David Tenner
2008-08-17 17:47:46 UTC
We have discussed all sorts of scenarios for Henry Clay to become
President--1824 (if only he had gotten enough electoral votes to be
eligible for consideration by the House), 1832 (very unlikely, especially
with the Anti-Masons splitting the anti-Jackson vote), 1840 (had the 1839
Whig national convention selected him), 1844 of course (did Clay hedge too
much on Texas? did the Liberty Party vote cost him New York? would a
stronger running mate than Frelinghuysen have made a difference? what if
Silas Wright didn't agree to run for governor of New York? what if fewer
foreigners had been illegally naturalized in time for the election? etc.),
and even 1848 (when, if Clay had gotten the nomination, Van Buren's third
party candidacy would almost have guaranteed Clay the New York electoral
votes he had so narrowly lost in 1844).
However, there is one other scenario, which would involve Clay becoming
President without having won a single electoral vote. It relates to the
few months in 1813 when both President Madison and Vice-President Gerry
had serious health problems, and there was no President Pro Tempore of the
Senate, leaving Clay (as Speaker of the House) next in the line of
succession after Gerry. [1]
"Elbridge Gerry found it increasingly difficult to remain impartial in
such a highly charged atmosphere, especially after Madison became
seriously ill in mid-June 1813. Gerry, himself, was in poor health. He had
recently suffered a 'stroke,' and old age had so withered his slight
physique that one observer likened his appearance to that of a 'scant-
patterned old skeleton of a French Barber.' The March 1, 1792, act which
at that time governed the presidential succession provided that if the
president and the vice president died in office--a development that many
considered possible, if not imminent, during the summer of 1813--the
president pro tempore of the Senate would serve as president. And if Gerry
left the Senate before Congress adjourned, as all of his predecessors had
done to allow election of a president pro tempore, anti-administration
forces might combine to elect an individual hostile to Madison's agenda.
One Federalist editor had already suggested New York Federalist Senator
Rufus King as a possible successor, while Secretary of State James Monroe
warned that disaffected Senate Republicans had 'begun to make
calculations, and plans, founded on the presumed death of the President
and Vice-President, and it has been suggested to me that [Virginia Senator
William Branch] Giles is thought of to take the place of the President of
the Senate.'
"But if Gerry remained in the chair, and if he survived until the end of
the session, the person next in the line of succession would be Speaker of
the House Henry Clay, an outspoken 'warhawk.' Breaking with the precedent
established by John Adams, Gerry therefore refused to vacate the chair,
presiding over the Senate until the first session of the Thirteenth
Congress adjourned on August 2, 1813. '[S]everal gentlemen of the Senate
had intimated a wish that he would retire from the Chair two or three
weeks before the time of adjournment, and would thus give to the Senate an
opportunity for choosing a President pro tempore,' he later explained, but
'other gentlemen expressed a contrary desire, and thought that the
President should remain in the Chair, and adjourn the Senate.' Gerry
ultimately decided that, as 'a war existed and had produced a special
session of Congress,' he was 'differently circumstanced from any of his
predecessors, and was under an obligation to remain in the Chair until the
important business of the session was finished.' (Decades later, in March
1890, the Senate established the current practice of having presidents pro
tempore hold office continuously until the election of another president
pro tempore, rather than serving only during the absence of a vice
president.)
"With the presidential succession safe and Madison's physical condition
much improved by the time the Senate adjourned, Gerry was free to return
home. He was absent when the second session of the Thirteenth Congress
convened in December and did not return to Washington until early February
1814..."
http://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/generic/VP_Elbridge_Gerry.htm
So let's say that sometime during the summer of 1813 Madison dies of
malaria and Gerry, shocked by the news (news can be shocking even when it
is not really surprising) has another stroke--this time a fatal one--
before the Senate can elect a President Pro Tempore. (We could even have
Madison have a relapse *after* the Senate's August adjournment.) In the
midst of a war that is not going terribly well for the United States,
Speaker Clay (who had loyally supported Madison in 1812 but had since
reluctantly concluded that Madison was "wholly unfit for the storms of
War") becomes President (or at least "Acting President") at the age of 36.
What then?
[1] We have discussed the possibility of Madison dying in 1813
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.history.what-if/msg/079cc5a7de01beed
but not, AFAIK, of Clay *immediately* succeeding him.
