On Wed, 25 Apr 2018 17:18:21 -0500, Rich Rostrom
Post by Rich Rostrom Post by The Horny Goat
All of the stuff you mention ONLY comes into play if
Germany capitulates before attacking the Soviets.
If France doesn't fall, Germany is not going
to attack the USSR. Therefore,
"Germany capitulates before attacking the Soviets"
is not an additional condition.
Well yes and no - I was deliberately cagey with my wording because if
France doesn't fall to Germany there is a more than negligible chance
that Russia might attack Germany not vice versa.
Now if this happened in 1941 (or in 1942 with Russia not involved in
military action in 1941) in my opinion this is a very bad move by
Stalin as if we assume a WW1 style static front in the west then (1)
Germany has fewer troops in the east than in OTL BUT (2) the Red Army
is not significantly higher in quality than it was at the Winter War.
On the other hand, OTL's Wehrmacht had most of the supply line for the
panzer divisions on captured French and Czech vehicles (which wouldn't
be available in nearly the numbers that were available after the fall
of France) while on the other hand most of the new equipment the Red
Army had wasn't available until Aug-Sept 1941 and a lot of that was
rushed earlier than it should have been due to early disasters.
A A Vlasov WASN'T initially a German mole - he was a distinguished
Soviet officer forced into a premature attack near Leningrad in early
1942 which turned out to be a Soviet disaster since the reserves WERE
NOT THERE to support the Soviet offensive with the result that
Vlasov's army was captured (including him) and he was wined and dined
until he 'came over' to the Germans.
In my opinion even without a fall of France in 1940, a Soviet attack
in 1939-40 on German positions in Poland would have led to a nasty war
of attrition that would not have ended well for Russia.
That doesn't mean a Nazi "Astrakhan - Murmansk line or a line 1000km
east of the proverbial Astrakhan-Aurea side but I would think it would
be more to the advantage of Germany than Russia - and one has to
question how much American and British aid they could count on if they
themselves had attacked first especcially if they had previously taken
part in a partition of Poland!
(Uh yes I have wargamed this and if the Soviets do not quickly
disengage and quickly retreat they get chopped to pieces by a
qualitatively superior German force and then lose the territory they
neede to retreat from anyways.
A Soviet 1940-41 victory that brings them to the 1919-39 German /
Polish boundary is not rmeotely in the cards!