Alex Milman
2017-09-08 17:46:49 UTC
What if French Revolution happens but there are no Revolutionary Wars?
Leopold II comes to a cynical conclusion that a fate of his sister and her
family does not worth a major war and that the ongoing events are French
internal business and Frederick William II of Prussia concurs so there is no Declaration of Pillnitz as a triggering point. OTOH, unlike OTL French
republican government manages to keep revolutionary rhetoric under control
limiting it strictly to France and the issues French.
The 1st Coalition did not happen, French Republic did not start its military
buildup followed by the aggressive campaigns.
How likely the Reign of Terror would be without the OTL hysteria of "they are
trying to get us!"? On their own the aristocrats would not look as dangerous
as when they are painted as the agents of the foreign powers. Of course,
as long as the looting component is present, a government may keep playing
that card but perhaps not up to the same degree.
There are still serious differences between various political groups in the
Convent so this component of the Terror may remain. Probably when killing of
all extremes is completed the Swamp takes charge (there was an interesting
argument that Robespierre actually was "tiger of the Swamp" who exterminated
both Left and Right but was destroyed when he forgot himself and tried to
attack the Swamp) and ends up with something like OTL Directorate politically
and something of the "wild capitalism" (like in OTL :-)) economically.
Now, in an absence of the never-ending wars there is no huge army ("which we
have to keep fighting because otherwise it will destroy us") and no excessively
popular generals (no wars means no spectacular successes and, as a result,
no popularity) so the republican government, flawed as it is, survives.
A separate issue is a fate of the royal family. Few options within this ATL
(not to be confused with the real life :-)):
(a) Louis and M-A are executed but nobody gives a damn (after all, Louis
XIV signed a treaty with Cromwell and James of Scotland did not start war
with England over execution of his mother, Russian record by that time is
even worse: Ivan VI and Peter III had been murdered, family of Ivan VI had
been held in a close confinement for decades so Catherine II as a defender
of the legitimacy is not a very convincing figure). The only really concerned
figure, Leopold II, has plenty of the close relatives left and one sister
more or less does not really matter. Perhaps we can assume that at this time
he has some military or diplomatic conflict wither with the Ottomans or with Prussia and is forced to adjust his priorities (anyway, there was a short
period of the normal relations between the Republic and Hapsburgs).
(b) They are held under the close guard (perhaps in more comfortable
conditions than in OTL) and are smart enough not to try to escape or to
have communication with the émigrés.
(c) Louis is smart enough to abdicate (highly unlikely but not 100% impossible)
and either allowed to live comfortably (but under the supervision) in some
estate or permitted to leave France because as an abdicated monarch in exile
(even if he has second thoughts later) he is much less attractive figure than
as a martyr: his leadership capacities were close to zero. Anyway, his
execution achieved nothing practical: his brothers remained alive (and hardly
were a noticeable factor prior to 1814).
A byproduct: no huge armies of the OTL Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars.
How the European affairs will develop for the next few decades without all
these wars?
The French Republic at peace with its neighbors. Eventually, there could be
some "conventional" wars of a limited scale but no major changes on a map, at
least in Europe.
None of the "Great Powers" has to spend enormous money on the military
buildup and campaigns and the OTL soldiers are engaged in the local economies.
Most probably, British-French economic competition is still there but there
is no Continental System and the things are continue in more natural way.
There is an opening for the French penetration into the Russian market
(practical after annexation of the Black Sea coast and creation of the ports
there): a treaty had been signed just before the fall of the Ancient Regime
and in ATL it is picked up by the Republican government.
Catherine II is less obsessed with the "Jackobins" scare and perhaps
this may prevent the 2nd Partition of Poland (1792). Well, it probably
would not because Catherine II was angered by the very fact of the independent
constitutional activities in Poland but, OTOH, she started a war just to
rollback these reforms, partition, after the Polish defeat, was Prussian
idea. Anyway, with some stretch of imagination we can have a surviving
independent Polish state (continued internal mess may eventually result in
its disappearance but let's be optimistic :-)).
HRE survives for unknown number of years.
Prussia is not forced to modernize its military system for at least few
decades to follow so the unification of Germany may not happen in the OTL
form and timeline.
Italian states remain the same which, among other things, means independent
Venice.
Spain keeps drifting peacefully in the same direction but an absence of the
OTL events may make liberation of the Spanish American colonies much more
problematic: Spain still has a navy and an army.
