous process from about 1785 through 1812
so as I say the timing of the great isolation is important.

How strict is the isolation to be? Does North America hear news of
Europe? In other words in OTL railways in America closely followed the
first British ralways - but do they know steam power is possible with
the isolation? To me when the railways get built is pretty important.
JennyB
2017-08-06 15:27:01 UTC
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Post by The Horny Goat
The timing of the isolation is significant - a major factor in the war
of 1812 for Canada was the fact that roughly 1/3 the farmers in
southern Ontario were ex-Americans due to the fact the British had
been charging about 1/3 America's price to settlers seeking land.
While settlers had to swear to the King it was questionable how loyal
these settlers might be in case of an American invasion.
That was pretty much a continuous process from about 1785 through 1812
so as I say the timing of the great isolation is important.
The timing, to be precise, is 12 am on January 1 1801. At that point, any ship travelling from the Old World and not already apparent on the horizon fails to arrive.I chose because the NEW World seemed advanced enough to (possibly) develop on its own technologically, and it was easier to enforce isolation while it still took a month of more to communicate, pre-telegraph.
Post by The Horny Goat
How strict is the isolation to be? Does North America hear news of
Europe? In other words in OTL railways in America closely followed the
first British ralways - but do they know steam power is possible with
the isolation? To me when the railways get built is pretty important.
No news, since at this time news requires human contact. The cause of the isolation is never discovered, and after some years it is accepted that somehow the world the other side of the ocean has simply ceased to exist.

