Post by The Old Man Post by Don Phillipson Post by WolfBear
If Italy remains neutral in WWI, does Austria-Hungary make a separate peace in 1917?
A separate Austrian peace would have interrupted the land
(railway) connection between German industry and the Turkish
active fronts. German commanders were anxious to keep Turkey
in the war, so that opposing British and Russian forces remained
unavailable for the war in Europe: so Germany would have been
likely to coerce Austria to keep going and not attempt an armistice.
By the same token, with a neutral Italy, Austria might well have sued for peace at that time. Their army was pretty much in shambles, the country was about twenty minutes from dissolution and generally in chaos. With a separate peace, they might have been able to regroup a bit and keep the ruling family, at least enough to transfer power to a constitutional monarchy. They probably would have had to let Hungary go its own way and make some territorial concessions to their opponents though.
However, even with the above thoughts, the royalty MIGHT have gone toes up by the early twenties when the various treaties were hammered out. I say might because if they did call it quits and thusly disrupt the Germany-Ottoman Empire connection, that front would have collapsed more quickly and things might have gone differently for the Allies. As a result, Austria might have been allowed to keep its royalty intact.
Italy declared war on Austria-Hungary on May 23, 1915,
then the Ottoman Empire on August 21, 1915, then
Bulgaria on October 19, 1915, then the German Empire
on August 28, 1916.
There was a year and a half after the POD of May 23
before 1917 where Austria-Hungary might have dropped
The United States did not enter the war until April 2,
The February and October revolutions in Russia happened
in 1917, however the treaty of Brest-Litovsk was signed
on March 3, 1918.
Either way, enough happened in 1917 that it is hard to
say if the part of 1917 for the possible effect might
If you go back to 1916 and AH dropping out then, one
possibility would be for it to happen as a deal involving
the peace negotiations going on at that time.
Has there ever been many threads on what would have happened
if the peace negotiations on the part of the U.S. in 1916
were successful with all of WWI ending in 1916?
What further might have been needed for peace to have happened
in 1916? Was it very unlikely or was it actually quite feasible?