President--1824 (if only he had gotten enough electoral votes to be
eligible for consideration by the House), 1832 (very unlikely, especially
with the Anti-Masons splitting the anti-Jackson vote), 1840 (had the 1839
Whig national convention selected him), 1844 of course (did Clay hedge too
much on Texas? did the Liberty Party vote cost him New York? would a
stronger running mate than Frelinghuysen have made a difference? what if
Silas Wright didn't agree to run for governor of New York? what if fewer
foreigners had been illegally naturalized in time for the election? etc.),
and even 1848 (when, if Clay had gotten the nomination, Van Buren's third
party candidacy would almost have guaranteed Clay the New York electoral
votes he had so narrowly lost in 1844).
However, there is one other scenario, which would involve Clay becoming
President without having won a single electoral vote. It relates to the
few months in 1813 when both President Madison and Vice-President Gerry
had serious health problems, and there was no President Pro Tempore of the
Senate, leaving Clay (as Speaker of the House) next in the line of
succession after Gerry. [1]
"Elbridge Gerry found it increasingly difficult to remain impartial in
such a highly charged atmosphere, especially after Madison became
seriously ill in mid-June 1813. Gerry, himself, was in poor health. He had
recently suffered a 'stroke,' and old age had so withered his slight
physique that one observer likened his appearance to that of a 'scant-
patterned old skeleton of a French Barber.' The March 1, 1792, act which
at that time governed the presidential succession provided that if the
president and the vice president died in office--a development that many
considered possible, if not imminent, during the summer of 1813--the
president pro tempore of the Senate would serve as president. And if Gerry
left the Senate before Congress adjourned, as all of his predecessors had
done to allow election of a president pro tempore, anti-administration
forces might combine to elect an individual hostile to Madison's agenda.
One Federalist editor had already suggested New York Federalist Senator
Rufus King as a possible successor, while Secretary of State James Monroe
warned that disaffected Senate Republicans had 'begun to make
calculations, and plans, founded on the presumed death of the President
and Vice-President, and it has been suggested to me that [Virginia Senator
William Branch] Giles is thought of to take the place of the President of
the Senate.'
"But if Gerry remained in the chair, and if he survived until the end of
the session, the person next in the line of succession would be Speaker of
the House Henry Clay, an outspoken 'warhawk.' Breaking with the precedent
established by John Adams, Gerry therefore refused to vacate the chair,
presiding over the Senate until the first session of the Thirteenth
Congress adjourned on August 2, 1813. '[S]everal gentlemen of the Senate
had intimated a wish that he would retire from the Chair two or three
weeks before the time of adjournment, and would thus give to the Senate an
opportunity for choosing a President pro tempore,' he later explained, but
'other gentlemen expressed a contrary desire, and thought that the
President should remain in the Chair, and adjourn the Senate.' Gerry
ultimately decided that, as 'a war existed and had produced a special
session of Congress,' he was 'differently circumstanced from any of his
predecessors, and was under an obligation to remain in the Chair until the
important business of the session was finished.' (Decades later, in March
1890, the Senate established the current practice of having presidents pro
tempore hold office continuously until the election of another president
pro tempore, rather than serving only during the absence of a vice
president.)
"With the presidential succession safe and Madison's physical condition
much improved by the time the Senate adjourned, Gerry was free to return
home. He was absent when the second session of the Thirteenth Congress
convened in December and did not return to Washington until early February
1814..."
http://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/generic/VP_Elbridge_Gerry.htm
So let's say that sometime during the summer of 1813 Madison dies of
malaria and Gerry, shocked by the news (news can be shocking even when it
is not really surprising) has another stroke--this time a fatal one--
before the Senate can elect a President Pro Tempore. (We could even have
Madison have a relapse *after* the Senate's August adjournment.) In the
midst of a war that is not going terribly well for the United States,
Speaker Clay (who had loyally supported Madison in 1812 but had since
reluctantly concluded that Madison was "wholly unfit for the storms of
War") becomes President (or at least "Acting President") at the age of 36.
What then?
[1] We have discussed the possibility of Madison dying in 1813
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.history.what-if/msg/079cc5a7de01beed
but not, AFAIK, of Clay *immediately* succeeding him.
--
David Tenner
***@ameritech.net
David Tenner
***@ameritech.net