Discussion:
Kim Jung Un is arrested
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Rhino
2018-04-29 04:20:27 UTC
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Here's one that's ripped straight from the headlines: suppose Kim Jung
Un is arrested by the South Koreans the moment he steps into South Korea
to meet the South Korean president for peace talks. The charge: crimes
against the Korean people.

What happens next? Do America and/or Japan press the South Koreans to
release Kim? Or were they behind the arrest? What do the South Koreans
do next? What do the North Koreans do? What would China, the only major
ally of the North Koreans do?
--
Rhino
SolomonW
2018-04-29 14:06:26 UTC
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Post by Rhino
Here's one that's ripped straight from the headlines: suppose Kim Jung
Un is arrested by the South Koreans the moment he steps into South Korea
to meet the South Korean president for peace talks. The charge: crimes
against the Korean people.
What happens next? Do America and/or Japan press the South Koreans to
release Kim? Or were they behind the arrest? What do the South Koreans
do next? What do the North Koreans do? What would China, the only major
ally of the North Koreans do?
It would be a major blow to the leadership of North Korea because his
sister was with him.
Rhino
2018-05-01 03:49:33 UTC
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Post by SolomonW
Post by Rhino
Here's one that's ripped straight from the headlines: suppose Kim Jung
Un is arrested by the South Koreans the moment he steps into South Korea
to meet the South Korean president for peace talks. The charge: crimes
against the Korean people.
What happens next? Do America and/or Japan press the South Koreans to
release Kim? Or were they behind the arrest? What do the South Koreans
do next? What do the North Koreans do? What would China, the only major
ally of the North Koreans do?
It would be a major blow to the leadership of North Korea because his
sister was with him.
I imagine the average North Korean would be jubilant that he was gone
and terrified that he would be released. But, of course, there is
inevitably a layer of senior people who are not Kim who might see this
as an opportunity to take over, once they were *very* sure he was not
coming back. (I imagine it would be exceedingly dangerous for anyone to
make a move if there was the slightest doubt over whether he might be
back. I'm picturing trusted thugs that would have orders to kill anyone
who looked to be moving against him.)

The Chinese might well agitate the hardest for his release on the theory
that the devil they know is preferable to some unknown quantity in the
top ranks of the government or military. What form might the agitation
take though? Diplomatic protests? Or perhaps something as dramatic as
military posturing?

How might the rest of the world react? Given the world's frequent desire
to demonize the United States and blame everything on their
imperialism/colonialism/capitalism, I can well imagine that happening
here too if the US shows even the slightest sign of encouraging the
arrest. China, Cuba, and Venezuela would probably all be livid.

There are so many possible knock-ons for this that I'd probably have to
write all night to get even the major ones. But it's late (here) so I'll
leave it at this for now....
--
Rhino
SolomonW
2018-05-01 07:19:38 UTC
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Post by Rhino
Post by SolomonW
Post by Rhino
Here's one that's ripped straight from the headlines: suppose Kim Jung
Un is arrested by the South Koreans the moment he steps into South Korea
to meet the South Korean president for peace talks. The charge: crimes
against the Korean people.
What happens next? Do America and/or Japan press the South Koreans to
release Kim? Or were they behind the arrest? What do the South Koreans
do next? What do the North Koreans do? What would China, the only major
ally of the North Koreans do?
It would be a major blow to the leadership of North Korea because his
sister was with him.
I imagine the average North Korean would be jubilant that he was gone
and terrified that he would be released.
I doubt that they have been feed nonsense that he and hid family are God
figure for 60 years.
Post by Rhino
But, of course, there is
inevitably a layer of senior people who are not Kim who might see this
as an opportunity to take over, once they were *very* sure he was not
coming back. (I imagine it would be exceedingly dangerous for anyone to
make a move if there was the slightest doubt over whether he might be
back. I'm picturing trusted thugs that would have orders to kill anyone
who looked to be moving against him.)
I am sure; the fight will be on.
Post by Rhino
The Chinese might well agitate the hardest for his release on the theory
that the devil they know is preferable to some unknown quantity in the
top ranks of the government or military. What form might the agitation
take though? Diplomatic protests? Or perhaps something as dramatic as
military posturing?
Most of the UN would too.