Railways are interesting. The New Worlders will undoubtedly hit on the idea of a locomotive, but can they develop the technology to make it practical? I'm thinking in particular of wrought iron rails, still several years in the future. Perhaps steam will be limited to stationary engines, and locomotion to cable-cars.
The Horny Goat
2017-08-06 17:29:19 UTC
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On Sun, 6 Aug 2017 08:27:01 -0700 (PDT), JennyB
Post by The Horny Goat
How strict is the isolation to be? Does North America hear news of
Europe? In other words in OTL railways in America closely followed the
first British ralways - but do they know steam power is possible with
the isolation? To me when the railways get built is pretty important.
No news, since at this time news requires human contact. The cause of the i=
solation is never discovered, and after some years it is accepted that some=
how the world the other side of the ocean has simply ceased to exist.
My thinking was basically that a huge boost to a technological advance
is knowing that it's been done elsewhere thus my question.
JennyB
2017-08-06 17:43:35 UTC
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Post by The Horny Goat
On Sun, 6 Aug 2017 08:27:01 -0700 (PDT), JennyB
Post by The Horny Goat
How strict is the isolation to be? Does North America hear news of
Europe? In other words in OTL railways in America closely followed the
first British ralways - but do they know steam power is possible with
the isolation? To me when the railways get built is pretty important.
No news, since at this time news requires human contact. The cause of the i=
solation is never discovered, and after some years it is accepted that some=
how the world the other side of the ocean has simply ceased to exist.
My thinking was basically that a huge boost to a technological advance
is knowing that it's been done elsewhere thus my question.
Of course, and in this case I think the idea of the locomotive will appear independently and probably about the same time, because it's a combination of existing ideas (Evans' engine and trackways) but the execution may be differeent.
Dimensional Traveler
2017-08-06 19:18:20 UTC
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Post by JennyB
Post by The Horny Goat
On Sun, 6 Aug 2017 08:27:01 -0700 (PDT), JennyB
Post by The Horny Goat
How strict is the isolation to be? Does North America hear news of
Europe? In other words in OTL railways in America closely followed the
first British ralways - but do they know steam power is possible with
the isolation? To me when the railways get built is pretty important.
No news, since at this time news requires human contact. The cause of the i=
solation is never discovered, and after some years it is accepted that some=
how the world the other side of the ocean has simply ceased to exist.
My thinking was basically that a huge boost to a technological advance
is knowing that it's been done elsewhere thus my question.
Of course, and in this case I think the idea of the locomotive will appear independently and probably about the same time, because it's a
combination of existing ideas (Evans' engine and trackways) but the execution may be differeent.
Out of curiosity, in what way(s)?
--
Inquiring minds want to know while minds with a self-preservation
instinct are running screaming.
JennyB
2017-08-06 19:37:43 UTC
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Post by Dimensional Traveler
Post by JennyB
Post by The Horny Goat
On Sun, 6 Aug 2017 08:27:01 -0700 (PDT), JennyB
Post by The Horny Goat
How strict is the isolation to be? Does North America hear news of
Europe? In other words in OTL railways in America closely followed the
first British ralways - but do they know steam power is possible with
the isolation? To me when the railways get built is pretty important.
No news, since at this time news requires human contact. The cause of the i=
solation is never discovered, and after some years it is accepted that some=
how the world the other side of the ocean has simply ceased to exist.
My thinking was basically that a huge boost to a technological advance
is knowing that it's been done elsewhere thus my question.
Of course, and in this case I think the idea of the locomotive will appear independently and probably about the same time, because it's a
combination of existing ideas (Evans' engine and trackways) but the execution may be differeent.
Out of curiosity, in what way(s)?
--
Inquiring minds want to know while minds with a self-preservation
instinct are running screaming.
If I remember right, a big problem of early locomotion was cast iron railas cracking. Maybe the New Worlders assume that only a ligther loading is possible, leading to different solutions. Cable-cars? Wind wagons on rails?
Dimensional Traveler
2017-08-06 22:29:26 UTC
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Post by Dimensional Traveler
Post by JennyB
Post by The Horny Goat
On Sun, 6 Aug 2017 08:27:01 -0700 (PDT), JennyB
Post by The Horny Goat
How strict is the isolation to be? Does North America hear news of
Europe? In other words in OTL railways in America closely followed the
first British ralways - but do they know steam power is possible with
the isolation? To me when the railways get built is pretty important.
No news, since at this time news requires human contact. The cause of the i=
solation is never discovered, and after some years it is accepted that some=
how the world the other side of the ocean has simply ceased to exist.
My thinking was basically that a huge boost to a technological advance
is knowing that it's been done elsewhere thus my question.
Of course, and in this case I think the idea of the locomotive will appear independently and probably about the same time, because it's a
combination of existing ideas (Evans' engine and trackways) but the execution may be differeent.
Out of curiosity, in what way(s)?
If I remember right, a big problem of early locomotion was cast iron rails cracking. Maybe the New Worlders assume that only a lighter
loading is possible, leading to different solutions. Cable-cars? Wind wagons on rails?
Some early rails were wooden with iron plating on top. I suspect they
could handle the loads pullable by early steam engines and as the
quality of iron production and eventually steel improves it won't be an
issue. I'm not sure how cable-cars would work over the distances
involved in North America and I suspect draft animal pulled trains would
be able to pull heavier loads than wind wagons.
--
Inquiring minds want to know while minds with a self-preservation
instinct are running screaming.
pyotr filipivich
2017-08-07 19:44:58 UTC
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Post by Dimensional Traveler
If I remember right, a big problem of early locomotion was cast iron rails cracking. Maybe the New Worlders assume that only a lighter
loading is possible, leading to different solutions. Cable-cars? Wind wagons on rails?
Some early rails were wooden with iron plating on top. I suspect they
could handle the loads pullable by early steam engines and as the
quality of iron production and eventually steel improves it won't be an
issue. I'm not sure how cable-cars would work over the distances
involved in North America and I suspect draft animal pulled trains would
be able to pull heavier loads than wind wagons.
It also might be possible to make a steam tractor & wagon
combination which did not run on rails, but over a road.
--
pyotr filipivich.
For Sale: Uncirculated Roman Drachmas, feature Julius Ceaser's Portrait,
several dated 44 BCE. Comes with Certificate of Authenticity.
Dimensional Traveler
2017-08-07 20:59:02 UTC
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Post by pyotr filipivich
Post by Dimensional Traveler
If I remember right, a big problem of early locomotion was cast iron rails cracking. Maybe the New Worlders assume that only a lighter
loading is possible, leading to different solutions. Cable-cars? Wind wagons on rails?
Some early rails were wooden with iron plating on top. I suspect they
could handle the loads pullable by early steam engines and as the
quality of iron production and eventually steel improves it won't be an
issue. I'm not sure how cable-cars would work over the distances
involved in North America and I suspect draft animal pulled trains would
be able to pull heavier loads than wind wagons.
It also might be possible to make a steam tractor & wagon
combination which did not run on rails, but over a road.
You mean in the mud? :)
--
Inquiring minds want to know while minds with a self-preservation
instinct are running screaming.
pyotr filipivich
2017-08-08 21:17:50 UTC
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Post by Dimensional Traveler
Post by pyotr filipivich
Post by Dimensional Traveler
If I remember right, a big problem of early locomotion was cast iron rails cracking. Maybe the New Worlders assume that only a lighter
loading is possible, leading to different solutions. Cable-cars? Wind wagons on rails?
Some early rails were wooden with iron plating on top. I suspect they
could handle the loads pullable by early steam engines and as the
quality of iron production and eventually steel improves it won't be an
issue. I'm not sure how cable-cars would work over the distances
involved in North America and I suspect draft animal pulled trains would
be able to pull heavier loads than wind wagons.
It also might be possible to make a steam tractor & wagon
combination which did not run on rails, but over a road.
You mean in the mud? :)
Considering that steam tractors were used to pull plows - depends
on the mud. is it gumbo, slug snot, or chunky?