Britain - ????
Leopold II comes to a cynical conclusion that a fate of his sister and her
family does not worth a major war and that the ongoing events are French
internal business and Frederick William II of Prussia concurs so there is no Declaration of Pillnitz as a triggering point. OTOH, unlike OTL French
republican government manages to keep revolutionary rhetoric under control
limiting it strictly to France and the issues French.
The 1st Coalition did not happen, French Republic did not start its military
buildup followed by the aggressive campaigns.
How likely the Reign of Terror would be without the OTL hysteria of "they are
trying to get us!"? On their own the aristocrats would not look as dangerous
as when they are painted as the agents of the foreign powers. Of course,
as long as the looting component is present, a government may keep playing
that card but perhaps not up to the same degree.
There are still serious differences between various political groups in the
Convent so this component of the Terror may remain. Probably when killing of
all extremes is completed the Swamp takes charge (there was an interesting
argument that Robespierre actually was "tiger of the Swamp" who exterminated
both Left and Right but was destroyed when he forgot himself and tried to
attack the Swamp) and ends up with something like OTL Directorate politically
and something of the "wild capitalism" (like in OTL :-)) economically.
Now, in an absence of the never-ending wars there is no huge army ("which we
have to keep fighting because otherwise it will destroy us") and no excessively
popular generals (no wars means no spectacular successes and, as a result,
no popularity) so the republican government, flawed as it is, survives.
A separate issue is a fate of the royal family. Few options within this ATL
(not to be confused with the real life :-)):
(a) Louis and M-A are executed but nobody gives a damn (after all, Louis
XIV signed a treaty with Cromwell and James of Scotland did not start war
with England over execution of his mother, Russian record by that time is
even worse: Ivan VI and Peter III had been murdered, family of Ivan VI had
been held in a close confinement for decades so Catherine II as a defender
of the legitimacy is not a very convincing figure). The only really concerned
figure, Leopold II, has plenty of the close relatives left and one sister
more or less does not really matter. Perhaps we can assume that at this time
he has some military or diplomatic conflict wither with the Ottomans or with Prussia and is forced to adjust his priorities (anyway, there was a short
period of the normal relations between the Republic and Hapsburgs).
(b) They are held under the close guard (perhaps in more comfortable
conditions than in OTL) and are smart enough not to try to escape or to
have communication with the émigrés.
(c) Louis is smart enough to abdicate (highly unlikely but not 100% impossible)
and either allowed to live comfortably (but under the supervision) in some
estate or permitted to leave France because as an abdicated monarch in exile
(even if he has second thoughts later) he is much less attractive figure than
as a martyr: his leadership capacities were close to zero. Anyway, his
execution achieved nothing practical: his brothers remained alive (and hardly
were a noticeable factor prior to 1814).
A byproduct: no huge armies of the OTL Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars.
How the European affairs will develop for the next few decades without all
these wars?
The French Republic at peace with its neighbors. Eventually, there could be
some "conventional" wars of a limited scale but no major changes on a map, at
least in Europe.
None of the "Great Powers" has to spend enormous money on the military
buildup and campaigns and the OTL soldiers are engaged in the local economies.
Most probably, British-French economic competition is still there but there
is no Continental System and the things are continue in more natural way.
There is an opening for the French penetration into the Russian market
(practical after annexation of the Black Sea coast and creation of the ports
there): a treaty had been signed just before the fall of the Ancient Regime
and in ATL it is picked up by the Republican government.
Catherine II is less obsessed with the "Jackobins" scare and perhaps
this may prevent the 2nd Partition of Poland (1792). Well, it probably
would not because Catherine II was angered by the very fact of the independent
constitutional activities in Poland but, OTOH, she started a war just to
rollback these reforms, partition, after the Polish defeat, was Prussian
idea. Anyway, with some stretch of imagination we can have a surviving
independent Polish state (continued internal mess may eventually result in
its disappearance but let's be optimistic :-)).
HRE survives for unknown number of years.
Prussia is not forced to modernize its military system for at least few
decades to follow so the unification of Germany may not happen in the OTL
form and timeline.
Italian states remain the same which, among other things, means independent
Venice.
Spain keeps drifting peacefully in the same direction but an absence of the
OTL events may make liberation of the Spanish American colonies much more
problematic: Spain still has a navy and an army.
Britain - ????