What happens if after say Angela Merkel got seized in India and was charged
with some crimes?
Post by Rhino
How might the rest of the world react? Given the world's frequent desire
to demonize the United States and blame everything on their
imperialism/colonialism/capitalism, I can well imagine that happening
here too if the US shows even the slightest sign of encouraging the
arrest. China, Cuba, and Venezuela would probably all be livid.
There are so many possible knock-ons for this that I'd probably have to
write all night to get even the major ones. But it's late (here) so I'll
leave it at this for now....
Imagine the situation when the Spanish grabbed the Aztec king. It worked,
but it did not stop a war.

A war in Korea could be very serious even if it lasts only a short time,
North Korea has in addition to missiles, large numbers of artillery,
possibly nuclear weapons and a significant stockpile of chemical warfare
agents.
Dimensional Traveler
2018-05-01 15:00:39 UTC
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Post by SolomonW
Post by Rhino
Post by SolomonW
Post by Rhino
Here's one that's ripped straight from the headlines: suppose Kim Jung
Un is arrested by the South Koreans the moment he steps into South Korea
to meet the South Korean president for peace talks. The charge: crimes
against the Korean people.
What happens next? Do America and/or Japan press the South Koreans to
release Kim? Or were they behind the arrest? What do the South Koreans
do next? What do the North Koreans do? What would China, the only major
ally of the North Koreans do?
It would be a major blow to the leadership of North Korea because his
sister was with him.
I imagine the average North Korean would be jubilant that he was gone
and terrified that he would be released.
I doubt that they have been feed nonsense that he and hid family are God
figure for 60 years.
This. Personally I suspect that the result would be an immediate
resumption of the war. Especially if Kim Jung Un got shot in the
crossfire, because there's no way the North Korean guards would NOT
respond by shooting as soon as they saw the South Koreans try to arrest
or detain him.
--
Inquiring minds want to know while minds with a self-preservation
instinct are running screaming.
SolomonW
2018-05-01 15:51:09 UTC
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Post by Dimensional Traveler
Post by SolomonW
Post by Rhino
Post by SolomonW
Post by Rhino
Here's one that's ripped straight from the headlines: suppose Kim Jung
Un is arrested by the South Koreans the moment he steps into South Korea
to meet the South Korean president for peace talks. The charge: crimes
against the Korean people.
What happens next? Do America and/or Japan press the South Koreans to
release Kim? Or were they behind the arrest? What do the South Koreans
do next? What do the North Koreans do? What would China, the only major
ally of the North Koreans do?
It would be a major blow to the leadership of North Korea because his
sister was with him.
I imagine the average North Korean would be jubilant that he was gone
and terrified that he would be released.
I doubt that they have been feed nonsense that he and hid family are God
figure for 60 years.
This. Personally I suspect that the result would be an immediate
resumption of the war. Especially if Kim Jung Un got shot in the
crossfire, because there's no way the North Korean guards would NOT
respond by shooting as soon as they saw the South Koreans try to arrest
or detain him.
The guards surely could be neutralized before Kim Jung Un is grabbed.

The closest historical parallel, I can think of is the Spanish grabbing the
Aztec king, who did not stop the war. The capture of Incan Emperor
Atahualpa did not stop the war either.