In some parts of the world - when the Mud Season started, travel
stopped till after the mud either dried or froze. changing the
propulsion source doesn't end that - figuring out how to "pave" a road
through the mud solves that.
--
pyotr filipivich.
For Sale: Uncirculated Roman Drachmas, feature Julius Ceaser's Portrait,
several dated 44 BCE. Comes with Certificate of Authenticity.
Dimensional Traveler
2017-08-08 21:22:21 UTC
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Post by pyotr filipivich
Post by Dimensional Traveler
Post by pyotr filipivich
Post by Dimensional Traveler
If I remember right, a big problem of early locomotion was cast iron rails cracking. Maybe the New Worlders assume that only a lighter
loading is possible, leading to different solutions. Cable-cars? Wind wagons on rails?
Some early rails were wooden with iron plating on top. I suspect they
could handle the loads pullable by early steam engines and as the
quality of iron production and eventually steel improves it won't be an
issue. I'm not sure how cable-cars would work over the distances
involved in North America and I suspect draft animal pulled trains would
be able to pull heavier loads than wind wagons.
It also might be possible to make a steam tractor & wagon
combination which did not run on rails, but over a road.
You mean in the mud? :)
Considering that steam tractors were used to pull plows - depends
on the mud. is it gumbo, slug snot, or chunky?
In some parts of the world - when the Mud Season started, travel
stopped till after the mud either dried or froze. changing the
propulsion source doesn't end that - figuring out how to "pave" a road
through the mud solves that.
Which is what the "rails" in "railroad" were for. :) There's also the
matter of steam tractors not moving very fast, making them not viable
for long distance transport.
--
Inquiring minds want to know while minds with a self-preservation
instinct are running screaming.
The Horny Goat
2017-08-08 23:47:56 UTC
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On Tue, 08 Aug 2017 14:17:50 -0700, pyotr filipivich
Post by pyotr filipivich
Considering that steam tractors were used to pull plows - depends
on the mud. is it gumbo, slug snot, or chunky?
In some parts of the world - when the Mud Season started, travel
stopped till after the mud either dried or froze. changing the
propulsion source doesn't end that - figuring out how to "pave" a road
through the mud solves that.
Sounds like you're talking about the construction of the Alaska
Highway in 1942-43. Gravel road built nearly 1500 miles through the
middle of nowhere all of which proved completely unnecessary after
Midway even though the Japanese held 2 of the Aleutian islands till
late 1943.

They lost entire tractors in the muck in the spring of 1943 which
matches nicely with the Russians losing one or more train cars in the
bog around Lake Ladoga in the spring of 42/43 shortly before they
regained the southern shore of Lake Ladoga and achieved a land link to
Leningrad.

From the books I've read the battle for that 2 x 10 mile strip was one
of the most hard-fought during the entire war in the east.

Unlike the Alaska highway (which was taking place around the same
time) the battle for the Ladoga shore was hugely important and it
would be a rare soldier that didn't fully understand what was at
stake.

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