But even if we accept that war does not happen then it is unlikely that any
peaceful democratic government will come to power in the North. I suspect
in peace little will change in this POD
Rhino
2018-05-07 00:51:50 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by SolomonW
Post by Rhino
Post by SolomonW
Post by Rhino
Here's one that's ripped straight from the headlines: suppose Kim Jung
Un is arrested by the South Koreans the moment he steps into South Korea
to meet the South Korean president for peace talks. The charge: crimes
against the Korean people.
What happens next? Do America and/or Japan press the South Koreans to
release Kim? Or were they behind the arrest? What do the South Koreans
do next? What do the North Koreans do? What would China, the only major
ally of the North Koreans do?
It would be a major blow to the leadership of North Korea because his
sister was with him.
I imagine the average North Korean would be jubilant that he was gone
and terrified that he would be released.
I doubt that they have been feed nonsense that he and hid family are God
figure for 60 years.
This.  Personally I suspect that the result would be an immediate
resumption of the war.  Especially if Kim Jung Un got shot in the
crossfire, because there's no way the North Korean guards would NOT
respond by shooting as soon as they saw the South Koreans try to arrest
or detain him.
Who would lead the war on the North Korean side with Kim Jung Un dead or
captured? Surely not Kim Jung Un!

The North Koreans have a substantial military but who would be in charge
in their leader's absence? While there may be a formal command structure
that says who makes decisions in Kim's absence, he would also have been
very careful about not letting any potential rivals have power. But the
problem is that anyone having power is automatically a potential rival!
Somehow, Kim has to balance the need to have competent people -
virtually all men in North Korea - at the top levels of his government
and military but he also has to make sure that they are unswervingly
loyal to him too and will not even THINK about using the forces at their
command to cut him out of power and put themselves at the top of the
pyramid or - heaven forbid - establish a democracy so that people can
choose their own leaders.

Remember that Kim has executed members of his own family, including a
half-brother and an uncle, when he found them insufficiently loyal or
somehow a risk to his power. So who does he actually TRUST to be in
charge when he's away?

I'm betting that he doesn't fully trust ANYONE and keeps them all on
very short leashes, surrounded by informers and under constant
surveillance to make sure they aren't up to something that undermines
his position.

Then again, he's obviously made two foreign trips now - one to China a
few weeks back and the more recent one to Panmunjon - so he must trust
*someone*, at least for a day or two.

Still, I have to imagine he is very uneasy about not being in Pyongyang
overseeing everything personally. I'll bet that some small (or maybe
large) part of him worries that someone will take advantage of his
absence to improve their own position, potentially to the point of
taking over. And that would certainly undermine the North Korean command
structure and the military in terms of re-starting the war. I wouldn't
be terribly surprised if at least a few generals make the ancient
realization that the cat's away so now the mice can play. Some may dare
to think that this is a golden opportunity to take over themselves,
either to perpetuate the existing system but with themselves in charge
or possibly even to overthrow the system. After all, these people all
live in perpetual fear of their own lives at the whim of their mercurial
dictators so I have to believe that in some interior corner of their
minds, they relish the thought of being free of the whole oppressive
system hanging over their heads....
--
Rhino
Dimensional Traveler
2018-05-07 02:56:04 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Rhino
Post by SolomonW
Post by Rhino
Post by SolomonW
Post by Rhino
Here's one that's ripped straight from the headlines: suppose Kim Jung
Un is arrested by the South Koreans the moment he steps into South Korea
to meet the South Korean president for peace talks. The charge: crimes
against the Korean people.
What happens next? Do America and/or Japan press the South Koreans to
release Kim? Or were they behind the arrest? What do the South Koreans
do next? What do the North Koreans do? What would China, the only major
ally of the North Koreans do?
It would be a major blow to the leadership of North Korea because his
sister was with him.
I imagine the average North Korean would be jubilant that he was gone
and terrified that he would be released.
I doubt that they have been feed nonsense that he and hid family are God
figure for 60 years.
This.  Personally I suspect that the result would be an immediate
resumption of the war.  Especially if Kim Jung Un got shot in the
crossfire, because there's no way the North Korean guards would NOT
respond by shooting as soon as they saw the South Koreans try to
arrest or detain him.
Who would lead the war on the North Korean side with Kim Jung Un dead or
captured? Surely not Kim Jung Un!
The decision to _restart_ the war would not be made by anyone in the
North Korean capital. Seoul made that decision as soon as they decided
to try to capture KJU. The shooting would start as soon as the South
Korean guards moved to grab KJU and take out his guards. And once the
shooting starts it will spread, _FAST_. The entire DMZ will be engaged
before any higher command authority could stop it.

Now, whether the NK military command could successfully prosecute the
resulting war is a different matter but they won't have a choice about
there being a war. And given that it was _South_ Korea that started it
the Chinese WILL support the North. Who KJU may or may not trust will
be irrelevant, who the Chinese trust will be relevant.
Post by Rhino
The North Koreans have a substantial military but who would be in charge
in their leader's absence? While there may be a formal command structure
that says who makes decisions in Kim's absence, he would also have been
very careful about not letting any potential rivals have power. But the
problem is that anyone having power is automatically a potential rival!
Somehow, Kim has to balance the need to have competent people -
virtually all men in North Korea - at the top levels of his government
and military but he also has to make sure that they are unswervingly
loyal to him too and will not even THINK about using the forces at their
command to cut him out of power and put themselves at the top of the
pyramid or - heaven forbid - establish a democracy so that people can
choose their own leaders.
Remember that Kim has executed members of his own family, including a
half-brother and an uncle, when he found them insufficiently loyal or
somehow a risk to his power. So who does he actually TRUST to be in
charge when he's away?
I'm betting that he doesn't fully trust ANYONE and keeps them all on
very short leashes, surrounded by informers and under constant
surveillance to make sure they aren't up to something that undermines
his position.
Then again, he's obviously made two foreign trips now - one to China a
few weeks back and the more recent one to Panmunjon - so he must trust
*someone*, at least for a day or two.
Still, I have to imagine he is very uneasy about not being in Pyongyang
overseeing everything personally. I'll bet that some small (or maybe
large) part of him worries that someone will take advantage of his
absence to improve their own position, potentially to the point of
taking over. And that would certainly undermine the North Korean command
structure and the military in terms of re-starting the war. I wouldn't
be terribly surprised if at least a few generals make the ancient
realization that the cat's away so now the mice can play. Some may dare
to think that this is a golden opportunity to take over themselves,
either to perpetuate the existing system but with themselves in charge
or possibly even to overthrow the system. After all, these people all
live in perpetual fear of their own lives at the whim of their mercurial
dictators so I have to believe that in some interior corner of their
minds, they relish the thought of being free of the whole oppressive
system hanging over their heads....
I think you are underestimating the effect two generations of propaganda
and indoctrination have had on the North Koreans. KJU is their _God_
and they really do believe the United States means to destroy them.
--
Inquiring minds want to know while minds with a self-preservation
instinct are running screaming.
Rhino
2018-05-07 03:49:02 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Dimensional Traveler
Post by Rhino
Post by SolomonW
Post by Rhino
Post by SolomonW
Post by Rhino
Here's one that's ripped straight from the headlines: suppose Kim Jung
Un is arrested by the South Koreans the moment he steps into South Korea
to meet the South Korean president for peace talks. The charge: crimes
against the Korean people.
What happens next? Do America and/or Japan press the South Koreans to
release Kim? Or were they behind the arrest? What do the South Koreans
do next? What do the North Koreans do? What would China, the only major
ally of the North Koreans do?
It would be a major blow to the leadership of North Korea because his
sister was with him.
I imagine the average North Korean would be jubilant that he was gone
and terrified that he would be released.
I doubt that they have been feed nonsense that he and hid family are God
figure for 60 years.
This.  Personally I suspect that the result would be an immediate
resumption of the war.  Especially if Kim Jung Un got shot in the
crossfire, because there's no way the North Korean guards would NOT
respond by shooting as soon as they saw the South Koreans try to
arrest or detain him.
Who would lead the war on the North Korean side with Kim Jung Un dead
or captured? Surely not Kim Jung Un!
The decision to _restart_ the war would not be made by anyone in the
North Korean capital.  Seoul made that decision as soon as they decided
to try to capture KJU.  The shooting would start as soon as the South
Korean guards moved to grab KJU and take out his guards.  And once the
shooting starts it will spread, _FAST_.  The entire DMZ will be engaged
before any higher command authority could stop it.
Now, whether the NK military command could successfully prosecute the
resulting war is a different matter but they won't have a choice about
there being a war.  And given that it was _South_ Korea that started it
the Chinese WILL support the North.  Who KJU may or may not trust will
be irrelevant, who the Chinese trust will be relevant.
Those are all valid points. I suppose much depends on what orders he
left with his subordinates who stayed in NK. He may well have demanded
that any mistreatment of him be greeted with an immediate and
devastating attack on SK and a launch of all nukes at the USA.
Post by Dimensional Traveler
Post by Rhino
The North Koreans have a substantial military but who would be in
charge in their leader's absence? While there may be a formal command
structure that says who makes decisions in Kim's absence, he would
also have been very careful about not letting any potential rivals
have power. But the problem is that anyone having power is
automatically a potential rival! Somehow, Kim has to balance the need
to have competent people - virtually all men in North Korea - at the
top levels of his government and military but he also has to make sure
that they are unswervingly loyal to him too and will not even THINK
about using the forces at their command to cut him out of power and
put themselves at the top of the pyramid or - heaven forbid -
establish a democracy so that people can choose their own leaders.
Remember that Kim has executed members of his own family, including a
half-brother and an uncle, when he found them insufficiently loyal or
somehow a risk to his power. So who does he actually TRUST to be in
charge when he's away?
I'm betting that he doesn't fully trust ANYONE and keeps them all on
very short leashes, surrounded by informers and under constant
surveillance to make sure they aren't up to something that undermines
his position.
Then again, he's obviously made two foreign trips now - one to China a
few weeks back and the more recent one to Panmunjon - so he must trust
*someone*, at least for a day or two.
Still, I have to imagine he is very uneasy about not being in
Pyongyang overseeing everything personally. I'll bet that some small
(or maybe large) part of him worries that someone will take advantage
of his absence to improve their own position, potentially to the point
of taking over. And that would certainly undermine the North Korean
command structure and the military in terms of re-starting the war. I
wouldn't be terribly surprised if at least a few generals make the
ancient realization that the cat's away so now the mice can play. Some
may dare to think that this is a golden opportunity to take over
themselves, either to perpetuate the existing system but with
themselves in charge or possibly even to overthrow the system. After
all, these people all live in perpetual fear of their own lives at the
whim of their mercurial dictators so I have to believe that in some
interior corner of their minds, they relish the thought of being free
of the whole oppressive system hanging over their heads....
I think you are underestimating the effect two generations of propaganda
and indoctrination have had on the North Koreans.  KJU is their _God_
and they really do believe the United States means to destroy them.
I've read a number of accounts of defectors from NK and they admit that
they bought the propaganda that they'd heard all their lives; yet each
and every one of them had a long, difficult and quite dangerous journey
to leave NK and get to SK or wherever they ended up. So they couldn't
REALLY have believed they were going to wind up somewhere worse than
they started out. In recent years, more and more black market DVDs have
entered NK and the people there are increasingly aware that other
countries have very different lives - in most cases, much more
prosperous and happy. That news *has* to get around, although I imagine
North Koreans are VERY cautious about who they talk to and what they say
for fear that someone will inform on them to the secret police.

Whether they believe that the US means to destroy them is not clear to
me. Do they really believe that? Or do they realize it's just a line
that Kim uses to justify his actions and keep them oppressed?

It would be fascinating to talk to the defectors and see what they truly
think.
--
Rhino
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